US sanctions more oil tankers tied to Venezuela

Market: Crude oil, Freight
31/12/25

US president Donald Trump's administration has imposed sanctions on four oil tankers and their owners that it says were operating in Venezuela's oil sector, with the goal of escalating financial pressure on Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

The newly designated vessels include the Della and Valiant, both 2mn bl-carrying very large crude carriers (VLCCs), the Rosalind, a 600,000 bl Panamax, and the 330,000 bl Nord Star. Vessel tracking shows the Della in the south Atlantic steaming toward Asia-Pacific and the Valiant in floating storage near Singapore.

Some of the tankers are part of the "shadow fleet" the US says have evaded sanctions, delivering financial resources to the Maduro government. The size of the shadow fleet, or tankers involved in legally dubious trades, has ballooned to around a fifth of the global tanker fleet to meet demand for transporting Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan cargoes.

"Today's action further signals that those involved in the Venezuelan oil trade continue to face significant sanctions risks," the US Treasury Department said.

Trump has been escalating pressure on the South American country. The US has imposed earlier rounds of sanctions on tankers and shipping companies, while seizing two tankers recently. On 16 December, Trump declared a "complete blockade" on most seaborne oil being shipped out of Venezuela, and earlier this week Trump claimed responsibility for a strike on a "dock area" he tied to alleged drug boats.

By Chris Knight and Nicholas Watt

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31/12/25

Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on US Gulf sour crudes

Houston, 31 December (Argus) — US deepwater sour crude values have fallen to their lowest average in over a year as a result of surging supply. January Mars averaged a roughly 80¢/bl discount to Domestic Sweet, the widest level since November 2024 trade. The medium sour also averaged a $4.18/bl discount relative to March Ice Brent, compared to a 7¢/bl premium to that basis in the same period of 2024. Medium sour Southern Green Canyon's (SGC) discount to the Cushing, Oklahoma, benchmark averaged almost $1.90/bl for the January trade month. The last time an SGC final trade month discount was so deep was for March 2023 deliveries. Three new projects have helped boost US Gulf of Mexico output since mid-2025 and will continue to add to supply. Beacon Offshore Energy's 120,000 b/d Shenandoah floating production system started delivering oil into Genesis' SYNC pipeline in July. The line connects to the Cameron Highway Oil Pipeline System (Chops), which feeds the SGC crude stream. Beacon said in October that Shenandoah had reached its 100,000 b/d target. Elsewhere, BP recently started up the Argos Southwest Extension project, adding 20,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) to the existing platform. Argos output also goes into Chops to feed the SGC stream. And LLOG Exploration's Salamanca project, which achieved first oil in the third quarter, is expected to ramp up to its design capacity of 50,000 b/d by mid-2026 and flow into the medium sour Poseidon stream. Additionally, BP's Atlantis Drill Center 1 oil field expansion project started up two months ahead of schedule, the company reported on 11 December, and is expected to add peak production of around 15,000 boe/d. Atlantis' gross oil production capacity is 200,000 b/d and feeds into the Chops stream. The new production has led to an increase in SGC spot activity. Argus tallied 300,000 b/d of SGC spot trade for December, the largest monthly volume since the assessment was launched in 2006. To date in the January trade month, around 259,000 b/d of spot deals have been reported. The additional spot supply has also boosted SGC's share of Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) spot activity for the July-December trade months to 26pc, the highest since the launch of the index in 2009. ASCI is a volume-weighted average of US Gulf sour crude deals — comprising Mars, Poseidon and SGC — and is used as the basis for official selling prices for crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. US Gulf deepwater production is projected to average 1.95mn b/d in 2026, up from 1.9mn b/d in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration's most recent Short-Term Energy outlook . Canadian pressure Sour crude values in the US are likely to face further pressure as Canadian crude production is expected to increase. Alberta oil sands output hit record highs this year and is projected to continue to grow in 2026. July-October production averaged 4.22mn b/d, up by 4pc on the year, data from the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) show. Canadian crude and condensate production is forecast to rise by 1.7pc in 2026 to a record 4.85mn b/d, according to Argus Consulting, a division of Argus Media. Further adding to supply, Chevron resumed imports of heavy sour Venezuelan crude in August. Around 155,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude was exported to the US in October, up slightly from September and the highest since March, Kpler data show. But sour values could see support going forward as Venezuelan oil flows are disrupted by building US pressure on Caracas. Little crude tanker traffic has moved out of Venezuela's main ports since the 10 December seizure of a Venezuelan tanker, with the exception of cargoes chartered by Chevron and a few other foreign oil majors working with state-owned oil firm PdV, industry and government sources say. Iraq has also been seeking new outlets for Kirkuk crude, with some making its way to the US Gulf coast, as its inconsistent quality dampened Mediterranean demand, and US refiners have been showing interest in heavier grades. Export demand has also slowed with the increase in cheaper alternatives globally in addition to higher freight rates. US Gulf coast sour crude values received some support recently from purchases of 900,000 bl of sour crude for December-January delivery to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). But the support may be short-lived despite President Donald Trump's goal to refill the SPR. Currently there is only enough funding for the purchase of around 3mn bl of crude, or about 1pc of the roughly 290mn bl that would be needed to refill the SPR to its authorized storage capacity of 714mn bl. By Mykah Briscoe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: EU policy to boost Asia spec tanker demand

