Poland wants the option to lower the EU's 2040 climate target, but France is still hopeful EU climate and environment ministers can "immediately" agree the EU's nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris agreement and a 2040 goal on 4 November.
Speaking at an EU ministerial meeting on 21 October, Poland's climate state secretary, Krzysztof Bolesta, called for the 2040 target — effectively a revision of the 2021 European climate law (ECL) — to include scope not just for raising but for lowering targets too, under "certain conditions".
He noted that technologies such as carbon capture and storage and hydrogen have yet to reach commercial scale. "At some point, we might have to decide, unfortunately, that we need to reduce the target because we are not satisfied with the progress of these technologies," Bolesta said. He added that higher energy prices could be one condition that triggers less ambitious targets.
But France's new climate minister, Monique Barbut, said he is confident that both an NDC — effectively setting a 2035 emissions reduction target for the EU at UN level — and a 2040 climate goal can be adopted "immediately" after a meeting of EU leaders on 23-24 October. Swedish climate minister Romina Pourmokhtari called on the EU to be clear on its red lines and its strategies for the UN Cop 30 climate conference next month. "And the EU needs to be quite clear on what we expect from other countries when we put forward our NDC, which I hope will include a 2040 target," Pourmokhtari said.
German climate minister Carsten Schneider signalled support for the commission's proposed 90pc reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. "Germany has made a firm commitment — not only through our coalition agreement, but also through our national legislation," said Schneider, a member of the country's centre-left SPD party.
EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said some major emitters are falling short. "China — which is by far the largest emitter, responsible for 30pc of the planet's emissions — has come up with an NDC that falls well short of what science says is needed," he said. Conversely, he said he had been "truly impressed" by the NDCs from Australia and the UK. "We're also doing more than our fair share ourselves," he added.
Hoekstra also gave ministers details of proposals to ensure what European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen describes as an "orderly start" and "predictable price trajectory" for the new emissions trading system covering road transport and heating fuels (ETS 2). Hoekstra is expected to "enhance" the role of ETS 2's market stability reserve and allow EU states to front-load ETS 2 revenues.
