Updates with confirmation that shutdown has begun
The US government has begun its first shutdown in six years, although some federal agencies have yet to say how this will affect data releases and other services key to commodity markets.
The partial government shutdown started at 12:01am ET on Wednesday after talks to reach a last-minute funding agreement failed.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that a shutdown was "probably likely" because of an impasse in the US Congress over what should be included in a short-term agreement to keep the government funded after midnight. Now the shutdown has begun, federal agencies will begin furloughing hundreds of thousands of workers, shutting down government websites and curtailing services related to commodity production and trade.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Interior Department are among the agencies that have yet to release updated plans for how they plan to handle a shutdown. That could mean uncertainty over the EIA's publication of key energy data, along with how the Trump administration will handle LNG export licensing and the oversight of oil and gas development on millions of acres of federal land.
EIA, DOE and Interior did not respond to requests for their plans. During the prior shutdown in 2018-19, when Trump was also serving as president, EIA tapped into carryover funds so it could continue some releases, and the Interior Department continued work on oil and gas permits on federal land.
Other federal agencies say they will wind down most of their operations during a shutdown and furlough the vast majority of their employees. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics — which publishes key data on employment, prices and inflation — plans to "completely cease operations" if funding lapses, according to a shutdown plan dated on 26 September.
The US Census Bureau, which tracks key US economic indicators, anticipates that "most activities will cease", according to an updated shutdown plan that anticipates 7pc of its 11,100 staff will be excepted from furloughs. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis — which collects statistics on US GDP and trade — plans to cease "regular operations" and furlough all but three of its 410 employees, the plan says.
The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to furlough all but 11pc of its 15,000 employees, which could delay its work on regulations such as those related to the Renewable Fuel Standard and its rollback of methane regulations. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said it will furlough all but 4pc of its more than 1,500 staffers.
The federal court system expects it can sustain "paid operations" through 3 October, US Courts Administrative Office director judge Robert Conrad said in a 24 September memo.
Congressional leaders have shown few signs of progress over the last week on a potential funding deal, and a high-profile meeting at the White House on Monday ended with Trump publishing a fake video that portrayed House of Representatives minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) wearing a sombrero. Democrats have held firm on a demand for more healthcare funding in the bill, while Republicans have insisted on a "clean" extension of existing funding through 21 November.
The shutdown is anticipated to begin on the same day that thousands of federal workers will officially lose their jobs, under a deferred resignation program that allowed workers to receive their paychecks without working if they would resign on 30 September. About 154,000 workers agreed to participate in the program, with resignation dates between today and the end of calendar year 2025, the US Office of Personnel Management said.
The White House Office of Management and Budget has said if lawmakers fail to avert a shutdown the administration will consider mass firings of federal workers in programs "not consistent" with Trump's priorities. On Tuesday, Trump, trying to pressure Democrats to keep the government open, said he could fire "a lot" of workers if the government shuts down.
"The last thing we want to do is shut it down," Trump said. "But a lot of good can come from shutdowns. We can get rid of a lot of things that we didn't want, and they'd be Democrat things."
