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Latest market news

Mexico economy tops forecasts with 2.2pc 2Q growth

  • Market: Agriculture, Crude oil, Metals, Oil products
  • 30/07/26

Mexico's economy grew by 2.2pc in the second quarter of 2026, led by solid expansion in the agricultural sector and steady growth in the industrial and services sectors.

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated from an annual 0.2pc in the first quarter, statistics agency Inegi reported. The first-quarter figure was revised up from 0.1pc, reinforcing signs that the economy began gaining momentum in March.

The second-quarter result followed 1.7pc annual growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a 0.2pc contraction in the third quarter last year.

The primary sector, which includes agriculture, fishing, mining and hydrocarbon extraction, expanded by 7.6pc in the second quarter after growing 0.4pc in the first quarter, revised from an initial estimate of a 0.1pc contraction.

Industrial sector output, including manufacturing, construction and mining, grew by 0.9pc after contracting 1.2pc in the first quarter, revised from a 1.3pc decline.

The services sector expanded by 2.6pc from April to June, up from 1pc growth in the first quarter, revised from 0.7pc growth.

The annualized second-quarter result surpassed the 2.1pc estimate from Mexican bank Banorte and well above its 1.6pc consensus estimate. Banorte said the "very positive" data reinforces its forecast for 1.4pc GDP growth in 2026, citing expected support from industrial and services activity.

Banorte expects investment to remain a key driver, highlighting large planned projects in retail and e-commerce, including Mercado Libre's $4.6bn investment in Mexico. It also expects construction to benefit from government-backed spending on hospitals, natural gas infrastructure and renewable power projects.

Banorte added that Mexico's trade outlook remains favorable despite the US decision on 1 July not to renew the USMCA free trade agreement while negotiations continue. Fitch Ratings estimates the latest US tariffs tied to forced-labor measures will actually lower Mexico's effective tariff rate to 3.7pc from 5pc.

By James Young

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30/07/26

Brazil approves new rules for federal gas sales: Update

Brazil approves new rules for federal gas sales: Update

Adds large energy consumers association Abrace's comments. Sao Paulo, 30 July (Argus) — Brazil's national energy council CNPE approved a resolution on 30 July that will allow federally owned natural gas to be sold directly to the liberalized market through auctions, a move the government said could cut gas prices by more than 50pc and boost industrial competitiveness. The measure updates Brazil's policy for marketing state-owned gas and authorizes state-owned commodity trading firm PPSA to hold short-term auctions for 2026-30 and long-term auctions from 2030. The gas will be offered on an economic and competitive basis, with priority given to gas-intensive industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, fertilizers and steelmaking, the government said. The mines and energy ministry estimates that state-owned gas prices could fall to about $5/mmBtu from around $12/mmBtu currently paid for gas commercialized by state-controlled Petrobras, according to minister Alexandre Silveira. The resolution is part of Brazil's gas-for-jobs program, which aims to increase domestic gas supply and improve competition in Brazil's gas market. The government said studies by state-owned energy research firm Epe indicate that the measure, together with ongoing regulatory actions by hydrocarbons regulator ANP, could generate R95bn ($17bn) in investments and add R79bn to Brazil's GDP. The government also expects the policy to lower gas costs for thermoelectric generation and compressed natural gas transportation. Large energy consumers association Abrace also backed the rules, saying they will create a more competitive environment and provide mechanisms to reduce gas prices for the industry. Abrace also highlighted other advancements made by ANP, such as the wider access to key gas infrastructures , which also help expand Brazil's open gas market. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil approves new rules for federal gas sales

30/07/26
News
30/07/26

Brazil approves new rules for federal gas sales

Sao Paulo, 30 July (Argus) — Brazil's national energy council CNPE approved a resolution on 30 July that will allow federally owned natural gas to be sold directly to the liberalized market through auctions, a move the government said could cut gas prices by more than 50pc and boost industrial competitiveness. The measure updates Brazil's policy for marketing state-owned gas and authorizes state-owned commodity trading firm PPSA to hold short-term auctions for 2026-30 and long-term auctions from 2030. The gas will be offered on an economic and competitive basis, with priority given to gas-intensive industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, fertilizers and steelmaking, the government said. The mines and energy ministry estimates that state-owned gas prices could fall to about $5/mmBtu from around $12/mmBtu currently paid for gas commercialized by state-controlled Petrobras, according to minister Alexandre Silveira. The resolution is part of Brazil's gas-for-jobs program, which aims to increase domestic gas supply and improve competition in Brazil's gas market. The government said studies by state-owned energy research firm Epe indicate that the measure, together with ongoing regulatory actions by hydrocarbons regulator ANP, could generate R95bn ($17bn) in investments and add R79bn to Brazil's GDP. The government also expects the policy to lower gas costs for thermoelectric generation and compressed natural gas transportation. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

