There are no oil or gas supply concerns yet in the EU as a result of the spreading war in the Mideast Gulf, the European Commission said today.
The de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz, the world's most important waterway for oil exports at the mouth of the Mideast Gulf, is likely to cause shortfalls of crude, LNG and other commodities.
But the commission said its gas and oil co-ordination groups met today and concluded there are no "immediate security of supply risks". No emergency oil stocks have been released and gas storage levels are stable, it said.
Price moves in energy markets since the start of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran on 28 February have been suggesting some concern about future supply shortfalls, with front-month Ice Brent crude up by more than $10/bl since the start of the week and the front-month contract at the Dutch TTF gas hub up by more than 50pc at one point this week.
Notably, European jet fuel values tripled in early swaps trading earlier today, making historic gains, having already been at record highs at the market close yesterday, 3 March. Europe's gas prices are rising because the shutting-in of Qatari LNG tightens supply globally.
The level of future shortfalls are entirely dependent on how long the strait remains out of bounds for shipping. The US has suggested some remedies, but it is unclear how and when these will be put into action.
The commission said today it will reassess the situation "in case of a prolonged closure" of the strait of Hormuz, but it did not say how it defines 'prolonged'.
