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Latest market news

Australia’s BHP to invest in copper projects

  • Market: Metals
  • 17/02/26

Australian producer BHP has outlined a pipeline of global copper projects that could increase its total production capacity by 1.8mn-2mn t over the next decade, supporting expected growth in copper demand.

The company plans to make final investment decisions on these projects between 2026-2032 (see table), with start ups scheduled from 2028 onward, according to data from BHP's half year report released on 17 February.

BHP has kept its copper production guidance for the July 2025-June 2026 financial year unchanged from late January at 1.9mn-2mn t.

The firm's largest planned copper projects are the Copper South Australia Phase 1 and Phase 2 growth projects, scheduled to come on line between 2029 and 2038. Together, the projects are expected to lift BHP's copper output capacity by 790,000-910,000t over that period.

BHP invested $555mn into its South Australian copper operations to raise production in October 2025. It produced 22,200t of copper concentrate, down 14pc on the year, and 52,900t of copper cathode, up 17pc on the year, in October-December 2025.

Producers need to commit 10mn t/yr of additional capacity by 2035 to address copper supply shortfalls, BHP said. The company expects global copper demand to grow from around 34mn t/yr in 2026 to over 50mn t/yr by 2050 because of economic growth, renewable transition projects, and digital infrastructure projects, it added.

BHP's forecast aligns with that of other major producers. Australian producer South32 — formerly a BHP subsidiary — projected an 8mn t/yr copper supply shortfall by 2035 on 12 February. Chilean copper commission Cochilco and Russian producer Nornickel also expect copper deficits.

By Avinash Govind

BHP Project Pipeline
ProjectFID DateStart DateProduction
Escondida (new concentrator)2027-282031-32220-260
Vicuña - Stage 120262030200.0
Spence chalcopyrite leaching2026202840-60
Copper SA Phase 1 - smelter and refinery20272032380-500
Copper SA Phase 1 - mines and concentrators 2027 and 20292029220.0
Cerro Colorado restart2028-312031-3485-100
Vicuña - all stages2027-2030s2030-mid 2030s500.0
Copper SA Phase 220322038190.0
Production is approximate
Source: BHP
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16/02/26

Rio Tinto pauses Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea

Rio Tinto pauses Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea

Sydney, 16 February (Argus) — UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto has suspended production at its Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea after the death of a contractor working at the site. A thorough investigation will be launched following the incident at the SimFer site on 14 February, Rio Tinto said on 15 February. No details regarding the cause of death were provided. The mine's first shipment was in early December. Rio Tinto is targeting sales of 5mn–6mn t of ore from Simandou in 2026 and 60mn t/yr of ore at the mine by 2028. The high-grade deposit is split into four blocks. Rio Tinto operates blocks three and four. Singaporean firm Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS) operates blocks one and two and aims to reach a capacity of 60mn–80mn t/yr. WCS paused operations after three workers were killed late last year , with the development of the Simandou resource resulting in a total of 16 deaths to early October 2025. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US inflation slows to 2.4pc in January

13/02/26
News
13/02/26

US inflation slows to 2.4pc in January

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — US headline inflation slowed to an eight-month low in January, a sign that supply chains may have largely absorbed the effects of tariffs. The consumer price index (CPI) cooled to a 2.4pc annual pace in January, down from 2.7pc in December and November and below the 2.5pc forecast average in a Trading Economics survey. It was the lowest monthly reading since May last year. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose at an annual 2.5pc pace, slowing from 2.6pc in December. "The downside surprise in the January CPI is welcome news for the Federal Reserve," Oxford Economics said in a research note. "Lingering distortions from the (partial government) shutdown in the price data, prospects for solid growth this year, and a stabilizing job market will keep the central bank on hold until June." The lack of typical January upside surprises, Oxford said, "is further reinforcing our view that tariff-induced price increases on the goods side are largely behind us." Services less energy services, considered a core measure of services, rose by 2.9pc in January, slowing from 3pc in December. Gasoline falls 7.5pc The energy index fell by a 0.1pc annual pace in January compared with a 2.3pc gain a month earlier. Gasoline declined by 7.5pc compared with a 3.4pc drop a month earlier. The fuel oil index fell at a 4.2pc annual pace after rising by 7.4pc in the prior month. Energy services rose by 7.2pc, slowing from a 7.7pc annual gain in December. Piped natural gas was up by 9.8pc compared with 10.8pc the prior month. Electricity rose by 6.3pc, slowing from a 6.7pc pace a month prior. Shelter rose by 3pc from a year earlier, slowing from a 3.2pc annual gain in December. Medical care services rose by 3.9pc compared with a 3.5pc annual gain a month earlier. Transportation services rose at a 1.3pc pace, compared with a 1.5pc gain a month earlier. New vehicles rose at a 0.4pc annual rate compared with a 0.3pc gain in December. Used vehicles fell by 2pc on the year compared with 1.6pc gain a month earlier. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australia should have CBAM on some commodities: Review

