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US adds 119,000 jobs in Sep, jobless rate up

  • Market: Coal, Metals
  • 20/11/25

US job growth picked up in September before the government shutdown led to the furloughs of thousands of federal employees, while unemployment ticked up to its highest since 2021 in a report that was delayed by nearly two months.

The US added 119,000 nonfarm jobs in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Thursday, compared with economists' expectations for about 50,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4pc from 4.3pc in August.

Gains for the prior two months were revised lower by a combined 33,000 jobs. With the revisions, August jobs were revised lower to losses of 4,000 jobs, with July revised down to job growth of 72,000.

The employment report was originally due to be released on 3 October but was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, which amounted to a blackout of most federal data reporting, especially the employment and inflation reports that the Federal Reserve relies on to determine monetary policy.

Following Thursday's employment report, the CME FedWatch tool showed 41.6pc odds the Federal Reserve will cut its target rate by a quarter point at its 10 December meeting, up from 30.1pc on Wednesday and down from 50.1pc odds a week earlier.

Federal employment fell by 3,000 in September and is down by 97,000 since January. Employees on paid leave or receiving severance are counted as employed.

Health care added 43,000 jobs, while food services and drinking places added 37,000 jobs. Construction added 19,000 jobs. Jobs in transportation and warehousing declined by 25,000.

Manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs, while mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs.

Average hourly earnings rose by an annual 3.8pc in September, matching the prior month's gains.

The BLS said it will not publish its employment situation news release for October, saying it could not collect data for one of the two surveys it uses to produce the monthly report because of the shutdown. Some of the data will be published with the November employment report in mid-December.

By Bob Willis

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16/02/26

Japan's economy rebounds in October-December 2025

Japan's economy rebounds in October-December 2025

Osaka, 16 February (Argus) — Japan's economy returned to growth in October-December 2025, after the previous quarter's slump, supported by a gradual recovery in private consumption against a backdrop of slowing inflation and lower energy prices. Seasonally adjusted real GDP rose at an annualised rate of 0.2pc in the October-December quarter, following a 2.6pc decline in July-September, according to preliminary government data released on 16 February. Private consumption, which accounts for more than 50pc of the country's GDP, grew by 0.4pc on an annualised basis in October-December from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, private residential and non-residential investment rose by 20pc and 1pc, respectively. The increase offset a 0.8pc decline in public demand over the same period. Signs of a rebound in private consumption have emerged, with real employee income recovering moderately, said a monthly economic report for January published by Japan's Cabinet Office. The inflation rate for the Tokyo metropolitan area eased to 2pc in December from 2.7pc in November, reflecting a slowdown in food price increases, the report said. Meanwhile, energy prices fell on the year owing to government subsidy effects, it added. Tokyo raised its gasoline subsidy from 13 November to cap the country's retail gasoline prices, aiming to facilitate the scrapping of its provisional tax of ¥25.10/litre ($0.16/litre) on gasoline, which was eventually abolished on 31 December 2025 . Japan's retail gasoline prices averaged ¥161.55/litre during the four weeks to 22 December 2025, down by 8.7pc from ¥176.88/litre a year earlier, according to data from trade and industry ministry Meti. Removing the extra tax was a central pillar of Japan's emergency economic revamp package aimed at tackling inflation, introduced after Sanae Takaichi, a Liberal Democratic Party leader became prime minister in October 2025. Japan's energy utilisation costs in December also appeared to have declined following lower fuel import costs, even before the new government resumed subsidies for retail electricity and city gas supplies during the January-March winter heating season. A typical household bill for electricity consumption of 260kWh in the Tokyo metropolitan area would total ¥8,639/kWh in December, down from ¥8,868/kWh a year earlier, according to earlier estimates from utility Tokyo Electric Power in October 2025. Lower energy costs reflected weaker import prices of generation fuels. The country's import costs for LNG averaged ¥84,044/t for July-September 2025, down by 10pc from a year earlier, data from Japan's finance ministry show. The fall in import costs was reflected in utility bills for December. The Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC), Japan's monthly average price of crude delivered to the country, averaged ¥10,602/bl for July-September, down by 19pc from a year earlier. The country's import costs for thermal coal fell by 24pc to an average of ¥17,538/t during the period. The economic growth in the October-December quarter sent Japan's full-year 2025 real GDP growth to 1.1pc from a year earlier. Nominal GDP totalled ¥662.8 trillion, exceeding ¥600 trillion for the third consecutive year. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Rio Tinto pauses Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea

