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Propane hits three-week low as winter rally stalls

  • Market: LPG
  • 30/09/25

Propane's long-standing winter rally is faltering. Northwest European large cargo prices have dropped to a three-week low, reversing seasonal patterns as record US inflows reshape global trade balances and weigh on the market.

The cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) large cargo value fell by $8.50/t on Monday to $468.50/t, leaving propane $120/t below year-earlier levels. A lack of urgent buying has exposed the market to broader weakness in energy prices. There is no sign of the seasonal restocking that typically builds momentum at this time of year.

That cycle has defined the propane market for decades, with exceptions only in 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and during the early Covid-19 years.

In 2024, prices surged by nearly 19pc between June and September, ending the quarter at $589/t. The year before, the rally was sharper, with a 35pc rise from $403.50/t in early June to $545.50/t by late September.

That pattern is even clearer when measured against crude. In 2024, propane gained nearly 16 percentage points relative to Brent between June and August, compared with around 9 percentage points in 2023. This year, by contrast, the grade has risen just 5pc outright, while its ratio to crude has stagnated in the mid-50s since June. The lack of movement suggests propane's seasonal cushion has all but disappeared.

The explanation lies more in supply than demand, and increasingly in geopolitics. Record inflows from the US — totalling 5.69mn t in the first three quarters of 2025 — stem from the trade shock triggered by Donald Trump's "Liberation day" and continue to pour into Europe.

The tit-for-tat tariffs imposed in April by Washington and Beijing were only briefly suspended a month later. With no lasting settlement, US LPG exports to China remain subject to a 10pc duty, leaving Europe as the main outlet for displaced volumes. This has removed any urgency for European buyers to secure positions early. Ample availability has capped values and kept the market sidelined, even as the traditional heating season approaches.

The weakness is reflected in the forward swap cif ARA curve, with the October-November paper spread at a $3/t contango, implying bearishness for October. November is not much stronger. Market sources report little urgency in spot purchases, with buyers reluctant to commit in the face of plentiful supply.

The divergence from historical patterns has wider implications. If propane no longer responds to the pull of the heating season, a structural reset may be under way. Europe could be entering an era where price floors are dictated not by seasonal weather but by Atlantic cargo flows — a shift with consequences for producers, traders and consumers.

For a market long accustomed to winter-driven tightness, this year's third-quarter slump may mark more than an anomaly. It could signal the end of propane's seasonality and the start of a new price regime built on structural oversupply.

By Efcharis Sgourou

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03/12/25

Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream

Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream

Dubai, 3 December (Argus) — Saudi state-controlled Aramco has begun production from the first phase of the giant Jafurah natural gas project, the finance ministry said late on Tuesday. In its 2026 budget statement, the finance ministry listed the phase one start-up as one of Saudi Arabia's achievements in 2025. It didn't specify a date, but it is likely to have been in the past few days. It said production began at 450mn ft³/d, which is two and a half times the rate at which Aramco had long projected. With in-place reserves of 229 trillion ft³ (6.87 trillion m³) of raw gas and 75bn bl of condensate, Jafurah is the largest unconventional gas field in the Mideast Gulf and represents a major pillar of Aramco's ambitious gas expansion plans. Aramco has yet to announce the start up. It previously said it expects to lift sales gas output ꟷ or net production ꟷ to 650mn ft³/d by the end of 2026 in phase one. It is unclear if this stronger-than-anticipated start-up rate could translate into a higher end-2026 target. A second phase is scheduled to come on stream in 2027, to lift production to 2bn ft³/d by the end of the decade, Aramco has said. Aramco has an ambitious programme to expand gas production by more than 80pc by the end of the decade, relative to a 2021 baseline of 9.2bn ft³/d. This implies output of at least 14.7bn ft³/d by 2030, with Jafurah delivering more than one-third of the increase. Jafurah will also produce about 420mn ft³/d of ethane and 630,000 b/d of NGLs and condensate as by-products by 2030. The ethane and NGLs will be sent to the Riyas fractionation plant, which is being built as part of the phase two development. The condensate will be sent to the Juaymah terminal, where Aramco is expanding its storage and export facilities. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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G20 launch clean cooking infrastructure investment plan

