Opec+ officials are adopting a wait-and-see approach to developments in Venezuela, sources from the producer group told Argus.
"It is too early to draw conclusions on the market impact of a potential return of US oil companies to Venezuela," sources said, noting the situation remains fluid and that "a lot of dust still needs to settle" before any meaningful assessment can be made.
US president Donald Trump on 9 January hosted nearly 20 oil industry executives at the White House in an attempt to persuade them back to Venezuela.
The South American country is a member of the Opec+ producer group, but is exempt from output targets because years of sanctions have suppressed its production.
Opec+ officials are playing down the likelihood of a rapid revival in Venezuelan output, pointing out that US oil companies face governance constraints and board and shareholder scrutiny, and that rebuilding Venezuela's oil sector would be a long, capital-intensive process requiring stable and consistent policy well beyond the current US administration.
Similar views were expressed by some oil executives during last week's meeting with Trump, when ExxonMobil [chief executive Darren Woods] (https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2774418) called the legal and commercial frameworks in place in Venezuela "uninvestible". US oil companies are wary, having exited Venezuela nearly 20 years ago following expropriation of assets, and executives want durable reforms alongside security guarantees.
Trump has offered "total safety, total security" for oil companies operating in Venezuela, without elaborating on how such these would be guaranteed.
Opec+ officials have long argued, in private, that sanctions on oil-producing countries have reduced market visibility and increased volatility. The current situation in Venezuela could ultimately improve transparency around supply prospects, even if actual output increases take time to materialise.
Near-term production gains could be achieved in 18–36 months, according to executives at oil companies already operating in Venezuela, including Chevron and Spain's Repsol. Estimates presented by their senior executives last week point to a combined output increase of around 300,000 b/d over that period.
Opec+ raised production for the first time in three years in 2025. Argus estimates Opec+ output rose by an average of 1.45mn b/d, to 40.65mn b/d in 2025, largely driven by the eight core members rolling back part of their additional cuts. Another increase will happen this year if Opec+ sticks to its current plans.