30/12/25

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30/12/25

Viewpoint: EU policy to boost Asia spec tanker demand

London, 30 December (Argus) — EU legislation and new biofuels mandates should drive up 2026 demand for specialised tankers to move biofuels and renewable feedstocks from Asia-Pacific. This could offset any loss in US demand because of new terms in its 45Z tax credit policy. Exports of biofuels and feedstocks to Europe make up the bulk of long-haul demand for specialised tankers in Asia-Pacific. This trade should grow in 2026 when EU states implement the revised renewable energy directive (RED III). But many of the EU's largest biofuels consumers — including Germany, France, Italy and Spain — missed the 21 May 2025 deadline, and some have pushed back launch dates to 2027, which may limit the export surge that market participants were forecasting for 2026. Germany's new legislation should offer partial support. As the EU's largest biofuels consumer, its RED III transposition is pivotal. The German cabinet approved legislation to implement the EU's RED III into national law on 10 December, including provisions to end double-counting of advanced biofuels made from waste products, such as used cooking oil (UCO) or tall oil. This would require a much higher amount of physical biofuels to reach the same level of greenhouse gas (GHG) credits, driving up consumption. The bill still needs to pass through Germany's lower and upper parliaments for debate, meaning it is unlikely it will pass into law until later in 2026. But the abolition of double counting will apply to the entire compliance year, so it will be retroactive to 1 January. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) is the primary way to reach blending targets, because ethanol and biodiesel have strict blend walls limiting any sizeable jump in consumption. Higher HVO demand will probably require a rise in imports from Singapore, given the EU has anti-dumping duties on US and Chinese product. This will buoy demand for specialised tankers in southeast Asia in 2026, although a larger demand rise will depend on RED III implementation across the bloc. Fading US incentives New terms of the US' 45Z tax credit scheme, which will only incentivise biofuels produced using feedstocks from the US, Canada or Mexico from 1 January 2026, have already weighed on imports from Asia-Pacific. Some wider trade should continue as certain biofuels producers buy feedstocks to produce for export markets. Prices of north American feedstocks should eventually be pushed up to parity with other feedstocks, making the latter competitive in US markets even without the 45Z. While this would kick out exports from Asia-Pacific again, these dynamics will take some time and will probably leave flows reduced in the early months of 2026. US demand for biofuels and feedstocks from Asia-Pacific had tapered off in 2025, meaning further losses in exports should be easily offset by growth in trade to Europe — supporting specialised tanker rates. Around 43pc of the 15.2mn t of biofuels and renewable feedstocks exported from Asia-Pacific in 2025 headed to Europe, and only around 13pc to the US, Kpler data show. This means a loss in exports to the US could be easily offset by growth in European demand. If exports to the US dropped by 50pc in 2026 to just under 1mn t, there would need to only be a 15pc jump in exports to the EU, to around 7.5mn t, to keep overall exports from Asia-Pacific flat on the year. By Leonard Fisher-Matthews Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: China steel lull to offset Capesize crunch?

30/12/25

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30/12/25

Viewpoint: China steel lull to offset Capesize crunch?