EV charger rollout now held back by ‘cost not coverage’

30/07/26
News
30/07/26

EV charger rollout now held back by ‘cost not coverage’

London, 30 July (Argus) — The main barrier to electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the UK is affordability, not availability, as operators continue to build infrastructure ahead of demand, charging industry group ChargeUK head of communications Ian McKee said in an interview with Argus . Around one-third of UK households are still without off-street parking, while a much smaller share of current EV owners rely solely on public charging. That gap has become more visible as policy attention shifts from the number of chargers to charging costs, following recent concern that tax changes could further widen the advantage enjoyed by drivers who are able to charge thjeir EVS at home. Concern about charger availability was far more common 3-5 years ago than it is today, and the public charging network has roughly doubled over the past three years, McKee said. Recent analysis found near-home charging provision was around 1½ years ahead of projected demand and motorway charging around six years ahead, according to research firm Cenex. But Cenex does not suggest the issue is solved, estimating that rollout last year achieved only around two-thirds of the pace needed to preserve that lead and that a further 110,000 near-home chargepoints will be needed by 2030. Households without driveways also remain less well served, with only 23pc within a short walk of a public charger, up from 20pc on the year, it added. Cost gap grows, despite charger buildout Availability may be improving, but drivers without home charging still face substantially higher costs. Charging a battery-electric vehicle at home costs around 7p/mile , compared with about 26p/mile using ultra-rapid public charging. Public charging also continues to attract 20pc value-added tax, compared with 5pc on domestic electricity, a difference ChargeUK estimates costs drivers without home charging around £145/yr. The industry's main complaint is not charger hardware, metals or wholesale electricity prices, McKee said, but network and standing charges. Energy costs at rapid and ultra-rapid charging sites have risen by 79pc since 2021, while network charges have risen by around 300pc and standing charges by 462pc over the same period (see graph) , according to analysis done for ChargeUK by consultancy Cornwall Insight. Standing charges are fixed payments for maintaining grid connections and available capacity, regardless of electricity use. They now contribute around 20-30p/kWh at many rapid-charging sites and can account for roughly 70pc of energy bills, ChargeUK said. Costs for power-dense silicon carbide and gallium nitride semiconductors are becoming more important in EV charging equipment and 800V vehicle architectures, but operators are not identifying those materials as major drivers of charging costs. The Argus gallium min 99.9999pc fob China has risen by around 50pc since September to $530-560/kg, while N-type polysilicon has fallen by roughly 40pc to Yn31-33/kg ($4.58-4.88/kg) For copper, despite fast chargers requiring in excess of 60kg of the metal, operators have raised more concerns over theft than procurement costs, McKee said. Operators are increasingly installing battery energy storage systems alongside charging hubs. The systems can reduce required grid-connection sizes, lower exposure to capacity charges and help manage one of the industry's other persistent concerns — access to grid capacity itself. Investment depends on EV sales The charging sector argues it has largely built ahead of demand and now needs EV uptake to catch up. The sector could attract almost £30bn of investment by 2035 under current projections, according to ChargeUK-commissioned analysis by consultancy LCP Delta. That investment case depends heavily on the UK's zero-emission vehicle mandate, which provides confidence that EV demand will continue to grow. Weakening the mandate could remove £1.5bn-2bn of future charging investment, based on ChargeUK modelling cited by McKee. He argued that the effect would fall most heavily on less commercially attractive regions and sites, rather than on the busiest charging corridors. That dependence on future vehicle demand closely mirrors upstream battery-materials markets, where investment decisions in lithium, nickel and other supply chains similarly rest on expectations for future EV sales. The number of UK public chargers increased by 13pc in 2025, while electricity delivered rose by 21pc, but utilisation remained broadly unchanged. Ultra-rapid chargers were occupied only around 13pc of the time, despite a 40pc increase in charger numbers, according to Zapmap. That stability suggests operators are still building ahead of demand, rather than benefiting from sharply higher throughput. It also helps to explain why charging companies remain focused on EV adoption rates, utilisation and policy support, despite continued charger rollout. For the industry, the question is increasingly no longer whether enough chargers exist. For many drivers without a driveway, the bigger question is whether public charging can become cheap enough to compete with home charging. By Chris Welch UK energy costs, historic and forecast, archetypal small industrial user £/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US economic growth slows to 1.5pc in 2Q

