Metal futures: Prices rise on calmer stocks

Market: Metals
19/11/25

Base metal prices climbed in official trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and London Metal Exchange (LME) on Wednesday, as global stock markets calmed after a week of falls driven by concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and uncertainty over US interest rate policy.

Stock markets in Asia closed slightly lower on Wednesday, with the Hang Seng down 0.4pc and the Nikkei down 0.3pc, but European stocks are roughly flat on the day so far. Nevertheless, this is an improvement on the broader falls seen over the past week.

In addition to concerns surrounding potential overvaluation of AI firms, sentiment has been further pressured by concerns over divisions among US Federal Reserve officials regarding a December rate cut, while investors await delayed US economic data. CME FedWatch shows expectations for a rate cut at 34pc for the 10 December Fed meeting, down from 51pc on Tuesday.

Chinese data released on 17 November showed a 14.7pc year-on-year fall in real estate investment in January–October, as well as slower growth in value-added output from major industrial enterprises and retail sales in October from the previous month. But investor sentiment improved in China today, with Shanghai Futures Exchange prices closing higher on the day.

Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics expect the US economy to have added 50,000 jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August but still signaling a weakening trend. The Labor Department's report, originally set for release on 3 October, was delayed until 20 November because of the 43-day government shutdown. Continued signs of labor market softness could increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve cuts its target rate at its 10 December meeting.

LME three-month copper prices rose by 1.1pc on the day to settle at $10,815/metric tonne (t) in Wednesday's official session, while CME copper contract for the next active month — December — rose 0.9pc to $5.02/lb.

LME three-month aluminum prices were 0.7pc up to $2,806/t.

Copper miner Freeport Indonesia, a subsidiary of US-based Freeport McMoRan, plans to commence a phased restart and ramp-up of its Grasberg Block Cave copper-gold mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of next year, the company said on Tuesday.

LME on-warrant aluminum stocks dropped overnight after more than 30,000t was earmarked for delivery; on-warrant stocks fell by 6pc to 490,775t on Wednesday.

Three-month nickel was up by just 0.2pc to $14,660/t, while three-month zinc climbed by 1.1pc to $3,006/t.

Tin was the largest mover on the day, with the three-month contract rising by 1.4pc to $37,230/t, while lead was the only base metal to see lower prices on Wednesday. Three-month lead declined by 0.6pc to $2,024/t.

The December forward contract for WTI, the US crude benchmark, fell by $1.30/bl to $59.44/bl.

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02/04/26

US trade deficit widens in February

Houston, 2 April (Argus) — The US trade deficit widened by 4.9pc in February as imports, including capital goods linked to the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI), grew faster than exports. The US trade deficit in goods and services rose to a seasonally adjusted $57.3bn in February from $54.7bn in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday. The deficit in goods rose to $84.6bn in February from $82.1bn in January, while the services surplus fell by $0.2bn to $27.3bn. Total US exports in February rose by 4.2pc to $314.8bn while imports rose by 4.3pc to $372.1bn. Exports of goods rose by $11.5bn to $206.9bn in February, led by shipments of non-monetary gold and industrial supplies including natural gas. Imports of goods rose by $14bn to $291.5bn in February, with capital goods imports up by $7.8bn and crude oil imports up by $1.1bn. "February's jump in imports was relatively broad-based, although imports of computer equipment and semiconductors leapt again, due to the ongoing surge in AI-related capex," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. Exports of services increased by $1.2bn to $106.7bn, and services imports rose by $23bn to $79.3bn. Yearly trade gap shrinkage Still, the deficit in February shrank by more than half from $120bn a year earlier. But that could change with the Mideast Gulf war and the US high court's striking down President Donald Trump's tariffs. "The shake-up in tariff policy following the Supreme Court decision in late February, and disruptions to global supply chains due to the US-Iran war, could trigger more turbulence in the trade data," Oxford Economics' US economist Grace Zwemmer said in a note. The dollar index has climbed from 99.3 on 27 February, the day before the US-Israel war on Iran began, to 99.9 on Thursday, although it is down from 103.7 in early April last year. A stronger dollar makes US imports cheaper, while making exports less competitive. The US trade deficit edged higher to $911bn last year from $904bn in 2024, with the goods deficit rising to $1.24 trillion in 2025 from $1.215 trillion the prior year. Petroleum trade slows US exports of crude and petroleum products, including natural gas liquids, fuel oil and others on an end-use basis, totaled $20.6bn in February, little changed on the month, with imports at $16.8bn in February, up from 15.5bn in January, the report said. Exports of crude averaged 4.3mn b/d in February, up from 3.9mn b/d in January, with imports at 6.35mn b/d in February from 6.1mn b/d in January. Partners The US had a $16.5bn seasonally adjusted deficit with Vietnam in February, a $16.8bn shortfall with Mexico and a $13.1bn deficit with China. The US ran a $5.1bn deficit with the EU and a $7.6bn deficit with South Korea, a $4.7bn deficit with Japan and a $3.2bn shortfall with Germany. The US deficit with Canada narrowed to $741mn in February from January. The US had a $5.6bn surplus with the UK, a $6.8bn surplus with the Netherlands and a $3.8bn surplus with central and south America that included a $1.5bn surplus with Brazil in February. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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New furnaces to support Italian steel power demand

