Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba have stopped for now and cargoes to other destinations are grinding to a halt, sources tell Argus, as US pressure on Caracas continues to build.
With the exception of crude cargoes chartered by Chevron and a few other foreign oil majors working with state oil firm PdV, very little crude tanker traffic is moving out of Venezuela's main ports, according to industry and government sources. The US seizure of a crude cargo earlier this month and US threats to strike targets in the country are leading some shippers to divert ships heading to pick up Venezuelan crude. Operational problems caused by a cyberattack on PdV systems over the weekend are also impeding cargo loadings.
Since late September the US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela as part of an effort ostensibly aimed at stopping waterborne drug shipments. Overall crude exports from Venezuela since the start of the operation are not significantly different from the same period a year ago — exports from the country averaged 785,000 b/d from 15 September-15 December, compared to 792,000 b/d during that same period in 2024, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa.
But since the start of December the volumes have dropped more significantly, with only seven cargoes and average volumes of 258,000 b/d, versus 17 cargoes and 1.08mn b/d of flow in the first half of December 2024.
Of those seven cargoes that have left Venezuela so far this month, four are on their way to the US, one is destined to Malaysia, another to China and another to Cuba, according to Vortexa, although the final destinations may change.
Following the US tanker seizure, market participants said they have adopted a "wait-and-see" approach that may be contributing to an overall slowdown in charterers in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Rates for 2mn bl very large crude carriers (VLCCs) loading out of the US Gulf coast fell on Monday, though levels remain near three-year highs and firmly above the lows reached months prior during the summer months.
Asian buyers of Venezuelan crude are unlikely to see a curtailment in flows immediately, according to market sources, since Venezuela exported a relatively steady volume of crude in early fall that has yet to be offloaded. Among the reasons for the overhang is that refiners in the Chinese refining hub of Shandong did not get their import quotas until late November.
Cuba, which relies heavily on Venezuela for crude, has been the first to feel the pinch in constrained flows. Cuban premier Miguel Diaz-Canel said this week the disruption of crude supplies from Venezuela — including from the ship seized by the US earlier this month that appeared to be en route to Cuba — is creating a dire economic situation on the island.
Dolores Dobarro, a former oil vice minister, told Argus that some China-bound tankers laden with Venezuelan oil previously made quick stops in Cuba to offload some crude volumes, but that traffic has largely stopped following the US seizure operation on 10 December.
