Talks about phasing out fossil fuels have gained momentum since the UN Cop 28 summit in 2023, but translating pledges into policy remains difficult — especially for economies reliant on oil and gas revenues.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a call "to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner" by 2050 at Cop 28 in Dubai almost two years ago. The climate summit was not the only forum at which countries agreed to do so. Similar agreements were taken at G7 level and last year in the form of a UN pact by heads of states and governments.
Brazil's Cop 30 director Ana Toni urges parties to accelerate implementation. "A central element of this transition is ensuring the availability of affordable and reliable low-carbon energy sources to gradually and securely replace fossil fuels," she told Argus. The discussions are taking place. Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (Boga) head of secretariat Sian Bradley has recorded a clear shift since the Cop 28 call. "There is no high-level political space where this is not raised as a topic, and that was not the world we were in pre-Cop 28," she told Argus.
Boga, an international alliance launched at Cop 26 in Glasgow, spearheaded by Denmark and Costa Rica, is working to facilitate a managed phase-out of oil and gas production. The initiative works alongside oil producers to understand their priorities and runs a $20mn fund to assist developed countries in transition planning. So far, it is supporting five countries — Nigeria, Brazil, Kenya, Colombia and Barbados. The fund also seeks to support developing countries looking to reflect the Dubai agreement in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in collaboration with the NDC Partnership.
Despite the increase in visibility, the transition away from fossil fuels faces resistance in the form of softening commitments, pressure from the US — the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, the largest consumer of oil, and which has left the Paris agreement — and oil and gas firms' strategy shifts.
Last year in Baku, at a Cop 29 that was dominated by difficult climate finance negotiations, parties failed to agree on how to advance the implementation of the global stocktake (GST), which features the call to transition away from fossil fuels. Fossil fuels did not get a mention in the final unapproved draft of the discussions' conclusions, although the draft did reaffirm the role of transitional fuels — most likely natural gas — in the energy transition.
Recently, a report led by the Stockholm Environment Institute found that planned oil production is 31pc above levels consistent with a 1.5°C pathway in 2030, and 260pc above by 2050. For gas, production plans are 92pc above a level consistent with 1.5°C and 230pc higher by 2050. The Paris agreement aims to keep the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Diversification focus
Discussions are becoming more nuanced, according to Boga's Bradley. "Major oil and gas producers are not going to be standing on a stage announcing they have halted licensing yet, but they are asking questions behind closed doors," she says. For Cop 30's Toni, consumer countries' hesitancy in coming forward with plans stems "from the fear of being left without reliable energy", while producers question moving ahead while global demand remains high, especially when these resources are vital to finance their economies and social priorities.
"Brazil itself reflects this dual reality," Toni acknowledges. "We are a global leader in clean energy — with nearly 90pc of our electricity and 45pc of our energy coming from renewables — and in sustainable fuels. At the same time, we remain an oil producer. That is the reality of a world in transition."
Strategies for how the transition will unfold are still lagging, Toni says. "The economic dimensions of the transition, including improving transparency on fossil fuel subsidies, need to be addressed to move forward, while protecting energy affordability and broader economic stability," she says.
The fossil fuel discussions are not going away at Cop, non-profit WRI's director of international climate action, David Waskow, told Argus, but the question of economic diversification — which is coming up in various negotiation tracks, including the Just Transition Work Programme — must be given more attention.
This is an issue that Boga has worked on in the years since its creation. The organisation has been running closed-door dialogues and forums, with "most of the major oil and gas producers" and consumers, the IMF and IEA, to work out what the transition means for long-term policy planning, Bradley says.
Writing on the wall
"We have been asked to work with the group on developing illustrative pathways to guide the transition, depending on costs of production and other country factors," Bradley says. Global net zero scenarios, such as the IEA's, exist, but some producers lack country-level pathways to understand the timeframe for their transition, and whether they will be producing in 15-20 years. "The writing is increasingly on the wall for the higher-cost and the more vulnerable oil and gas producers, and they know that they have to begin engaging with this issue in a meaningful way through their energy and finance ministries," she says. "The discussion is taking root in a much more structural way."
The GST, an exercise to assess progress under the Paris agreement, is also meant to inform new NDCs — the climate plans out to 2035 that countries are due to submit by Cop 30. "We are encouraged that over 100 parties, representing two-thirds of global emissions, have already submitted their new NDCs or announced they would do so — and the majority of them have pledges related to energy transition," Cop 30's Toni said.
But major oil and gas producers that have submitted plans, apart from the UK, are not yet talking about the transition away from fossil fuels from a production point of view, only from an emissions reduction perspective. Some fossil fuel producers that are part of the G20 group — including India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and South Africa — have yet to release new plans.
Producers that think they will be in the oil and gas market for longer will be slower to come forward, Bradley says. But she points to notable shifts. Nigeria, while saying it will continue to develop resources, recognises "the economic dilemma of the transition", with fossil fuels leaving the economy "highly vulnerable to price shocks and climate risks". It also talks about stranded assets and the need to protect workers and expand non-oil sectors. Having this in the NDC of a major oil producer in the last round of climate plans would have been unthinkable, she says.
Fossil fuel talks could also receive a boost at Cop 30 in the so-called action agenda. The Brazilian Cop 30 presidency decided to use the Dubai conclusions as the spine of its summit's action agenda, and leverage existing initiatives — many including governments — to bolster implementation. Each item under the GST will have its own discussion group, and although it is not yet clear what the outcome of this process may be, the action agenda has been positively received.
"There has never been a structured space for the transition away from fossil fuel in the action agenda," Bradley says. Boga is also part of the fossil fuel action group. "We have now a presidency setting out the agenda and saying that [the transition away from fossil fuels] is a fundamental part of the UNFCCC process."