02/04/26

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02/04/26

New furnaces to support Italian steel power demand

London, 2 April (Argus) — Rising steel demand and upcoming furnace expansions within Italy's highly electrified steel sector could increase the country's industrial power consumption. But high energy prices in the wake of the US-Iran conflict may limit sector growth. Italy is the second-largest steel producer in Europe, after Germany. It has the most electrified steel industry in the region, with 90pc of production coming from secondary steel made from scrap processed in electric arc furnaces in 2024, compared with an EU average of 45pc, according to steel association Federacciai. The country had 26 electric arc furnaces with a combined capacity of 23.9mn t/yr at the end of 2025, according to independent research body Global Iron and Steel Tracker ( see capacity graph ). Italy's wholesale power prices are consistently among the highest in Europe and prices have risen further since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, owing to Italy's strong gas marginality. Italy's second and third quarter power contracts were up by 39pc at the end of March compared with the end of February. Italian firms are constructing new electric furnaces that are expected to start operating in the next few years, which could increase steel sector electricity demand. Producer Acciaierie Venete announced a new 100t electric arc furnace in Padova, expected to be operational by this summer and projected to produce 750,000 t/yr of steel. This furnace alone would consume about 500 GWh/yr of power, assuming energy consumption of modern electric arc furnaces is around 670 kWh/t, based on steel output and power demand recorded in 2025. Fellow Italian steel producer Metinvest aims to break ground at a site in Piombino in central Italy by mid-2026. The new mill will have two electric arc furnaces and 2.7mn t/yr of hot-rolling capacity for low-emissions hot-rolled products, with production targeted for 2029. These furnaces would add a further 1.8 TWh/yr of power demand. And steelmaker Acciaierie d'Italia plans to phase out Italy's only coal-fired blast furnaces at its Taranto plant and replace them with electric furnaces. The firm's Taranto facility has operated below full capacity for more than 10 years and was placed under extraordinary administration in February 2024. The Italian government has put the Taranto assets up for tender, requiring any buyer to commit to replacing the furnaces with electric ones, with authorisation for 6mn t/yr. Private equity firm Flacks Group has been selected as the preferred bidder, proposing a plan for 4mn t/yr. The switch to electric furnaces was scheduled for 2027, but doubt has been case over the future of the Taranto site owing to production issues and a court order mandating a shutdown because of health concerns. State of play Italy's steel sector accounted for 42.4pc of total power demand from energy-intensive sectors in 2025, at 13.8TWh. This marks a 3.7pc increase from the previous year, according to transmission system operator Terna ( see sectoral graph ). Italy's crude steel output rose by 3.6pc to 20.7mn t in 2025, Federacciai data show. Steel power demand fell by 10pc on the year in 2022 and was stagnant over 2023-24 but turned to growth in 2025 ( see long-term demand graph ). Monthly power demand has consistently increased year on year since July 2025, driven by increased production in anticipation of higher steel demand in 2026 ( see monthly graph ). Steel sector power demand reached 1.3TWh in February, up by 3.7pc on the year, mirroring a 2.6pc increase in crude steel output to 1.9mn t. EU steel demand is forecast to rise by 1.3pc to around 134mn t in 2026, according to European sector association Eurofer. And the EU plans to cut import quotas for flat steel from 1 July. Italy is a major importer of flat steel so the lower quota could boost domestic production. Energy efficiency in the sector increased over 2015-21, with consumption falling from roughly 800 kWh/t to below 700 kWh/t, data from Federacciai show. But power demand per ton of output has been slowly edging up since 2021. Geopolitical worries The Italian government has taken steps to insulate industry from power price increases, but geopolitical risks continue to influence prices. Italy launched its Energy Release Scheme late last year, offering electricity to energy-intensive users at a fixed price of €65/MWh in exchange for commitments to develop renewable capacity and return equivalent power over 20 years. But high energy costs will continue to weigh on steelmakers this year, Eurofer director-general Axel Eggert said, pointing to the impact of the Middle East war on gas markets after the Dutch TTF benchmark moved above €50/MWh in early March. Italian steel and scrap association Assofermet flagged the conflict as a source of potential additional cost pressures in an already volatile market. "Operating complexity and growing concerns related to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the upcoming entry into force of the new safeguard measure are significantly weighing on the market," it said. The rollout of the CBAM — which raises import costs — will be accompanied by a gradual reduction of free allowances under the Emissions Trading System, from which energy intensive industries have long benefited. As free allocations decline, steelmakers will need to buy more allowances, adding further cost burdens. By Ilenia Reale Electric arc furnace capacity by country mn t/yr Sectoral breakdown of industry power demand % Steel power demand, 12-month trailing average TWh/m Power demand vs steel output, monthly Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s industrial output falls in February

