State-controlled Saudi Aramco will be under pressure to cut its official November crude formula prices for European buyers, as medium sour supply continues to outpace regional demand.
Market participants surveyed by Argus expect a cut of $1.50–1.75/bl against Ice Brent for Saudi cargoes loading in November, which would mark a third consecutive monthly reduction. Aramco lowered prices to customers in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $2.10–2.20/bl across September and October.
European crude demand typically softens in the final quarter, and the region appears well supplied — particularly with medium sour grades. This has already pressured differentials for locally available medium sour crudes. Norwegian Johan Sverdrup has weakened by $1.64/bl against North Sea Dated since early September, standing at a $1.04/bl discount to the benchmark on 1 October. Kebco, Kazakh-origin Urals, eased by 25¢/bl to a $2.75/bl premium to Dated over the same period.
The recent restart of flows of Iraq's Kirkuk grade via pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan has added to the medium sour surplus. The Vallesina is currently anchored at the port, preparing to load 700,000 bl of Kirkuk for an undisclosed destination. It will be followed by the T.Suna, which is due to load a cargo for Turkish state-owned refiner Tupras, according to port agent Boutros.
Further additions to global supply of medium sour crude could come from Opec+. A sub-section of the group that includes its largest producers meets on 5 October to decide whether to raise output targets again, with market sources suggesting they may opt for another combined increase of 137,000 b/d for November — the same as planned for this month.
Higher Opec+ production has recently translated into increased exports to Europe — possibly because of weaker domestic demand in Mideast Gulf countries, which has freed up more output for export.
Saudi crude exports to Europe rose by 78pc on the month to 1.08mn b/d in September, according to Vortexa data. That was the highest monthly volume since April 2020, when Saudi formula prices — set the previous month during a price war with Russia — drove a surge in exports to Europe.
Iraqi Basrah crude loadings to Europe also climbed sharply, reaching 877,000 b/d in September — more than double August's 432,000 b/d and the highest monthly average since June 2024.
Aramco typically issues its formula prices around the 5th of the month preceding loading, but may delay this month's announcement until after the Opec+ meeting.