16/02/26
News
16/02/26

Rio Tinto pauses Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea

Sydney, 16 February (Argus) — UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto has suspended production at its Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea after the death of a contractor working at the site. A thorough investigation will be launched following the incident at the SimFer site on 14 February, Rio Tinto said on 15 February. No details regarding the cause of death were provided. The mine's first shipment was in early December. Rio Tinto is targeting sales of 5mn–6mn t of ore from Simandou in 2026 and 60mn t/yr of ore at the mine by 2028. The high-grade deposit is split into four blocks. Rio Tinto operates blocks three and four. Singaporean firm Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS) operates blocks one and two and aims to reach a capacity of 60mn–80mn t/yr. WCS paused operations after three workers were killed late last year , with the development of the Simandou resource resulting in a total of 16 deaths to early October 2025. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US climate rollback set to raise gasoline prices

13/02/26
News
13/02/26

US climate rollback set to raise gasoline prices

Washington, 13 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's elimination of all federal greenhouse gas standards on cars and trucks could raise gasoline prices by as much as 29pc by 2050, according to projections prepared by his own administration. That higher spending on fuel, along with other effects caused by repealing the tailpipe standards, would result in net losses for consumers of about $180bn through 2055, according to a primary scenario the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published on Thursday in support of its regulatory rollback. The agency's "Scenario A1" shows gasoline prices rising by 75¢/USG by 2050, in constant dollar terms, as a result of higher fuel demand coming from less fuel-efficient but cheaper cars and trucks. Trump on Thursday cited what he said were "trillions of dollars" in cost savings as a reason for repealing tailpipe standards. But EPA's own modeling shows the potential savings to consumers would be far less, or even result in net costs for consumers. That is before accounting for adverse health consequences caused by air pollution or effects of climate change. "By EPA's own analysis, American families will pay billions more in fuel costs. To make matters even worse, many people will be burdened with increased healthcare costs from the increase in air pollution that vehicles will be allowed to spew," said Katherine García, director of Sierra Club's Clean Transportation for All Campaign. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said on Thursday that the tailpipe rollback would "eliminate over $1.3 trillion of regulatory costs", a figure pulled from agency projections largely focused on savings from lower vehicle prices through 2055. But that headline figure disregards key costs under the rollback, such as additional spending on fuel and repairs that would total nearly $1.5 trillion over the same time span, dwarfing the potential savings, agency modeling shows. The extra fuel demand from the rollback has been welcome news for oil producers, who contend EPA's tailipe standards forced consumers to purchase electric vehicles and other models they did not want. Before the rollback, the US Energy Information Administration's reference case in its Annual Energy Outlook showed fuel demand from light-duty vehicles falling to 4.9mn b/d by 2050, down from 8.3mn b/d this year. Oil groups have cheered the demise of EPA's vehicle greenhouse gas standards, even as they push to retain emission standards for oil and gas facilities. "EPA properly concludes that the Clean Air Act does not provide it with the authority to regulate certain greenhouse gas emissions," Independent Petroleum Association of America chief executive Edith Naegele said. EPA prepared alternative scenarios that show increased benefits from the rollback. In technical documents released on Thursday, EPA said "Scenario AI" does account for policies Trump is taking "to drive down the price of gasoline and diesel", so it modeled an alternative scenario where oil prices plunge to $47/bl by 2050, compared with a reference case of $91/bl. In that price scenario, net savings would reach $250bn by 2055. EPA also created scenarios showing even higher savings by assuming consumers only cared about the first 2.5 years of fuel savings when buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle. None of EPA's cost-benefit scenarios accounted for any of the negative health effects of more air pollution, or damage from climate change. Under a recent policy change, EPA assigned a value of $0 for all adverse health effects of regulatory changes. EPA expects the rollback will increase greenhouse gas emissions by 8.3bn metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent, equivalent to about 1.5 years of greenhouse gas emissions from the US. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US inflation slows to 2.4pc in January

13/02/26
News
13/02/26

US inflation slows to 2.4pc in January

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — US headline inflation slowed to an eight-month low in January, a sign that supply chains may have largely absorbed the effects of tariffs. The consumer price index (CPI) cooled to a 2.4pc annual pace in January, down from 2.7pc in December and November and below the 2.5pc forecast average in a Trading Economics survey. It was the lowest monthly reading since May last year. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose at an annual 2.5pc pace, slowing from 2.6pc in December. "The downside surprise in the January CPI is welcome news for the Federal Reserve," Oxford Economics said in a research note. "Lingering distortions from the (partial government) shutdown in the price data, prospects for solid growth this year, and a stabilizing job market will keep the central bank on hold until June." The lack of typical January upside surprises, Oxford said, "is further reinforcing our view that tariff-induced price increases on the goods side are largely behind us." Services less energy services, considered a core measure of services, rose by 2.9pc in January, slowing from 3pc in December. Gasoline falls 7.5pc The energy index fell by a 0.1pc annual pace in January compared with a 2.3pc gain a month earlier. Gasoline declined by 7.5pc compared with a 3.4pc drop a month earlier. The fuel oil index fell at a 4.2pc annual pace after rising by 7.4pc in the prior month. Energy services rose by 7.2pc, slowing from a 7.7pc annual gain in December. Piped natural gas was up by 9.8pc compared with 10.8pc the prior month. Electricity rose by 6.3pc, slowing from a 6.7pc pace a month prior. Shelter rose by 3pc from a year earlier, slowing from a 3.2pc annual gain in December. Medical care services rose by 3.9pc compared with a 3.5pc annual gain a month earlier. Transportation services rose at a 1.3pc pace, compared with a 1.5pc gain a month earlier. New vehicles rose at a 0.4pc annual rate compared with a 0.3pc gain in December. Used vehicles fell by 2pc on the year compared with 1.6pc gain a month earlier. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia should have CBAM on some commodities: Review