02/12/25
News
02/12/25

G20 launch clean cooking infrastructure investment plan

G20 leaders endorsed an infrastructure investment plan for Africa during last month's summit, writes Waldemar Jaszczyk London, 2 December (Argus) — South Africa succeeded in making access to clean cooking in Africa a defining issue of its G20 presidency following the summit in the country late last month, after leaders endorsed an infrastructure investment plan for the continent. But a combination of supply shortages and logistical bottlenecks are derailing the LPG market's expansion at home. The G20 leaders' declaration , adopted on 22 November at the summit in Johannesburg, launched the Voluntary Infrastructure Investment Action Plan to close the clean cooking access gap in sub-Saharan Africa. It provides the strongest political recognition to date of the clean cooking crisis in Africa, with explicit inclusion of LPG as a part of the solution. The group acknowledged access to such fuels as a global energy challenge, expressing deep alarm over 2mn deaths a year caused on the continent from indoor air pollution from traditional fuel use. All countries bar the US backed the plan. The plan outlines a set of voluntary measures required to scale up investment in fuels, infrastructure and last-mile distribution of clean cooking fuels, noting that 75pc of those in sub-Saharan Africa that gained access to clean cooking in the past five years was through LPG. It calls for African governments to align their energy and fiscal policies with clean cooking goals by elevating it as a national priority. Donor states were encouraged to increase concessional financing, with additional funding coming through long-term carbon credit offtake agreements and mobilising the private sector. The group also suggests establishing an infrastructure investment fund and risk-sharing instruments to increase lending to clean cooking companies. The World Liquid Gas Association (WLGA) calls the declaration a major opportunity to anchor LPG in clean cooking policy, financing, and development pathways across the continent. Standing elevation It was the first time clean cooking in Africa was elevated as a standing discussion item at a G20 summit. But South Africa's successes in this regard fails to reflect its struggles to transition to LPG at home, panellists said at the G20 Africa Energy Investment Forum held the previous day in Johannesburg. Refinery closures and a fragmented transport network have constrained LPG market growth despite demand being relatively modest at under 500,000 t/yr, state-owned PetroSA interim chief executive Sesakho Magadla said. Domestic LPG output almost halved to 123,000t in 2024 from 235,000t in 2020, Argus Consulting data show, following the closure of Engen's 105,000 b/d and Sapref's 180,000 b/d refineries near Durban. This has left the market entirely dependent on imports, which grew by 140pc to 589,000t over the four years to 2024. Getting the refineries back online to reduce imports is a priority, Magadla said. Restoring PetroSA's 45,000 b/d gas-to-liquids plant at Mossel Bay has faced "competition challenges" but is back on track after the government began seeking new partners to revive the site. The plant has been idle since 2020 and was a major domestic LPG supplier. State-owned oil firm SANPC is restarting the Sapref refinery in Durban and expects to redeploy its storage infrastructure this year. Logistical bottlenecks are also preventing large parts of the country receiving supply. PetroSA plans to improve rail links — particularly from Saldanha Bay — to ease congestion and move LPG at scale. Saldanha Bay hosts Sunrise Energy's 210,000 t/yr LPG import terminal and could soon be joined by state-owned Strategic Fuel Fund's planned 192,000 t/yr facility . The Western Cape province remains reliant on imports and faces chronic shortages during peak winter demand. Another challenge for the region is import capacity limitations, trading firm Petredec said. This problem, as well as poor logistics, add about a 10-20pc premium to delivered prices, or $100/t outright, the IEA said. Africa urgently needs infrastructure capable of handling higher volumes, including terminals that can receive VLGCs, Petredec communications head Tamsin Donaldson said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop 30 group launches school clean cooking platform

