The first year of President Donald Trump's second term brought fresh uncertainty to the US renewable energy development landscape, leaving the long-term outlook for offshore wind uncertain.
Trump's return to the White House has upended the environment in which renewable energy developers operate. The industry is losing key tax incentives, getting hit with more red tape and dealing with new regulations that disfavor intermittent generation on public lands.
All of this is expected to slow the growth of onshore wind and solar significantly.
But the president's policies have posed a unique threat to the nascent US offshore wind industry, which received significant support from former president Joe Biden. Trump, on his first day in office, withdrew all areas on the US outer continental shelf from consideration for offshore wind leasing, and he directed the US Interior Department to consider rescinding or modifying existing leases. He also demanded a "temporary cessation" of permitting pending reviews of alleged deficiencies in the approval process, leaving developers in limbo.
In addition, the administration on 22 December ordered five projects off the US east coast to halt construction, citing national security concerns. Two had been the target of similar orders earlier this year, one of which the administration later rescinded while a federal court issued an injunction against the other. The US is also pushing to reconsider approvals granted to multiple projects by the Biden administration.
While the loss of tax credits has hurt the industry, the disruptions to the permitting process may be a bigger concern, according to Sam Salustro, senior vice president of market and policy strategy at offshore wind trade group Oceantic Network.
There are projects still on track to come on line in 2026-27, but after that, no new capacity is likely before 2029 at the earliest, Salustro said. And while a federal district court this month struck down Trump's indeterminate halt of new project reviews, the administration retains authority over that process, making a shift in the current landscape unlikely.
"Getting things restarted is a whole other story," said Daniel Kammen, Bloomberg distinguished professor of energy and climate justice at Johns Hopkins University. "Equinor is not going to move heavy equipment from Oslo to the Virginia coast unless they really believe it's going to happen."
The administration is also likely to take additional steps to stonewall offshore wind development, Kammen said, citing "Project 2025", a 920-page document written largely by high-ranking officials from Trump's first term.
"It says it doesn't matter what the law actually says, the purse makes decisions," Kammen said. "And so the Office of Management and Budget can actually overrule all kinds of things. That's written very clearly. Whether it's legal or not is another story, but it's a strategy."
Stoppage time
Northeast US states, which have been counting on offshore wind to help meet their clean energy mandates, have begun to reconfigure their policies amid escalating electricity costs. Connecticut earlier this year reduced its 2030 renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements by 11 percentage points. New Jersey regulators are mulling revisions to the state's RPS obligations for 2027-2031, and Massachusetts lawmakers are contemplating lower near-term RPS targets in response to the federal pushback against offshore wind.
But the disruptive nature of Trump's policies has raised the question of how easily the industry could reestablish its footing, even under a supportive future administration.
If states are delaying those targets in hopes that developers will "catch up", they may be disappointed, according to Tom Harper, a partner at consultant Baringa specializing in power and renewables. The US could be looking at a "10-year deferral" for the offshore wind industry to reestablish itself.
"The offshore wind industry isn't going to come back in 2029-30. 'Once bitten, twice shy,' as they say,'" Harper said, citing slowdowns in Europe in response to "mounting costs and political fallout."
Kammen expects offshore wind to bounce back, although it may require new companies to enter the market if the European firms on which the industry's supply chain currently depends balk at a return to the US.
"I think this is really a delay, not a defeat, but it comes at a very bad time because demand for the infrastructure providers to get this launched is around the world", Kammen said. "Everywhere else is ramping up."