13/02/26
News
13/02/26

Australia should have CBAM on some commodities: Review

Sydney, 13 February (Argus) — Australia should consider introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), starting with imports of cement and clinker and potentially expanding to products such as hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives like urea and ammonium phosphate, according to a key report released by the government today. The identified commodities face risk of future carbon leakage from imports, which could lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions being relocated from Australia to overseas. The carbon leakage review , led by Australian National University professor Frank Jotzo between July 2023 and March 2025, assessed leakage risks in 2030 for all 75 trade-exposed commodities under Australia's safeguard mechanism across 42 commodity groups. The review was announced as part of the 2023 reform of the safeguard mechanism While current safeguard mechanism settings are effective at mitigating carbon leakage risk in the short- to medium-term, the declining emissions baselines under the scheme could put some of the identified sectors at a "more significant" risk over time, according to the report. Cement and clinker first, others to follow Risks are higher for cement and clinker, and the implementation of a border carbon adjustment for these products "is likely to be simplest," according to the report. Australian production of lime and glass, on the other hand, is only partially covered under the safeguard mechanism, and a CBAM application would face more complexity. Hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives carry material carbon leakage risks, but feature more complexity with respect to production methods, supply chains, and product diversity. Some of these products are also only partially covered by the safeguard mechanism. The government should also consider potential risks for a second group of commodities, consisting of aluminium and alumina, refined petroleum, and pulp and paper. These products face mixed evidence related to leakage risk indicators and analysis of trade and investment leakage, but the government could assess them in the forthcoming review of the safeguard mechanism scheduled for the July 2026-June 2027 financial year and consider particularly the suitability of arrangements for emissions-intensive trade-exposed activities for all commodities under the scheme. Preference for fees instead of ACCU surrenders The safeguard mechanism covers over 200 individual facilities emitting more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a compliance year across the oil and gas, mining, manufacturing, transport and waste sectors. Facilities earn Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) if their reported scope 1 emissions fall below their baselines, and must surrender SMCs or Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) if emissions exceed the threshold. If the Australian government decides to pursue a CBAM, it should consider applying liabilities only to scope 1 emissions that exceed the relevant safeguard mechanism baseline at the time of import. The assessment should be based on explicit carbon prices only, and the liability should account for the differences between the effective carbon price paid in the originating country and an Australian benchmark price. While importers could, in principle, clear the liability by paying a fee or surrendering ACCUs, there was "broad support" for the fee option during the consultation, according to the report. Surrendering ACCUs would more closely reflect domestic requirements, but trading in ACCUs has legislative requirements that would have to be met by importers which would require careful consideration, the report warned. The ACCU purchase option would create additional demand for the product, raising prices. But stakeholder feedback "reflected concerns about the potential impact on ACCU supply" if these carbon credit units were used to meet carbon border adjustment liabilities. The government should not consider a carbon border adjustment that provides rebates for exports, as that would be inconsistent with Australia's emissions reduction targets and could raise considerable international trade law concerns. "Rebating emissions obligations to exports would effectively exempt production for export from emissions reductions obligations, running counter to overall policy objectives towards net zero and increasing the required emissions reductions elsewhere in the economy," the report read. Teba provisions could be removed Trade-exposed, baseline-adjusted (Teba) facilities operating in emission-intensive sectors that might face unfair competition from imports from countries with weaker or no emission reduction policies currently benefit from discounted baseline decline rates under the safeguard mechanism. Decline rates can be as low as 2pc for non-manufacturing sectors or 1pc for manufacturing sectors, compared with the standard 4.9pc/yr declining rate until 2030. The Teba provisions for a commodity should be removed once a border carbon adjustment is fully implemented for that commodity, according to the review. Limited impact on downstream activity The report also noted that analysis indicates the impact of a carbon border adjustment on downstream activity, such as construction, would be "very limited". "The review's analysis suggests that the maximum price impacts on final goods that incorporate commodities that may be subject to a border carbon adjustment, such as wind farms, house construction and crops like wheat, would be vanishingly small as a share of product prices," the report said. The government said today it will continue to consult on carbon leakage with affected industries, and will consider the report's recommendations in the safeguard mechanism review. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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