13/02/26
News
13/02/26

Australia should have CBAM on some commodities: Review

Sydney, 13 February (Argus) — Australia should consider introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), starting with imports of cement and clinker and potentially expanding to products such as hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives like urea and ammonium phosphate, according to a key report released by the government today. The identified commodities face risk of future carbon leakage from imports, which could lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions being relocated from Australia to overseas. The carbon leakage review , led by Australian National University professor Frank Jotzo between July 2023 and March 2025, assessed leakage risks in 2030 for all 75 trade-exposed commodities under Australia's safeguard mechanism across 42 commodity groups. The review was announced as part of the 2023 reform of the safeguard mechanism While current safeguard mechanism settings are effective at mitigating carbon leakage risk in the short- to medium-term, the declining emissions baselines under the scheme could put some of the identified sectors at a "more significant" risk over time, according to the report. Cement and clinker first, others to follow Risks are higher for cement and clinker, and the implementation of a border carbon adjustment for these products "is likely to be simplest," according to the report. Australian production of lime and glass, on the other hand, is only partially covered under the safeguard mechanism, and a CBAM application would face more complexity. Hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives carry material carbon leakage risks, but feature more complexity with respect to production methods, supply chains, and product diversity. Some of these products are also only partially covered by the safeguard mechanism. The government should also consider potential risks for a second group of commodities, consisting of aluminium and alumina, refined petroleum, and pulp and paper. These products face mixed evidence related to leakage risk indicators and analysis of trade and investment leakage, but the government could assess them in the forthcoming review of the safeguard mechanism scheduled for the July 2026-June 2027 financial year and consider particularly the suitability of arrangements for emissions-intensive trade-exposed activities for all commodities under the scheme. Preference for fees instead of ACCU surrenders The safeguard mechanism covers over 200 individual facilities emitting more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a compliance year across the oil and gas, mining, manufacturing, transport and waste sectors. Facilities earn Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) if their reported scope 1 emissions fall below their baselines, and must surrender SMCs or Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) if emissions exceed the threshold. If the Australian government decides to pursue a CBAM, it should consider applying liabilities only to scope 1 emissions that exceed the relevant safeguard mechanism baseline at the time of import. The assessment should be based on explicit carbon prices only, and the liability should account for the differences between the effective carbon price paid in the originating country and an Australian benchmark price. While importers could, in principle, clear the liability by paying a fee or surrendering ACCUs, there was "broad support" for the fee option during the consultation, according to the report. Surrendering ACCUs would more closely reflect domestic requirements, but trading in ACCUs has legislative requirements that would have to be met by importers which would require careful consideration, the report warned. The ACCU purchase option would create additional demand for the product, raising prices. But stakeholder feedback "reflected concerns about the potential impact on ACCU supply" if these carbon credit units were used to meet carbon border adjustment liabilities. The government should not consider a carbon border adjustment that provides rebates for exports, as that would be inconsistent with Australia's emissions reduction targets and could raise considerable international trade law concerns. "Rebating emissions obligations to exports would effectively exempt production for export from emissions reductions obligations, running counter to overall policy objectives towards net zero and increasing the required emissions reductions elsewhere in the economy," the report read. Teba provisions could be removed Trade-exposed, baseline-adjusted (Teba) facilities operating in emission-intensive sectors that might face unfair competition from imports from countries with weaker or no emission reduction policies currently benefit from discounted baseline decline rates under the safeguard mechanism. Decline rates can be as low as 2pc for non-manufacturing sectors or 1pc for manufacturing sectors, compared with the standard 4.9pc/yr declining rate until 2030. The Teba provisions for a commodity should be removed once a border carbon adjustment is fully implemented for that commodity, according to the review. Limited impact on downstream activity The report also noted that analysis indicates the impact of a carbon border adjustment on downstream activity, such as construction, would be "very limited". "The review's analysis suggests that the maximum price impacts on final goods that incorporate commodities that may be subject to a border carbon adjustment, such as wind farms, house construction and crops like wheat, would be vanishingly small as a share of product prices," the report said. The government said today it will continue to consult on carbon leakage with affected industries, and will consider the report's recommendations in the safeguard mechanism review. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US aims to process critical minerals in Brazil