02/04/26

News

02/04/26

Brazil’s industrial output falls in February

Sao Paulo, 2 April (Argus) — Brazil's industrial output stepped down by an annual 0.7pc in February, mainly driven by auto, chemical products and machinery, according to national statistics agency IBGE. The decrease follows an annual 0.2pc increase in January and a 0.1pc decline in December. Production of intermediate goods — feedstocks for industries that do not directly reach the final consumer — rose by 1.1pc in February from a year earlier. Output of non-durable and semi-durable goods fell by 0.3pc from a year earlier. Output of capital goods and durable consumer goods were down by 13.5pc and 9.3pc, respectively, from February 2025. It is the ninth consecutive annualized decline in capital goods production. Auto, chemical products and machinery were among the largest negative contributors, down by 7.3pc, by 6.4pc and 11pc, respectively, from a year prior. Heavy vehicles and NPK fertilizers pushed down their respective categories, IBGE said. Output of petroleum coke, oil products and biofuels rose by 4pc in February from a year earlier, following a 1.2pc decline in January. Metal products output was down by 8.4pc. Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14.75pc in March. Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 3.81pc in February . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition

31/03/26

News

31/03/26

Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition

Paris, 31 March (Argus) — Bulk terminal company HES International operates 14 facilities in four European countries and anticipates important changes to its operations as the energy transition and hydrogen market evolve. Argus spoke with new energies business development director Otto Waterlander and chief commercial officer for HES Med Terminal Firas Ezzeddine about how an infrastructure player must adapt to serve customers. Edited highlights follow: What does HES do and what is its role in decarbonisation? Ezzeddine: We are an essential and critical part of the logistics value chain for the industrial heart of Europe. Our value proposition is that we are located in deep sea ports in close proximity to industrial zones, meaning that we are well positioned to serve strategic European industries and their logistical needs. Waterlander: We are purely an infrastructure player; we do not normally have a stake or exposure to the commodities that we manage through our terminals. Our customers tend to be carbon-intensive and they all are struggling with the question of decarbonisation. For HES, it is both a necessity and an opportunity. It is a necessity because classic flows of commodities will phase out over time. And an opportunity because of the energy transition... new things are happening, for example, [development of a] CO2 [market]. Today, we are not involved in handling CO2, but it is going to become a commodity in the future. What are the main challenges related to energy transition activities? Ezzeddine: I see challenges in three buckets. The first is timing: there is a bit of a lag between project deployment and when the infrastructure should be ready to facilitate flows. These are generally not well aligned. The second challenge is around financing. We see from both private and public sector a bit of a risk averseness in terms of investing in the infrastructure for the future. The final challenge is regulation regarding both the new flows of commodities and the actual development of infrastructure. Waterlander: There is also a question about what the utilisation of new infrastructure will be like, particularly in the early years. What you see in the industry is that often projects get delayed, either because they are not economic or because their utilisation challenges create an [unfavourable] economic situation. A recent example is the CO2 transport pipelines. They require large volumes to make it economic and those volumes are not there yet. You need to factor in some long periods of underutilisation of the infrastructure. H ow are you addressing this last challenge, for example for CO 2 infrastructure? Waterlander: We believe that the key to unlocking the market is to go smaller and create optionality. For example, with regard to CO2 terminal activities, we are advancing in Wilhelmshaven and Rotterdam. We already have infrastructure there to receive tankers and we have dedicated jetties to handle the unloading or loading of vessels. We just need to adjust them so that we can also move CO2. We believe that we can actually get our terminals economically viable at about 1.5mn or maybe 2mn t/yr of CO2 handling, when most of the projects will look at 10mn t/yr plus. If we could develop a smaller size terminal to begin with and then grow to larger sizes, we can help the market to come to grips with those volumes. And then gradually over time, volumes will move into pipelines as well. Will the CO 2 be liquefied at the HES terminals? Waterlander: There are two models. In one we have pipeline transport of gaseous CO2, then HES will liquefy the CO2 at its site before it goes onto the ships. That is the most efficient way because otherwise each player would have to have their own liquefaction. But before we have the gaseous pipelines, we will see customers installing their CO2 capture facilities, liquefy it on site, load it into rail tankcars or into barges on the Rhine, for example, to Rotterdam. In this case we receive it in liquid form already. We are planning to have CO2 infrastructure in place by 2029. In the first year, that is only for a small volume, but by 2030 it starts to become significant. We will launch an open season for our first two CO2 terminals in the coming weeks and we are aiming to analyse more specific capacity bookings through these. In France's Fos-sur-Mer, you are working with the Gravithy green iron initiative . What additional infrastructure is needed for that? Ezzeddine: We will be managing the inflow of material for them, which is the iron ore, and the export of their hot briquetted iron [HBI] production. What that entails, in essence, is having some cranes and conveyor belt infrastructure from and to their facility. For the iron ore side, it is not different from the infrastructure that we have for other sites. But the HBI requires dedicated infrastructure because of the nature of the product. What we are doing now is designing a conveyor belt network going from our terminal to theirs, which is around 2km away, where we send iron ore and we receive HBI, and we dedicate a specific slot on our terminal land where we have specific storage for them. Does GravitHy need to book capacity in advance to enable the expansions? Ezzeddine: We have a specific planning and demand forecasting system where we input the potential volumes going in and out. When a new client comes in, they add their inflow and outflow requirements to the model. Then we see whether that is feasible or not given the current infrastructure and the land capacity that we have. The client, in this case GravitHy, tells us they have a need for ‘X' million tonnes of throughput in our terminal, and it is up to us to design the optimal inflow and outflow process. We update the model quite frequently so that we have visibility on what is needed by when, especially because some projects require infrastructure that takes years to build. What are HES' plans for e-methanol? Waterlander: We're working on an e-methanol import project where it will be brought from across the Atlantic into Germany. We have a storage site in Germany that is a former refinery and has liquid storage facilities. We still have an element of the refinery operational that provides security of supply today. We're discussing with a partner the construction of a synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF) facility as well, which they would locate on our premises. What about other hydrogen carriers or hydrogen-based fuels? Waterlander: We're very proactive on following everything in the hydrogen space. We had discussions about liquid hydrogen imports. We are also into advanced project steps on imports of ammonia into Germany and are in project definition for imports of liquid organic hydrogen carriers. For our Wilhelmshaven site, we already have signed a letter of intent with grid infrastructure company OGE to be connected to the hydrogen network. Ammonia in particular is rather expensive because you need crackers. Is HES planning to develop ammonia crackers? Waterlander: It depends, it is still such early days. If we do it, it would not be at our sole risk, that is clear. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Western Australia's LNG projects restart production

