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China demands ‘immediate release’ of Venezuela’s Maduro

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 05/01/26

China has called for the immediate release of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, who was captured and transferred to the US in a large-scale military operation on 3 January.

China, one of Venezuela's key political allies and the main buyer of its crude exports, described the seizure of Maduro and his wife as a clear violation of international law. The US should "release them at once, stop toppling the government of Venezuela, and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation," China's foreign ministry said on 4 January.

A Chinese delegation met with Maduro just hours before the US attack, according to official government media. China is likely the single-largest buyer of Venezuelan crude — its imports from the country averaged around 430,000 b/d in 2025, according to Argus estimates based on tracking data and information from market participants.

Much of Venezuela's exports are carried on shadow fleet tankers, or through ship-to-ship transfers, making exact volumes hard to track. China's official customs data show zero imports from Venezuela since March 2025, and an average of just 9,000 b/d in the first 11 months of last year.

The immediate outlook for Venezuela's exports is unclear. US president Donald Trump said on 3 January that the US would "temporarily" run Venezuela's government and overhaul its oil sector. "We'll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries, many of whom are using it now," Trump said at a press conference.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio appeared to qualify those comments on 4 January, but emphasized that the Trump administration will not allow "the oil industry in Venezuela to be controlled by adversaries of the United States."

Any sustained disruption to Venezuelan oil exports would primarily affect the global heavy-sour crude market. Sellers had already started holding off from offering some Venezuelan Merey crude after the US seized two tankers in December, officials at Chinese traders and refiners told Argus last month.

Crude futures held largely steady in early trading on Monday, after the events in Venezuela injected fresh uncertainty into markets. The Ice front-month March Brent contract was at $60.55/bl at 04:00 GMT, down by 20¢/bl from its settlement on 2 January, after trading in a range of $60.00-61.24/bl earlier in the day.

By Kevin Foster

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08/01/26

Canadian exports to US at multi-year low in Oct

Canadian exports to US at multi-year low in Oct

Calgary, 8 January (Argus) — Canadian exports to the US, as a percentage of all exports from the country, have fallen to their lowest level since May 2020, according to new trade data. About 67pc of Canadian goods were exported to the US in October, down from nearly 73pc in October 2024, Statistics Canada said on Thursday. Canadian exports to the US peaked at a 79pc share in February, but that is likely a consequence of hurried trade occurring before tariffs threatened by US president Donald Trump were to take effect. Canada was among Trump's first targets upon taking office earlier this year, prompting politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade relationship with their neighbour to the south and deepen trade relationships elsewhere. Prime minister Mark Carney wants to double Canada's non-US exports over the course of the next decade. Exports to the US fell to C$44bn ($36bn) in October, down from C$47bn in the same month 2024. Canada meanwhile imported C$39bn worth of goods from the US in October, down from just under C$41bn a year earlier. Canada's resulting trade surplus with the US shrank to C$4.8bn from C$6.7bn across the same period. Higher oil exports to China, and less to the US, contributed to this change. Canada also exported more gold with Statistics Canada highlighting the UK as a key destination. Canada's exports to the UK rose by 91pc across the same period to C$5.9bn, while exports to both the European Union and China rose by about 18pc to C$4.2bn and C$3.3bn, respectively. On a year-to-date basis, Canada exported C$467bn worth of goods to the US through the first 10 months of 2025, lower by 4pc compared to the same period in 2024. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Large US oil firms wary on Venezuela: Bessent

08/01/26
News
08/01/26

Large US oil firms wary on Venezuela: Bessent

Washington, 8 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump's invitation to take advantage of Venezuela's upstream oil industry has failed to generate much enthusiasm among large US oil companies, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday. "The big oil companies who move slowly, who have corporate boards are not interested," Bessent told the Economic Club of Minnesota. But, according to Bessent, "independent oil companies and individuals wildcatters... want to get to Venezuela yesterday." Bessent's remarks constitute the first public confirmation that the US administration's hastily improvised plans to revive Venezuela's oil industry are hitting a snag. Energy secretary Chris Wright met with oil company executives in Miami, Florida, on Wednesday and Trump is expected to host a wide array of energy company executives at the White House on Friday. A meaningful turnaround in Venezuela's upstream industry requires costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to go. Oil-focused investment plans touted by the Venezuelan opposition in the past five years estimated that at a minimum $100bn is required to boost output back to pre-US sanctions level of 1.2mn b/d. It would take much more if Venezuela wants to achieve its 27-year-old peak output of over 3mn b/d. Persuading US companies to establish or, in the case of Chevron, to expand operations, will require security guarantees and a more stable business environment, which calls into question the timeline of transition outlined by the White House. The Trump administration at the moment plans to take over Venezuela's oil sales, help stabilize the country's oil industry and broader economy and only then address a possible transition through elections. But Bessent explained the reluctance of large companies to invest in Venezuela in terms of "a lot of bureaucracy at multinationals". By contrast, smaller companies can go in quickly — "when you're writing your own check, you can do it, as opposed to if you have some of these boards". Trump's pitch for investing in Venezuela — the need to keep retail gasoline prices in the US low — also contradicts the corporate direction of the publicly traded US producers, which in recent years prioritized profits over production growth even in US shale fields. The sanctions waivers for buyers of Venezuelan oil include a clause requiring the bulk of the supply to be available for sale in the US, an example of the administration's effort to keep US oil and gasoline prices lower. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US begins issuing Venezuela sanctions waivers: Update