London, 30 December (Argus) — Global Capesize rates are poised to slide in 2026 as Chinese steel exports seem set to weaken, with the market retreating from its two-year peak. Supply of bulk carriers remains tight and inelastic, but without demand growth — which hinges on China's steel balance — average rates are likely to fall. A buoyant late 2025 had echoes of the August-October 2024 rally, and both markets reached a ceiling that resulted in coal cargoes being split on to smaller Panamaxes. This could be the case again in 2026, as Panamax rates look likely to remain subdued, although coal's shrinking role in Capesize demand will limit any spillover, leaving the Capesize market increasingly sensitive to iron ore dynamics. Capesize supply remains fundamentally tight and inelastic, with fleet growth constrained by a thin newbuild orderbook at a time of uncertainty over alternative fuel uptake. Many 15-year-old vessels are scheduled for docking, limiting effective supply. Tight tonnage helped drive a late November-early December rally, with Pacific rates at their highest since March 2024. But rates have fallen since. High rates make owners less willing to scrap older bulkers, and some Australian charterers are now fixing older ships than standard. Capesizes loading at key Western Australian hubs were, on average, older than 10 years in 2025, up from 6.2 years in 2017. On the demand side, iron ore distance travelled could be set to rise, driving up freight rates. Shipowner CMB expects seaborne iron ore tonne-miles (tmi) to rise by 2.8pc in 2026 and then by 2.7pc in 2027 to around 10 trillion tmi. Global bauxite tonne-miles are projected to jump by 12.4pc in 2026 and thenby 11pc in 2027 to over 1.5 trillion tmi. Iron ore tonne-miles are likely be driven in part by Simandou, which shipped its first two cargoes in late 2025. Simandou could reshape the Capesize market, depending on whether it displaces Australian or Brazilian iron ore. If it displaces Australian cargoes, tonne-miles could soar, lifting rates. If it displaces Brazilian cargoes, tonne-miles could fall. But Capesize demand is increasingly sensitive to China's steel balance — weak domestic consumption and the outlook for steel exports — as well as aluminium-related bauxite flows. Capesize volatility is likely to continue in 2026, and the average rate over the year could in fact be lower. Global steel output fell by 4.6pc in November to 140mn t, while Chinese output dropped by 11pc to 69.9mn t. And Chinese steel consumption fell by 5.7pc year on year to 649mn t in January-September. China has faced 25 steel trade friction cases this year, after 33 in 2024. Its steel exports fell on the year in October for the first time in 2025 — by 12.6pc to 9.7mn t. An export licence system for steel products that will take effect on 1 January could further weigh on volumes. Shipbroker Clarksons expects Chinese steel exports to fall by 6pc to 115.4mn t in 2026 and to 109.6mn t in 2027, down from 122.8mn t in 2024. This would translate into some 50 fewer Capesize voyages in 2026 and 40 fewer in 2027 — relatively modest reductions. But portside storage is limited and China's weekly iron ore stocks at 47 ports had already climbed to 162mn t in the week to 19 December — the highest since 2018. With slow steel demand and falling steel exports, this could weigh on the Capesize market in 2026. And while Guinea's bauxite exports hit 148mn t in January-November, up by 24pc year on year, there might not be a further significant increase as Chinese aluminium output approaches its 45.5mn t/yr limit by the end of 2026. Capesize rates could stay elevated through what is usually a slow first quarter, supported by tight supply and rising Simandou volumes. But sharp drops and seasonal spikes are likely if Chinese steel exports keep falling as a result of mounting anti-dumping measures and licensing constraints, curbing iron ore demand. By Andrey Telegin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India again extends deadline for oil, gas bid round

