Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has ramped up gasoline production since mid-October and is building reserves, ahead of a potential planned maintenance shutdown.
The plant's gasoline-producing RFCC unit restarted in October after around a month out of service. A source at the refinery said the unit may have to go offline again to fix some long-standing issues, and this may coincide with a shutdown of the crude distillation unit (CDU).
Regulatory data show Dangote's gasoline production was 176,000 b/d on 14 October, post-resumption, and it averaged 195,000 b/d in the next four days. Output then averaged 252,000 b/d between 26–31 October and hit an all-time high of 283,000 b/d on 1 November.
Regulatory data shows Dangote stored all the gasoline it produced on 14 October, the day its output ramp-up started. Road tanker and coastal tanker gasoline loadings between 15–31 October averaged 92,000 b/d and 41,000 b/d, respectively, indicating that most of the gasoline produced is going into storage.
The RFCC may have to shut again, a refinery source said, for as long as 40 days across December and January, because of instability relating to its design and requirements that have been compounded by a too aggressive start-up pace. Dangote said on 26 October that a refinery debottlenecking process will be completed by early 2026, which suggests a planned CDU shutdown later this year.
The two units could be offline at the same time, when gasoline demand is high for the Christmas period.
Dangote can produce gasoline blendstock from three other units, and output averaged 151,000 b/d leading up to the RFCC restart. Other regulatory reports seen by Argus show average gasoline production of 129,000 b/d and 170,000 b/d in April and July, respectively.
A source at the regulator said Dangote crude receipts have dipped recently, and the gasoline ramp-up has relied on a stock of low-sulphur straight-run (LSSR) fuel oil that was built up deliberately earlier in the year and passively while the RFCC was out.
Argus tracking shows Dangote crude receipts edging down since August, and averaging 420,000 b/d in January-September. But Dangote told Argus on 31 October that the highest it had run its CDU at that point was 570,000 b/d.
A local oil trader told Argus that if the RFCC stays up for as long as Dangote seems to intend, the refiner should be able to contribute to adequate gasoline supply in the holiday season. Another said Nigerian consumption is well within what Dangote can supply.
Dangote said on 26 October, and again on 1 November, that there will be adequate gasoline supply during the holiday period.
