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Latest market news

Indonesia seeks standard MOP for 2026 delivery

  • Market: Fertilizers
  • 29/10/25

A key Indonesian importer has issued two tenders to buy a total of 180,000t of standard muriate of potash (MOP) for delivery between December 2025 and October 2026. Both tenders will close on 31 October.

The first tender requested for two lots of 15,000t to be shipped to Bontang port, and the remaining 20,000t lot to be shipped to Lhokseumawe port in January-March 2026. Offers are to be made on a spot cfr price basis.

The second tender is for buying 130,000t of standard MOP in jumbo bags, of which 80,000t is to be shipped to Palembang port and the rest to Cigading port between December 2025 and October 2026. Offers should be submitted based on a formula price.

The same importer last bought 30,000t of bagged standard MOP from two Laotian suppliers at $383/t cfr for loading in September to November.

Standard MOP prices in southeast Asia have held steady in the $360-380/t cfr since early October on ample stocks in the region. Healthy crude palm oil (CPO) prices have kept MOP affordable for oil palm plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia, but weak rice prices in Thailand and Vietnam have dampened affordability among paddy growers and weighed on fertilizer prices and consumption in general, including that for MOP.

By Huijun Yao

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13/12/25

US to lift sanctions on Belarus potash

US to lift sanctions on Belarus potash

London, 13 December (Argus) — US sanctions on trade in Belarusian potash are to be lifted, easing its return to open trading. The announcement was made today by US envoy to Belarus John Coale after a series of talks with Belarus president Aleksandr Lukashenko and is, on the surface, linked to the release of political prisoners by Belarus. No formal update has yet been made to the US Treasury's sanctions database. Current US sanctions specifically designate Belaruskali, Belarus Potash Company (BPC) and Slavkali. Removing US sanctions will make it significantly easier to trade in Belarusian potash for companies around the world. A major exception, though, is the EU which has not shown any sign yet of lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash trade. This marks a significant break from the previous coordination between the US, EU and UK on Belarusian sanctions . Belarus has, despite the sanctions imposed in 2021, exported significant quantities of MOP in recent years — it is on track to export 12mn tonnes this year, over 10pc more than last year — due to creative paperwork and lax enforcement of the sanctions. By Bede Heren Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Quebec government OKs phosphate mining permit extension

12/12/25
News
12/12/25

Quebec government OKs phosphate mining permit extension

Houston, 12 December (Argus) — The Government of Quebec extended the validity of Canada-based Arianne Phosphate's development approval for two more years while the emerging phosphate mining company pursues a longer extension request for its project in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region. Arianne's Lac à Paul project was granted its initial development in December 2015 from the Quebec government with a valid period of 10 years. The project aims to develop phosphate deposits that will produce a "high-quality" igneous apatite concentrate grading 39pc P2O5 with little to no contaminants, according to Arianne. The Quebec minister will use the two-year period to consider Arianne's request for up to a five-year development extension. Conversations between Arianne and the Ministry of Environment began in 2024 for a permit extension, where several required studies were submitted, the company said. "This extension provides the industry and potential partners with the comfort they need to advance the project's development and address the need for this critical mineral," chief operating officer Raphael Gaudreault said. The Lac à Paul project is the only fully permitted greenfield phosphate project in North America. The phosphate deposit's igneous rock allows for easy transformation of its high-purity, low contaminant phosphate concentrate into purified phosphoric acid, a necessary ingredient for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, Arianne said. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI

11/12/25
News
11/12/25

Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — US fertilizer industry group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) expects US president Donald Trump does not intend to reinstate reciprocal tariffs on imported Canadian fertilizer products after previously commenting he could. Earlier this week when asked what action the Trump administration may take to bolster domestic fertilizer output and the US's reliance on imports from countries like Canada, Trump relayed that the US could impose severe tariffs "if we have to" and with those tariffs the US could be making its own fertilizer "very soon." "Based on information that we have at this time, including conversations with USDA officials, these comments do not indicate a change in current policy," TFI said Wednesday. "An open, fair, predictable, and transparent trading environment with key partners like Canada is vital to maintaining a stable, affordable supply of the crop nutrients US growers rely on," TFI noted. Following Trump's comments, several market participants agreed that it seemed unlikely tariffs would be reimposed on Canadian fertilizer imports given their status of being USMCA compliant and that tariffs would do little to improve the near-term fertilizer production outlook. The fertilizer market is "numb" to these kinds of comments, one distributor said. On a nutrient basis the US imported 98pc of its potash in 2023 and about 85pc of those imports came from Canada, according to TFI. The US imported 33pc of its urea consumption on a nutrient basis in 2023; 15pc of imports came from Canada, according to estimates from TFI. For ammonia, the US imported 12pc of its consumption, 50pc of which came from Canada. Also, 35pc of US ammonium sulfate imports came from Canada in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nitrogen market braces for CBAM after documents leak