02/12/25
News
02/12/25

Cop 30 group launches school clean cooking platform

The platform is designed to close policy, financing and implementation gaps, writes Yasmin Zaman London, 2 December (Argus) — A coalition of development bodies, governments and private-sector firms has launched a platform to accelerate the shift to clean cooking in schools in developing economies at the UN's Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil. The Platform for Clean Cooking in Schools is designed to close policy, financing and implementation gaps that have slowed progress in replacing biomass use in schools — largely with LPG. The initiative is being led by non-profit organisation Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) with support from the World Food Programme,the School Meals Coalition, UKAid's Modern Energy Cooking Services programme, the Iceland government, the Middle East Green Initiative, the Global Platform for Action on Sustainable Energy in Displacement Settings and private investor Lightrock. Schools provide meals to more than 450mn children daily worldwide, making them one of the largest users of cooking fuels after households. In many low and middle-income countries, institutional kitchens still rely on firewood and charcoal, contributing to deforestation, indoor air pollution and carbon emissions. The group says school clean cooking projects offer a high-leverage entry point for wider clean cooking transitions as they reduce exposure to smoke, cut fuel use costs and help familiarise households with modern cooking technologies. The growing emphasis on schools in countries such as Kenya reflects the scale of the opportunity, US-based non-profit the Clean Cooking Alliance's chief external affairs officer, Julia Belopolsky, says. "Schools consume large volumes of wood and charcoal. Transitioning those institutions to clean cooking solutions really delivers outsized benefits for forests, air quality and human health," she says. Kenya has placed institutional cooking "at the centre of its national transition strategy", with the CCA-backed Clean Cooking Delivery Unit in the Office of the President co-ordinating the work of energy, environment, education and health ministries. She pointed to Kenya's recent high-level summit on financing institutional clean cooking as an example of this joined-up approach. The new Cop 30 platform "follows the same logic and seeks to amplify and replicate the work that's being done in Kenya and Tanzania and elsewhere", Belopolsky says. Aligning clean cooking investments with school meal programmes can unlock scale that has been difficult to achieve, the group says. Work to transition schools is under way in 10 pilot countries, with plans to expand this by another 10 by 2026 and reach "global scale" by 2030. The platform aims to match policy ambition with finance and delivery, SEforALL chief executive Damilola Ogunbiyi says. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Q&A: Cop 30 launchpad for clean cooking revolution: CCA

