The US light sweet benchmark will fall below $50/bl later this year and into 2027 as a global crude surplus persists, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today.
WTI crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $52.21/bl across 2026, EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), a 79¢/bl upward revision from its December forecast. WTI has hovered near $58/bl in the early days of 2026, but EIA expects that to steadily fall to $49.34/bl in the fourth quarter.
WTI will then bottom out at $49/bl in first-quarter 2027 and average $50.36/bl across the year, according to EIA.
The agency made similar revisions to Brent crude, which is now forecast to average $55.87/bl in 2026 and $54.02/bl in 2027.
Crude output from the US will fall from a record high 13.61mn b/d in 2025 to 13.59mn b/d in 2026, EIA predicts. A slowdown in drilling activity will outpace drilling productivity gains, and output will fall further to 13.25mn b/d in 2027 as US producers contend with rising global supply.
"Global liquid fuels production growth in 2026 is driven by crude oil production growth in Opec+, while production growth in 2027 is driven by countries outside of Opec +, primarily in South America," EIA said.
The agency expects global output at 107.65mn b/d in 2026, a 220,000 b/d upward revision from last month's STEO and up from 106.28mn b/d estimated for 2025. Production is expected to climb further to 108.18mn b/d in 2027.
Consumption will continue to trail production this year, but the gap will narrow somewhat in 2027, EIA predicts. Consumption is expected to average 104.82mn b/d in 2026, a 350,000 b/d reduction from last month's STEO, before rising to 106.09mn b/d across 2027. The corresponding global surplus is expected to be 2.83mn b/d in 2026 and 2.09mn b/d in 2027.
EIA assumes sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027.
