India's transition towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070 is set to sharply reduce the role of fossil fuels while driving a rise in electricity demand, but the country will require $22.7 trillion to achieve its targets, according to a report released today by government think-tank Niti Aayog.
Achieving the net zero pathway requires cumulative investment of $22.7 trillion by 2070, with the power sector accounting for more than half of total capital needs, reflecting its central role in enabling economy-wide electrification, the report said.
The report projects that fossil fuels could account for 54pc of India's primary energy mix by 2070 under its current policy scenario (CPS), down from 87pc in 2025. Under the net zero scenario, the fossil fuel share declines further to 14pc by 2070, with remaining fossil fuel use largely paired with carbon capture solutions.
Coal, oil and natural gas demand trajectories diverge significantly between the two scenarios. Under the current policy scenario, fossil fuel demand continues to rise through mid-century. Under the net zero scenario, coal, oil and gas demand fall sharply by 2070, driven by higher electrification, efficiency gains, the development of circular economy and the substitution of fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives.
India's final energy demand is projected to increase from 688mn t of oil equivalent in 2025 to 1.81bn t of oil equivalent by 2070 under current policies. Under the net zero scenario, final energy demand reaches 1.47bn t of oil equivalent by 2070, around 20pc lower than the current policy pathway, reflecting reduced energy intensity despite an eleven-fold expansion in GDP.
Electricity demand rises sharply in both scenarios. Power consumption increases from 1,541TWh in 2024 to 9,800TWh by 2070 under current policies and to 13,000TWh under the net zero scenario, as electricity use expands across transport, industry, buildings and cooking.
The share of electricity in final energy demand increases from 21pc in 2025 to 40pc by 2070 under current policies and to 60pc under the net zero scenario. Per-capita electricity consumption rises from about 1,400kWh in 2025 to 7,000-10,000kWh by 2070, comparable with levels in advanced economies.
The power generation mix shifts decisively away from fossil fuels under both scenarios. Non-fossil electricity generation increases from 23pc in 2025 to more than 80pc by 2070 under current policies and to 100pc under the net zero scenario. Grid carbon intensity declines from 0.72kg CO2/kWh in 2025 to near zero by 2070 under the net zero pathway.
Variable renewable energy capacity expands sharply in both scenarios, supported by energy storage. Nuclear power also scales up significantly, rising from around 8GW in 2025 to 90-130GW by 2070 under current policies and to 290-320GW under the net zero scenario, providing firm low-carbon generation.
The country's energy transition also reduces its exposure to fossil fuel imports. The report projects fossil fuel revenues falling from 2.3pc of GDP in 2022 to 0.2pc by 2070 under the net zero scenario, while the fuel import bill declines from 4pc of GDP to 0.2pc over the same period. India's crude import bill was nearly $138.85bn for 2025, down by about 6pc from $147.23bn in 2024, according to latest government data.
