Hafnium prices in Europe have climbed sharply over the past two weeks in response to surging demand from the electronics, gas turbine and aerospace sectors.
The Argus weekly assessment for hafnium minimum 99pc spiked to $5,100-5,800/kg duty unpaid Rotterdam yesterday — a 24pc increase from $4,200-4,600/kg a week earlier and 38pc up from $3,700-4,200/kg at the end of September — to its highest level since December 2023.
There are echoes of the buying rush in late 2022 and the first half of 2023, when prices rose by over 300pc as the electronics and superalloy industries competed for limited supply. This time, however, material is in stock, held by consumers that made advance purchases over the past year.
Demand for 2026
Some consumers are seeking to meet requirements for the first quarter of 2026 through term and spot purchases, but there is uncertainty over whether supply can meet current and future demand. Hafnium demand picked up in August and has continued to grow.
"There is excess demand for 12t in the market that cannot be met," a trader told Argus.
To put this in context, global supply of pure hafnium metal is just 70-75 t/yr, concentrated in four countries — France, the US, China and Russia.
Demand is coming from multiple sectors for hafnium metal and hafnium dioxide, especially for use in semiconductors and memory technologies.
Growing semiconductor demand across the electronics, telecommunications, automotive, and industrial sectors is expected to drive hafnium use. And rising demand for memory capacity — driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and new storage technologies — could accelerate consumption.
The clamour for hafnium is also being fuelled by demand for gas turbines, particularly for powering AI data centers. Hafnium is a critical component in the superalloys used in gas turbines, and a surge in turbine orders — especially from the US and Middle East — combined with supply chain constraints has caused a turbine shortage. In 2024, turbine orders reached roughly 80GW, the highest in more than two decades. This compares with an estimated combined output capacity of only 30GW, spread between GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
Supply still constrained
Industry consensus is that hafnium supply must expand in the long term to meet projected demand growth. In the short term, the deficit and bottlenecks remain, so further price increases will hinge on market participants' inventory levels.
A decline in exports from China has posed challenges for many western buyers.
Beijing implemented new controls on dual-use exports last year, curbing hafnium shipments. Exporters must now document the end user and end use, and halt shipments if either changes.
One trader said it has not had a licence to export from China since October 2024. Another source described the situation as a "shadow ban" on hafnium exports from China.
A second trader, however, said it obtained a licence in August, so flows are not completely blocked.
"It takes time and won't be straightforward," the trader said. "If you are a UK trader with relevant experience, you may be eligible to obtain a licence. If you are a new trader in the US, good luck."
The US has been a major buyer of Chinese hafnium, importing 7,805kg of unwrought metal, scrap and powder last year — 30pc of China's exports. But China's exports to the US collapsed in April with import tariff hikes.
France, the largest producer of hafnium, has faced production problems this year, but these should be addressed over the next few months. "They will need to play catch-up, so their production is likely to be very tight," a trader said.
