The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its US corn yield and harvested acreage estimates for the 2025-26 marketing year, boosting estimated production by 1.6pc.
According to the January update of the USDA's flagship World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report, US corn production is now pegged at 432mn metric tonnes (t), a 6.83mn t gain from the month prior. The production boost comes from a 1.3mn acre increase to harvested acreage — despite planted acres only rising by 100,000 acres — and a nearly 3pc increase to yields.
Market participants had pegged the USDA's previous yield estimates as optimistic and had expected the January Wasde to feature a downward revision to corn production, not an upward one.
The USDA also lifted 2025-26 beginning stocks by 483,000t on account of lower use figures for 2024-25, pushing total supply up by 7.32mn t from December's estimates.
Most of the added supply — 5.03mn t — was added to ending stocks, a 9.8pc increase from the December Wasde. The USDA also increased domestic use by 2.29mn t, while leaving export estimates unchanged at 81.3mn t for the year.
The stock-to-use ratio rose by 1.41 percentage points to 13.6pc. Historically, higher stock-to-use ratios correlate with lower commodity prices.
Futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were quick to fall in the aftermath of the Wasderelease, with the March-delivered corn contract closing the day down 5.38pc.
Soybean exports slashed
US soybean exports were revised down by 1.63mn t to 42.9mn t, a 3.7pc decline from December and the projected lowest level since the US' 2012 drought-stricken crop.
With the decrease in exports, ending stocks forecast rose by 1.63mn t to 9.53mn t.
Total supply estimates for 2025-26 also inched up by 463,000t from the December Wasde, attributable to a 100,000 acre boost in harvested area and an uptick in beginning stocks. The added supply went toward a 408,000t increase in crushing and 54,000t rise in residual use.
Market reactions to the change in the soybean supply book were not as pronounced as corn, but the mix of higher production and fewer exports did provide downward pressure to the market. At the close of trade Monday, the March-delivered soybean contract on the CBOT was down by 1.13pc for the day.
Few changes to US wheat
The USDA made few adjustments to the wheat balance sheet for 2025-26, leaving production estimates and export forecasts unchanged.
The ending stocks forecast rose by 680,000t to 25.2mn t on account of a 572,000t decrease to total domestic use and a minor boost to beginning stocks for the year. Larger beginning stocks came out of a small cut to 2024-25 use volumes.
| January 2026 USDA Projections | mn t | |||
| 2025/26 | Chg from Dec | 2024/25 | Chg from Dec | |
| U.S. corn supply and use | ||||
| Acres planted | 98.80 | 0.10 | 90.90 | 0.00 |
| Acres harvested | 91.30 | 1.30 | 83.00 | 0.00 |
| Yield t per acre | 4.74 | 0.01 | 4.56 | 0.00 |
| Supply | ||||
| -Beginning stocks | 39.40 | 0.48 | 44.78 | 0.00 |
| -Production | 432.35 | 6.83 | 378.27 | 0.00 |
| -Imports | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.00 |
| Total supply | 472.39 | 7.32 | 423.62 | 0.00 |
| Use | ||||
| -Feed and residual | 157.49 | 2.54 | 138.54 | -0.30 |
| -Food, seed and industrial | 177.05 | -0.25 | 173.06 | -0.20 |
| --Ethanol and by-products | 142.25 | 0.00 | 138.08 | 0.00 |
| --Other use | 34.80 | -0.25 | 34.98 | -0.20 |
| -Total domestic use | 334.53 | 2.29 | 311.60 | -0.51 |
| -Exports | 81.28 | 0.00 | 72.60 | 0.00 |
| Total use | 415.82 | 2.29 | 384.22 | -0.48 |
| -Ending stocks | 56.57 | 5.03 | 39.40 | 0.48 |
| -Stocks-to-use pc | 13.60 | 1.14 | 10.25 | 0.14 |
| U.S. wheat supply and use | ||||
| Acres planted | 45.30 | 0.00 | 46.30 | 0.00 |
| Acres harvested | 37.20 | 0.00 | 38.60 | 0.00 |
| Yield t per acre | 1.45 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| Supply | ||||
| -Beginning stocks | 23.27 | 0.11 | 18.94 | 0.00 |
| -Production | 54.02 | 0.00 | 53.86 | 0.00 |
| -Imports | 3.27 | 0.00 | 4.06 | 0.00 |
| Total supply | 80.53 | 0.11 | 76.86 | 0.00 |
| Use | ||||
| --Food | 26.45 | 0.00 | 26.37 | 0.00 |
| --Seed | 1.66 | -0.03 | 1.66 | 0.00 |
| --Feed and residual | 2.72 | -0.54 | 3.08 | -0.11 |
| -Total domestic use | 30.84 | -0.57 | 31.11 | -0.14 |
| -Exports | 24.49 | 0.00 | 22.48 | 0.00 |
| Total use | 55.33 | -0.57 | 53.59 | -0.14 |
| -Ending stocks | 25.20 | 0.68 | 23.27 | 0.11 |
| -Stocks-to-use pc | 45.55 | 1.68 | 43.42 | 0.31 |
| U.S. soybeans supply and use | ||||
| Acres planted | 81.20 | 0.10 | 87.30 | 0.00 |
| Acres harvested | 80.40 | 0.10 | 86.20 | 0.00 |
| Yield t per acre | 1.44 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 0.00 |
| Supply | ||||
| -Beginning stocks | 8.85 | 0.24 | 9.31 | 0.00 |
| -Production | 115.99 | 0.24 | 119.04 | 0.00 |
| -Imports | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.00 |
| Total Supply | 125.38 | 0.46 | 129.17 | 0.00 |
| Use | ||||
| -Crushings | 69.94 | 0.41 | 66.54 | 0.00 |
| -Seed | 1.99 | 0.00 | 1.91 | 0.00 |
| -Residual | 1.06 | 0.05 | 0.63 | -0.24 |
| -Exports | 42.86 | -1.63 | 51.22 | 0.00 |
| Total use | 115.86 | -1.17 | 120.32 | -0.22 |
| -Ending stocks | 9.53 | 1.63 | 8.85 | 0.24 |
| -Stocks-to-use pc | 8.22 | 1.48 | 7.35 | 0.22 |
| — USDA, Argus | ||||