31/03/26

News

31/03/26

Western Australia's LNG projects restart production

Sydney, 31 March (Argus) — Western Australia's (WA) off line LNG projects are restarting some domestic gas production, while the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) is assessing damage from category 4 tropical cyclone Narelle, which passed through the region late last week. The ports of Dampier and Ashburton have been checked over, with structural damage to Dampier's general cargo import facilities, rendering the wharf inoperable, PPA said on 31 March. The bulk liquids terminal is operable, PPA said, meaning fuel imports for the region's major iron ore mines is unaffected. Ashburton port has also suffered damage to its general cargo wharf and this remains closed, with engineering teams looking over the facilities during the next few days. The port of Varanus Island — a central gathering and processing hub for oil, gas and condensate supplied by nearby fields, including those operated by Australian independent Santos — has reopened with no impacts to operations, PPA said. LNG projects recovering The region's affected LNG projects are slowly returning to production after Narelle took two major plants, the 14.3mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) and 8.9mn t/yr Wheatstone terminals, off line late last week . NWS' Karratha gas plant will be producing at 300 TJ/d and Wheatstone at 20 TJ/d on 1 April, indicating that some volumes are returning on line, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator's WA gas bulletin board, which measures domestic flows. Wheatstone may take weeks to return to full capacity, Chevron has said, while it returned one train at the 15.6mn t/yr Gorgon LNG terminal, which was taken off line during the cyclone to service on 29 March. The disruption to supply comes during an already tight supply balance in the Pacific basin, with Qatar's 64.2mn t/yr Ras Laffan terminal pausing production on 2 March due to the US-Iran war. Domestic gas flows fell from 1,202 TJ/d on 24 March to 558 TJ/d on 29 March due to Narelle's impacts, forcing alumina refineries run by US producer Alcoa to slash output temporarily . By Tom Major Argus LNG prices ($/mn Btu) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Metal futures: Prices rise on calmer stocks

Related news posts

US trade deficit widens in February

US trade deficit widens in February

New furnaces to support Italian steel power demand

New furnaces to support Italian steel power demand

Brazil’s industrial output falls in February

Brazil’s industrial output falls in February

Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition

Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition

Western Australia's LNG projects restart production

Western Australia's LNG projects restart production

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