30/12/25

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30/12/25

India again extends deadline for oil, gas bid round

Mumbai, 30 December (Argus) — India has again extended the deadline for bids in its latest oil and gas exploration round, giving potential investors an additional six weeks until 18 February, according to the official website. This is the fourth extension to the 25 oil and gas blocks on offer in the 10th bidding round under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licencing Policy's (HELP) Open Acreage Licencing Programme (OALP). The bid round, launched during India Energy Week in New Delhi in February, was originally scheduled to close at the end of July and was later extended to 31 October and then again to 31 December. India has not given a reason for the extension, but industry sources said it may have been because of the holiday season. The previous extensions were because of lower participation from investors over several regulations and stringent tax policies. This is the largest bid round in terms of acreage offered in a single OALP bid round and is primarily an offshore bid round. Of the total, 16 blocks with an area of 97,919.6 km² fall under "No-Go" areas — areas under the defence ministry. Six of the 25 blocks on offer are on land, six are in shallow water, one in deep water and 12 are in ultra deep-water. These cover an area of 191,986.21 km² across 13 sedimentary basins. Discussions are also ongoing for a new policy on drilling regulations, a government official told reporters at the 28th Energy Technology Meet in Hyderabad in October. The new rules expand on India's amended legislation , giving foreign investors greater policy certainty and fiscal stability — something that has deterred most international oil companies to invest in India's exploration capacity. Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras has signed letters of intent with Indian state-owned producers ONGC and Oil India to collaborate on exploration and production projects . It is also considering opportunities in deepwater and ultra-deepwater crude blocks in India, Petrobras chief executive Magda Chambriard said earlier this year. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies and BP have also agreed to partner with ONGC and Oil India in several initial agreements signed over the last two years. Under the ninth bidding round, 28 upstream oil and gas blocks were offered in January 2024, of which ONGC won 15 . It was the first time BP, private-sector refiner RIL and ONGC partnered and won a shallow-water block in the Saurashtra basin. ONGC has a 40pc stake in the consortium, and RIL and BP hold 30pc each. ONGC awarded a contract to BP in January to operate and enhance crude and gas production from its Mumbai High fields as part of India's efforts to attract foreign investment in the upstream sector. Higher taxes But a recent hike in taxes complicated matters for foreign upstream majors to invest in India because it raises their input cost. New Delhi raised the goods and services tax (GST) on exploration, development and production of oil and gas to 18pc from 12pc, effective 22 September. The elevated taxes are applicable on goods and support services for drilling and production, as well as costs for transporting crude and refined products by pipeline, making operations more expensive. The government currently takes 60-70pc of oil producers' revenue in the form of royalties and other taxes, a senior industry official said. India in December 2024 abolished a windfall tax imposed on domestic crude production in July 2022 because international prices spiked on the back of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Indian upstream firms sell their output based on international prices. Retail sales of oil products and natural gas do not fall under the GST regime, resulting in limited pricing freedom for domestic oil and gas producers. India aims to increase its acreage under oil and gas exploration to 1mn km² by 2030. By Rituparna Ghosh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US continues to 'hit hard' on Venezuela: Trump

29/12/25

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29/12/25

US continues to 'hit hard' on Venezuela: Trump

Caracas, 29 December (Argus) — The US is engaging targets inside Venezuela, President Donald Trump has said, although neither the White House separately nor Venezuela have confirmed on-land attacks. The US since September has attacked or destroyed 27 ships it alleged were carrying drugs from Venezuela, killing about 100. It has seized two oil tankers carrying sanctioned Venezuelan crude and is pursuing a third. But these attacks have taken place in international waters, although Trump in recent weeks threatened that strikes within Venezuelan territory could begin "soon". Trump said such an attack has happened in a radio interview with host John Catsimatidis, released on 26 December. "I don't know if you read, or you saw, they [drug cartels inside Venezuela] had a big plant, a big facility where [the] ships come from," Trump said. "Two nights ago we knocked that out, so, we hit them very hard." Trump reiterated on Monday that the US had caused a "major explosion in the dock area" where boats were loaded with drugs. According to Trump's timeline, the attack would have taken place on 24 or 25 December, near the time the US attacked militants in northern Nigeria. Neither the Venezuelan government nor the White House immediately responded to requests for comment. Maduro did not mention a specific attack in a speech he gave on 28 December — a Christian holiday that commemorates the Biblical execution of male infants — but he compared Trump with King Herod, who ordered their slaughter. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro had released 72 political prisoners around the Christmas holiday, non-governmental organizations said. Political persecution is one of the US' complaints about Maduro, including election stealing, drug trafficking and human rights abuses. Venezuela's leader have previously accused Trump of going after Venezuela's oil production, which has reached about 1mn b/d. About 103,000 b/d of that has headed to the US so far in December, as Chevron operates in Venezuela under a sanctions waiver. Drug shipments from Venezuela are down by 97pc, Trump said also during last week's interview. Catsimatidis is chief executive of United Refining, part of his Red Apple holding group. It produces about 70,000 b/d of oil products mostly serving Pennsylvania and parts of New York and Ohio, according to the company. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US sanctions more oil tankers tied to Venezuela

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Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on US Gulf sour crudes

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Viewpoint: EU policy to boost Asia spec tanker demand

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Viewpoint: China steel lull to offset Capesize crunch?

India again extends deadline for oil, gas bid round

India again extends deadline for oil, gas bid round

US continues to 'hit hard' on Venezuela: Trump

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