11/12/25
News
11/12/25

Nitrogen market braces for CBAM after documents leak

Amsterdam, 11 December (Argus) — Nitrogen fertilizer market participants are grappling with the implications to trade and product flows into the EU after the latest document leak from Brussels shed more light on carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) charges for 2026. ‘Urea is king', declared one major European importer as urea faces the lowest proportional carbon cost in price terms, while offering the importer the highest content of nitrogen (46pc) per tonne ( see table ). Conversely, projected default charges for nitrates and some ammonium sulphate (amsul) origins are considerably more prohibitive. Europe is overwhelmingly reliant on urea imports, and the projected default values show the mechanism has been implemented to protect the bloc's non-urea nitrogen industry, one trader said. Europe has significant capacity of nitrate-based fertilizers — ammonium nitrate (AN), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) — thanks to plants run by international producers Yara and Agrofert, as well as other major local suppliers, but the bloc is heavily dependent on urea imports. The EU's urea imports from non-EU sources were 6.23mn t in 2024, with Egypt, Russia and Algeria accounting for over 87pc of those receipts. The estimated default CBAM cost for imports of duty-free urea from Egypt, the bloc's top supplier, is €43/t ($50/t) — or around 9-10pc of the granular urea fca French Atlantic price on 4 December. The calculation is based on a prompt ETS price of €82.48/t as assessed by Argus on 10 December. Theoretical default costs range up to €58/t for urea from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with Russian and Nigerian hovering around €50/t, and duty-free Algerian at around €45/t. UAN imports from Trinidad and Tobago, the lowest tariffed origin among the major sources, are projected to have a default charge of around €68/t at current default values, which is nearly 20pc of the UAN price in Rouen, while only delivering 30pc nitrogen content. Amsul from China, which has become a more popular source of imports this year, faces a default charge of €74/t, while only delivering 21pc of nitrogen against urea's 46pc. Amsul from Egypt is facing a levy of just €19/t. CBAM default charges for AN and CAN are projected to be considerable at €155-161/t and €115-130/t, respectively, for imports from current top origins, equating to 33-38pc of current major EU inland prices. The latest projected default charges have been calculated following a leaked draft of the approved documents from Brussels, which emerged on Wednesday . There remains a considerable lack of clarity among participants as to how the market will adjust to urea trade into Europe once the CBAM charges come into force from 1 January. By Harry Minihan Theoretical CBAM default charges for nitrogen fertilizers Selected origins Projected CBAM default charge (€/t)** CBAM default charge per tonne of nitrogen (€)*** CBAM charge % of major EU price* Urea 46pc nitrogen Granular urea fca French Atlantic Egypt 43.26 0.94 9.3 Algeria 44.92 0.98 9.6 Nigeria 49.09 1.07 10.5 Russia 49.92 1.09 10.7 Azerbaijan 54.92 1.19 11.7 Turkmenistan 58.25 1.27 12.5 Uzbekistan 58.25 1.27 12.5 Average 51.23 1.11 11.0 UAN 30pc nitrogen UAN 30 fca Rouen Trinidad & Tobago 68.03 2.27 19.2 Egypt 75.53 2.52 21.3 Russia 85.53 2.85 24.1 US 94.69 3.16 26.7 Average 80.94 2.70 22.8 AN 33.5pc nitrogen AN 33.5 cpt France Russia 154.91 4.62 32.8 Georgia 158.24 4.72 33.5 Uzbekistan 160.74 4.80 34.0 Average 157.97 4.72 33.4 CAN 27pc nitrogen CAN 27 cif inland Germany Egypt 115.45 4.28 33.2 Russia 129.61 4.80 37.3 Ukraine 129.61 4.80 37.3 Turkey 130.44 4.83 37.5 Average 126.28 4.68 36.3 Amsul 21pc nitrogen Granular amsul fob NW Europe Egypt 19.51 0.93 8.0 Russia 22.84 1.09 9.3 Serbia 22.84 1.09 9.3 China 74.49 3.55 30.4 Average 34.92 1.66 14.2 *prices assessed on 4 December; **based on ETS prompt price of €82.48/t on 10 December; ***nitrogen content of products can vary depending on plant Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil inflation falls below ceiling in November

10/12/25
News
10/12/25

Brazil inflation falls below ceiling in November

Sao Paulo, 10 December (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 4.46pc in November, the first time it stands below the central bank's 4.5pc ceiling since September 2024, according to national statistics agency IBGE. Annualized inflation decelerated from 4.68pc in October and 5.17pc in September. On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated to 0.18pc in November from 0.09pc in October. Housing costs accelerated to an annual 6.54pc in November from 4.36pc in October. Power costs accelerated to 11.41pc in November from 3.11pc in October. Brazil maintained power tariffs at R4.46 (¢0.81)/100MWh in November, as below-average rainfall for the period partially hindered hydroelectric generation. Transportation costs decelerated to an annualized 3pc from 3.69pc in October. Motor fuel costs decelerated to 2.55pc in November from 2.72pc a month prior, with gasoline and diesel prices decelerating to 2.22pc and 2.01pc from 2.49pc and 2.11pc, respectively. Ethanol prices increased by 6.2pc in November, accelerating from 5.59pc a month earlier, while compressed natural gas costs further contracted by 4.86pc from a 4.28pc contraction in October. Airplane ticket costs decelerated to an annual 0.13pc in November from 9.75pc in October. Food and beverage costs decelerated to an annual 3.88pc from a 5.5pc increase in October. Soybean oil prices decelerated to 8.89pc in November from 17.41pc a month earlier. Brazil's target interest rate remained at 15pc in November. The central bank will likely keep it steady through year-end to push inflation closer to the government's main goal of 3pc. The bank's weekly Focus report — a forecast bulletin with market expectations for macroeconomic indicators — estimates a 4.4pc overall inflation rate for 2025. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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