Turkish gas consumption has held well above a year earlier since 12 October, driven by a sharp drop in central regions' temperatures plus lower wind and hydro output. But warmer weather this week could weigh on demand, although hydro generation could remain constrained.
Turkish demand was 153mn m³/d on 12-19 October, up from 122mn m³/d a year earlier. Consumption held much higher on the year in 2024 — a trend that has largely continued this year.
Gas consumption rose to 42.7bn m³ in January-August, up from 35.3bn m³ a year earlier. And September consumption reached 3.7bn m³, up from 3.5bn m³ a year earlier. Particularly strong consumption in the first quarter means traders expect overall 2025 demand to rise by 13pc to around 60bn m³.
Although the recent surge in consumption should be seen in the context of Turkey's overall rising trend, it was driven by the cold spell and weak renewable output.
While overall generation fell to 32.7GW on 12-19 October from 33.4GW a year earlier, gas-fired generation rose to 8.8GW from 6GW. Gas offset lower hydro and wind, which fell to 3.4GW and 2.6GW, respectively, from 5.2GW and 4.7GW.Hydro generation remains constrained by water shortages.
Heatwaves and limited summer rain pushed resources in provinces including Izmir and Bursa close to depletion. Market participants said the shortages could soon lead to supply cuts in Istanbul and Ankara. Traders do not see hydro ramping back up any time soon, and this could continue to support gas burn in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, cold weather in Ankara and the surrounding areas has boosted gas burn for heating. Overnight lows in Ankara averaged 4°C on 12-19 October, down from 8°C a year earlier. Lows in Istanbul were steady at 14°C.
Temperatures across the country are forecast to rise in the coming days, which could erode heating demand. In Ankara, overnight lows on 20-31 October were projected to average 6°C — about 3°C above the past decade's average. And lows were forecast to average 15°C in Istanbul — 2°C higher than the previous 10-year average.