02/12/25
News
02/12/25

Q&A: Cop 30 launchpad for clean cooking revolution: CCA

London, 2 December (Argus) — The UN's Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, last month pushed clean cooking in lower-income countries higher up the global agenda as part of a just energy transition. US-based non-profit the Clean Cooking Alliance (CCA), working alongside the likes of the IEA and the World Liquid Gas Association, has played a central role in bringing attention to the issue and helping to tackle the financing and policy barriers faced in shifting to cleaner fuels, particularly LPG. Argus' Waldemar Jaszczyk spoke with CCA chief of staff and chief external affairs officer Jillene Belopolsky about what the event delivered and what still needs to happen: What were your overall impressions of Cop 30? Cop 30 was a very exciting and exhilarating experience as always, especially because it made it clear that clean cooking has moved from the margins to the mainstream of climate conversations. We now see it explicitly linked to energy access, nature, food systems and gender equality and not treated as a niche issue. The big challenge remains turning that visibility into scale of finance and delivery capacity that countries actually need to implement their ambitious targets. How has clean cooking become more visible at the summit? Cop 25 had one session on clean cooking on the last day in a backroom. But in the past few years, we've seen high-level multi-stakeholder events and commitments. This momentum has been building owing to the advocacy and engagement of organisations as they, like CCA, are really driving awareness through global platforms. The G20 and G7 included an explicit commitment to clean cooking this year. The IEA summit on clean cooking in Africa last year mobilised $2bn worth of pledges. African governments have elevated clean cooking in their energy and climate plans. Regional bodies such as the Africa Energy Commission are driving a more co-ordinated approach. At Cop 30, we had governments, development finance institutions and firms debating not whether to act but how to scale faster, mobilise finance and integrate clean cooking into just energy transition strategies. We also saw the launch of the platform for clean cooking in schools (see p2). Was clean cooking adequately included in climate planning in the past? In the early years, clean cooking was definitely under-represented in climate planning, and there were many other larger-scale issues driving the agenda. But this has absolutely improved and we have seen steadily increasing recognition of cooking as a critical climate solution. As of July, 74pc of low and middle-income countries include household energy or explicit clean cooking measures in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). That is up from about two-thirds of that number before Cop 26. But there's still a gap between what is written on paper and the level of targets for finance and implementation required to close that gap by 2030. And that's why the CCA-led clean cooking and climate consortium has been providing technical and practical guidance to governments intending to use clean cooking interventions to achieve climate goals as part of their NDC targets or to create tradeable assets under an Article 6 framework. How is LPG's role as a clean cooking fuel in climate discussions evolving? The conversation is more open and evidence-based. CCA-sponsored research helped shift the tone by showing that the benefits of transitioning to LPG are bigger and more immediate than assumed. That evidence is landing well with policy makers, donors and investors. We're also seeing a more nuanced discussion emerge. Countries are looking at LPG, electricity and biofuels as complementary pathways rather than competing narratives. Analysis such as the IEA's roadmap show that in the least costly pathway, LPG provides access for more than 60pc of people that require access. It does not mean that LPG is the answer everywhere or forever. But there is a growing acceptance that when used efficiently and paired with a long-term credible transition, it can play a vital near-term role. Has the summit delivered in terms of funding for clean cooking? The IEA roadmap estimates that universal clean cooking access in Africa will require roughly $37bn of total investment between now and 2040, equivalent to $2bn/yr. The IEA's summit in 2024 mobilised $2.2bn in commitments, of which about $470mn has already been dispersed, which is a really meaningful step but still only a fraction of what's required. It's important to highlight that there is very strong policy momentum. Since the IEA's summit, more than 70pc of the population without access to clean cooking live in countries that have strengthened clean cooking policy frameworks. Cop creates a lot of agreements and investment vehicles, and there is an opportunity to leverage this finance for clean cooking. Cop can help direct resources toward more integrated, holistic approaches. What barriers are preventing this level of investment being reached? Limited bankable project pipelines, gaps in government delivery capacity, policy and tariff uncertainty and inconsistent carbon market rules. Investors also cite currency risk affordability and fuel price volatility. Cop 30 helped advance some of these conversations, particularly around the high-integrity carbon markets, stronger clean cooking signals, NDCs and alignment with larger nature and food security agendas. But the progress does not hinge on Cop alone. CCA and our partners have been working to address some of these bottlenecks. We're supporting governments through national clean cooking delivery units. We're improving the data and planning tools, strengthening standards and carbon methodology and helping to structure real project pipelines that can attract capital. While Cop adds that visibility and momentum, this core work of derisking markets and building investable opportunities happens every day across countries. How can the LPG sector tap into carbon credits to become more affordable? Carbon finance is one of the most immediate and promising ways to overcome affordability barriers. It can help reduce upfront costs such as cylinders, connections and efficient LPG stoves and can provide targeted subsidies to help reach the poorest households — as long as credits are generated through high-integrity projects. Initiatives such as the CCA-led consortium and emerging tools such as the clear carbon methodology are designed to ensure that any LPG-related carbon projects are transparent, conservative in their claims and aligned with NDCs rather than being used as a licence to delay decarbonisation. We have worked hard to ensure this carbon methodology will be adopted by the UNFCCC and the voluntary standards bodies. It will be a game changer for the sector if done right. If Cop 30 fails to leverage the necessary financing for clean cooking, what is the CCA's plan to maintain momentum into 2026? We have never expected a single summit to close the finance gap. We definitely can't let the momentum fade. That's why our focus after Cop 30 is very practical. We are working to turn commitments into capital, turn pilots into portfolios of projects and help governments build the delivery systems that make investment viable. For us, that means expanding our clean cooking delivery units, supporting countries to sharpen clean cooking in their NDCs and investment plans and working closely with investors to structure high-integrity projects and affordable business models. Cop 30 is not the finish line, it's a launchpad. Share of people gaining access to clean cooking by 2040 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil boosts payouts for new LPG scheme by 2.6pc