30/07/26
News
30/07/26

US economic growth slows to 1.5pc in 2Q

Houston, 30 July (Argus) — US economic growth slowed to an annual 1.5pc pace in the second quarter, as slower government spending and increased imports partly offset stronger consumer spending and investment. Growth slowed from an annual 2.1pc in the first quarter and followed 0.5pc in the fourth quarter 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast growth of 2.1pc. Consumer spending accelerated to a 3.2pc rate in the second quarter, possibly driven by large income tax refunds, following 0.5pc growth in the first quarter. Spending on fixed investments — such as equipment, buildings and intellectual property — quickened to a 7pc annual rate, while investments on residential properties grew by an annual 1.5pc after falling by 7.8pc. Spending on equipment rose by 15.2pc, partly driven by the expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, following 15.8pc growth in the second quarter. The change in private inventories, including imported equipment and goods, showed a 0.7 percentage point drag on growth. "Big drags from net trade and inventories obscure solid growth in private demand in Q2, but we doubt this strength will be sustained," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. "The boost from tax refunds is fading fast, underlying income growth is very weak, (and) higher gas prices still are putting pressure on spending elsewhere." Much of the recent AI-related spending is supporting technology imports, Pantheon said, rather than supporting the domestic economy. Exports rose by 4.5pc after a 10.9pc gain in the prior quarter, while imports, which subtract from growth, rose by an annual 11.5pc in the second quarter, accounting for a 1.5 point drag on GDP growth, after an 11.8pc gain. Federal government spending fell by 4.1pc after rising by 9.4pc, while defense spending rose by 2.4pc after a 2.1pc gain. State and local spending rose by 1.1pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Rhine oil barge rates at record on near-impassable Kaub

30/07/26
News
30/07/26

Rhine oil barge rates at record on near-impassable Kaub

Hamburg, 30 July (Argus) — Freight rates for barges carrying oil products on the Rhine have hit an all time high because low water levels have left the river's Kaub bottleneck practically impassable and have rendered limited shallow draft barge resupply uneconomical. At the start of the week, the Kaub bottleneck on the Rhine fell below the critical 30cm mark, making the route impassable for most inland barges. Shipowners said only a few specialised vessels with shallow drafts can still pass, but these are typically tied to long-term charter agreements and crews require considerable experience and detailed knowledge of the shoals around Kaub to navigate safely. The Upper Rhine and Main River are now practically cut off from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub. The same is true for Switzerland, which heavily relies on imports of oil products from ARA via the Rhine. Problems may soon extend to the Lower Rhine. Barge loading operations are at risk of being suspended at the beginning of the week ending 7 August, as a result of extremely low water levels. The water level at Duisburg is forecast to reach a historic low by the end of the current week, which would make vessel loading impossible and potentially cut the direct route from ARA to the 251,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery. Barges transporting oil products or blending components to and from the refinery switch from the Rhine to the Ruhr River at Duisburg, then reach Gelsenkirchen via the Rhine-Herne Canal. If water levels at Duisburg fall as expected, loading restrictions will make such shipments uneconomical or impossible, traders said. Shipowners have been raising freight rates for shipments from ARA to destinations along the Rhine and Main since mid-June, with the pace of increases accelerating in the second week of July. Freight rates to Duisburg, Frankfurt and Karlsruhe have now reached record highs since assessments were launched in 2012 (see chart). Only rates to Cologne and Basel were higher once before, in August 2022, when low Rhine water levels coincided with maintenance at the Gelsenkirchen refinery and production issues at Austria's 193,700 b/d Schwechat refinery. When barge resupply and outbound shipments become difficult or impossible, rail transport appears to be an alternative. But traders and shipowners said there is very little spare capacity for additional rail shipments. Many market participants are seeking alternatives to barge transport at the same time, further tightening rail availability. Price gaps Severe disruption to resupply logistics and higher freight rates are causing price increases at import hubs in western Germany compared with refinery locations. Suppliers at the 310,000 b/d Miro refinery in Karlsruhe can no longer ship relevant volumes of surplus product by barge to other destinations or ARA. As a result, they are lowering prices for truck loadings of heating oil, diesel and gasoline to reduce excess inventories. The disconnect between import and refinery markets has reached almost unprecedented levels. Heating oil, diesel and gasoline in the Rhine-Main region are trading way above prices at Miro (see chart). Gasoline is increasingly difficult to source on the spot market in Rhine-Main, the Cologne region and western Germany. Many suppliers have withdrawn from the spot market, likely because low water levels are preventing adequate supplies of blending components, making normal gasoline production impossible. By Johannes Guhlke fca truck loading Rhine-Main area vs. Miro Argus Rhine freight rates from ARA to Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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