TotalEnergies has pushed back the timing of peak oil demand in its latest Energy Outlook, with consumption now reaching its highest level in 2040 under the base-case ‘Trends' scenario — a decade later than previously modelled.
In Trends, oil demand rises from 103mn b/d in 2024 to 107mn b/d in 2030, peaking at 108mn b/d in 2040 before gradually declining to 98mn b/d by 2050. The same scenario in last year's outlook had demand peaking at 108mn b/d in 2030 and falling to 93mn b/d by mid-century.
Trends reflects the current policy and technology trajectory through to 2030, and assumes no major shifts thereafter. Under these conditions, rising consumption in India, the Middle East and other Asian economies offsets declines in Europe and China. Sectorally, aviation and petrochemicals drive much of the increase to 2040, while electric vehicle uptake contributes to the gradual decline beyond that point.
Gas demand in the Trends scenario rises from an estimated 4.2 trillion m³ in 2024 to a peak of 4.63 trillion m³ in 2040, remaining near that level through to 2050. Oil, gas and coal still account for 60pc of global primary energy demand by 2050, down from 81pc in 2023.
This energy mix would result in an estimated global temperature rise of 2.6–2.8°C by 2100 — above the Paris Agreement's target to keep warming well below 2°C. Last year's Trends scenario had a slightly lower increase of 2.6–2.7°C.
TotalEnergies also outlines two alternative pathways. The ‘Momentum' scenario assumes OECD countries reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and China by 2060, resulting in a temperature rise of 2.2–2.4°C by 2100. The ‘Rupture' scenario — which would limit warming to below 2°C — requires significantly stronger global co-operation on decarbonisation, which "seems out of reach at present given the current state of geopolitical tensions", the company said.