08/01/26
News
08/01/26

US begins issuing Venezuela sanctions waivers: Update

Updates with comments from the US treasury secretary Washington, 8 January (Argus) — The US administration has begun the process of partially lifting sanctions prohibiting Venezuelan crude sales, while maintaining control over destinations. US Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), has given a waiver to a global trading firm to resume purchases of Venezuelan crude, sources tell Argus . The terms of the license require that any initial shipment must be sold to buyers in the US. OFAC does not comment on issuance of private sanctions licenses. Trafigura and Gunvor declined to comment. Vitol has been approached for comment. Mercuria is considering its Venezuela options, including licensing, sources say. The US is in talks with leading trading firms and banks to immediately move 30mn-50mn bl of Venezuelan oil held in floating and onshore storage, US energy secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday. As a first condition, OFAC must lift sanctions that since last year allow only Chevron to lift limited volumes of Venezuelan crude. Chevron imported 120,000 b/d from Venezuela in December. Instead of issuing a "general license" to allow state-owned PdV to sell crude cargoes to any legitimate market participant, the US appears to have chosen to issue private waivers that come with conditions attached. The US also plans to remove sanctions from some Venezuela entities, treasury secretary Scott Bessent told the Economic Club of Minnesota on Thursday. The US Treasury Department will oversee the funds generated from the sales of Venezuelan oil, he said. By Aydin Calik and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec

08/01/26
News
08/01/26

Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec

Mexico City, 8 January (Argus) — Mexico's inflation decelerated to an annual 3.69pc in December, the lowest reading for the month since 2020, mainly driven by slowing agriculture and energy prices, alongside some easing in core inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) eased from 3.80pc in November, statistics agency Inegi said Thursday, after accelerating from 3.57pc in October. Inflation has trended higher since July, when it stood at 3.51pc — the lowest annual headline reading since December 2020. The annual figure was down from 4.21pc in December 2024 and marked the lowest year-end reading since 3.15pc in December 2020. The result came in below the 3.6pc forecast by Mexican bank Banamex, "interrupting the upward trend recorded since August, which we anticipate will resume in January." The bank added that full-year inflation for 2025 was below the historical average of 4.4pc. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.33pc in December from 4.43pc in November, after accelerating from 4.28pc in October. This marked an eighth consecutive month above 4pc — the upper bound of the central bank's target range. Within core inflation, consumer goods eased to 4.30pc from 4.37pc in November, while services slowed to 4.35pc in December from 4.49pc. Among the largest contributors to CPI in December, weighted by Inegi, were tourism-related components, particularly airfare and long-distance bus fares ahead of the holiday season. Non-core inflation decelerated to 1.61pc in December from 1.73pc in November, remaining below 2pc in five of the past six months. Agriculture prices — especially fruits and vegetables — have been subdued this year by favorable weather conditions, although pressures are beginning to build. Annual inflation for fruits and vegetables contracted by 5.62pc in December, compared with contractions of 7.79pc in November and 10.27pc in October. The segment has faced rising inflationary pressure, Mexican bank Banorte said, driven by extreme rainfall in several states in November and nationwide roadblocks organized by freight truck associations in December. Energy price inflation slowed to 0.18pc in December from 0.54pc in October and 1.07pc in September. Inflation in the segment has remained contained since President Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary regular gasoline price cap of Ps24/l ($5.05/USG) for six months. Looking ahead, Banamex expects an increase in merchandise inflation at the start of 2026 due to higher tariffs and taxes, forecasting headline and core inflation to end 2026 at 4.3pc and 4.2pc, respectively. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Canadian crude prices drop with Ven oil sale plan

07/01/26
News
07/01/26

Canadian crude prices drop with Ven oil sale plan

Houston, 7 January (Argus) — Canadian crude prices have fallen further against the February CMA Nymex, especially in US markets, as Venezuelan heavy sour crude moving under US control is poised to add to already ample near-term heavy sour supplies. Western Canadian Select (WCS) in the Houston and Cushing markets saw deep drops of $2.50-$3.50/bl earlier today from the prior session relative to the basis, followed by narrower discounts that were still at the widest since July 2024. This follows news that US president Donald Trump's administration is planning to taking over oil sales from Venezuelan state-owned oil company PdV "indefinitely". The US plans to partially lifts sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector, but deposit sales proceeds in US-controlled bank accounts, the US Department of Energy (DOE) said. Initially, the US will take possession of an estimated 30mn-60mn bl of crude held in floating storage or onshore Venezuelan storage. Heavy sour Canadian Cold Lake at the Texas Gulf coast traded at $7.50-$9.60/bl discounts to the basis earlier in the day Wednesday after moving to a $6.60/bl volume-weighted average discount on Tuesday. In US markets, Cold Lake and Canadian heavy benchmark WCS trade at parity. In Cushing, the low-TAN heavy sour has traded at $8.50-$10/bl discounts to CMA Nymex. In Hardisty, Alberta, WCS was heard Wednesday widening its discount by 35¢/bl from the prior session to $14.35/bl. Discounts for all three locations were already $1.20-$1.85/bl wider than a month earlier as values face pressure because of rising heavy sour supply and slower export demand . The US refinery turnaround season in the first quarter further undermines buying interest. Recent developments suggest more Venezuelan heavy crude could flow to the US Gulf coast refinery region, which hosts complex refineries with many built originally to run heavy Latin American crude. But the development of Canadian heavy oils sands has led to high imports from the US' northern neighbor, with which increased Venezuelan oil flows would compete Earlier this week, Phillips 66 said it could process about 200,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude at its two large Gulf coast refineries if available and supported by price economics. Venezuela's crude output was 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus. Increasing Venezuelan production significantly would likely take many years given long-term underinvestment and neglect. But in the short-term flows could be redirected from Chinese independent refiners to other markets with the partial lifting of US oil sanctions. By Amanda Smith and Mykah Briscoe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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