02/12/25
News
02/12/25

Brazil boosts payouts for new LPG scheme by 2.6pc

Higher payments for LPG cylinder distributors could help bring the total received from the government to $1.3bn by the end of 2026, write Gabriel Lara and Matt Scotland Sao Paulo, 2 December (Argus) — Brazilian LPG distributors and retailers will receive about 174mn reals ($32.5mn) more than initially expected from the Brazilian government to meet higher demand for the Gas do Povo — or People's Gas — subsidy programme. The Brazilian mines and energy ministry increased the listed price to be paid to distributors of 13kg gas cylinders that will be given to millions of Brazilians by approximately 2.6pc following intense pressure from LPG distributors' union Sindigas. The average price of a gas cylinder in the country is now R103.93 compared with R101.26 set in October. The price update addresses some of the sector's concerns over profitability. But the scheme is still on course to affect LPG distributors operating in more remote regions of the country, especially those in north Brazil, distributors say. The People's Gas scheme came into effect on 24 November despite the proposal still working its way through congress . A final draft of the plan was due to be issued on 25 November but has been delayed owing to disruptions to the congressional agenda as a result of the UN's Cop 30 climate summit, which was held in Belem, Brazil, last month, the commission tasked with producing it says. But it is not expected to affect the initial roll-out of the programme. The government estimates it will have distributed the first 1mn LPG cylinders under the scheme by the end of 2025 and 65mn by the end of 2026. If this target is met, the sector should receive about R6.75bn. The price update has increased the price paid to distributors for gas cylinders delivered mainly in the southern, northern and northeastern regions of Brazil, where logistics costs are higher. Prices are 6pc higher than initially established in the south, 4.6pc higher in the north and 1.58pc higher in the northeast. The new pricing also includes monthly price updates that take into account international market conditions, and provides for an extraordinary update in cases of global LPG market supply or demand shocks. The subsidy scheme is likely to increase Brazil's LPG consumption next year, which will in turn necessitate greater imports, delegates heard at the World Liquid Gas Association's Liquid Gas Week in Rio de Janeiro in September. The programme will increase LPG sales by 5-8pc, Sindigas president Sergio Bandeira de Mello said on the sidelines of the event . Consumption stood at about 7.6mn t in 2024, Sindigas data show. But industry participants noted several regulatory concerns, including the ability to refill 13kg cylinders remotely and in small increments. Perverse incentive "If anybody can use anybody's cylinder, you run the risk of bringing organised crime to the distribution chain," de Mello said at the event. Allowing the purchase of fractional amounts of LPG additionally introduces higher costs for market participants, Carlos Ragazzo, a law professor at think-tank Fundacao Getulio Vargas, said. This encourages participants to look for ways to reduce costs. "There's a huge incentive… to not act correctly," he said. Brazil's seaborne LPG imports stood at close to 1.5mn t in January-November, down by 7.7pc on the year, according to Kpler, despite demand edging up by 1.6pc to early 6.5mn t, Sindigas data show. This may be partly owing to state-owned Petrobras boosting output in Rio de Janeiro from a new gas processing unit that opened in May and can produce about 730,000 t/yr. Delegates at Liquid Gas Week said growing demand from the People's Gas scheme would lift imports mainly from the US . But arrivals from the US fell by 26pc to 800,000t in January-November, while imports from Argentina grew by 28pc to 629,000t. The recent shift to Argentinian supply comes as Argentina's LPG production and exports surge as it develops its vast Vaca Muerta shale formation. Brazil LPG supply Brazil LPG demand Brazil LPG imports by origin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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