12/02/26
News
12/02/26

US aims to process critical minerals in Brazil

Sao Paulo, 12 February (Argus) — The US is interested in developing critical minerals processing capacity in Brazil and is in active negotiations with Brazilian authorities to do so, US assistant secretary of state Caleb Orr said in a press conference late Wednesday. The US sees Brazil as an 'essential' partner in building a resilient Western critical minerals supply chain, and is actively exploring ways to build processing capacity in the country through financing from its Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and technical cooperation, Orr said during the Zoom press conference with Latin American media focussed on last week's critical minerals ministerial meeting in Washington, DC. "Brazil has immensely rich natural critical minerals reserves," Orr said, but the US is focused on heavy rare earths, he signaled. The DFC has recently backed both the Serra Verde and Aclara rare earth projects in the Brazilian state of Goiás. Serra Verde achieved commercial production in 2024, but is expected to increase rare-earths oxide production to 6,500 metric tonnes (t)/yr by 2027 following DFC's investment. Aclara is scheduled to come on line in the second half of 2028, with ramp-up throughout 2029. Both firms produce — or aim to — a mixed rare earth carbonate with an elevated proportion of heavy rare earths, especially dysprosium and terbium, which are key feedstocks to rare earth magnets. "The US is already financing some [heavy rare earths] projects [in Brazil]," said Orr, whose focus is economics, energy and business affairs . "I think it's a natural next step to help encourage processing." The US is in active negotiations with Brazil on critical minerals processing, Orr said, noting that its diversified economy and sophistication would "enable" the US to conduct processing in the country. Brazil, however, would still need to allow the US to develop mineral processing in Brazilian territory. Orr deflected questions regarding whether this would be a topic during Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's trip to the White House in March, but acknowledged that the US's approach on this matter required "strong partnerships." "We want to get to a great trade deal with Brazil that includes critical minerals," Orr said. "We view Brazil's participation in last week's critical minerals ministerial meeting as a key step forward toward that goal." Brazil has the world's largest niobium reserves, ranking second in rare earths and graphite reserves, third in nickel, and sixth in lithium, according to the Brazilian geological service SGB. The US has already signed critical minerals cooperation agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru. During his press conference, Orr also highlighted Argentina as a key partner for copper and lithium projects. Brazil wants to add processing capacity Processing is a top priority for Brazil's critical minerals industry, as noted by several market participants and president Lula himself. Despite having world-leading reserves of critical minerals, Brazil's potential in this field remains largely untapped. It accounted for less than 1pc of global rare earths production in 2024, for instance. President Lula is willing to allow foreign companies to explore the country's critical mineral reserves, provided they also invest in building downstream facilities that establish an end-to-end value chain within Brazil. "We are not going to be exporters of critical minerals," he said in a speech last November . "If [foreign companies] want [to explore] them, they will have to industrialize in our country so that our country can earn that money." Lula's call for mining industrialization echoes appeals from market participants of the critical minerals industry, especially on the battery materials front. Lithium miners have asked for incentive policies to push for an end-to-end supply chain — and Brazil's newly founded critical minerals association AMC agrees. "Brazil is in a position to become the world's leading critical minerals player, but it lacks the fiscal incentives to do so," [AMC's board president Marisa Cesar told Argus ](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2759016) . "This leads to other countries offering more favorable economics for midstream and downstream plants than Brazil." By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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ISTA blames lack of investment for Tata UK issues

12/02/26
News
12/02/26

ISTA blames lack of investment for Tata UK issues

London, 12 February (Argus) — A lack of structural change and investment has caused Tata Steel UK's financial problems, not imports, the International Steel Trade Association (ISTA) said in a letter to government ministers on 10 February. ISTA was countering assertions by Tata that it may have to mothball some operations if imports are not reduced. "We welcome the continued open and constructive engagement of ministers and the Department for Business and Trade [DBT] with our associations; in this regard, we must express our severe concern that these threats being made by Tata do not give them the benefit of undue influence over government's decisions in the way that it seems that they did when they pressed secretary of state [Jonathan] Reynolds last summer," ISTA said. Tata argued last year against a Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) recommendation to impose a 40pc cap on the other countries' quota for hot-dip galvanised coil, leading Reynolds to impose a 15pc cap that stranded months of supply and forced buyers to duplicate orders and book from Turkey. The government intends to make a statement on the new quota regime around 1 April, with implementation from 1 July. Some sources suggest Tata has proposed two quotas per product, one for EU-origin material and one for the rest of the world. Non-EU imports "have always played a vital part of the UK steel market, maintaining a share close to 35pc", ISTA said. Third-country material constituted 25pc of import supply in the first 11 months of 2025, with EU material constituting almost three-quarters, up from 62pc in 2024. The Netherlands was the biggest source, with shipments of 355,168t, almost 27pc of the 1.32mn t total. France was the second-largest supplier at almost 25pc, while Germany and Belgium each supplied around 7pc. Dutch volumes were likely driven by shipments from Tata Ijmuiden to its UK sister company and were the most price-competitive EU volumes, with an average landed cost of £525/t ($715/t). Japan was the lowest-price source in January-November at £458/t, followed by Egypt at £466/t and Taiwan at £473/t. Japanese material has typically been bought into the larger 1B quota for substantial downstream transformation, while a Geneva-based trader has primarily supplied Egyptian material to one service centre in the Midlands. UK strip demand dropped from 5.3mn t in 2018 to 3.6mn t in 2025, while quotas have increased each year, giving imports more market share, a source close to Tata said. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports from the rest of the world excluding Europe have risen from 202,490t in 2018 to 308,346t over the first 11 months of last year. South Korea and Japan, which each sell into the 1A and 1B quotas for HRC in the UK, have increased volumes significantly — South Korea from 7,335t to 58,688t and Japan from 21t to 40,718t. "We welcome the support of downstream steel users and agree that any replacement for the current safeguards must work for the whole UK steel supply chain," a Tata Steel UK spokesperson told Argus . "For this reason, the UK industry is pursuing a balanced quota approach rather than a blanket tariff. The global market continues to be defined by significant overcapacity, with excess steel being pushed into export markets. The US and EU have strengthened their trade defences in response. The UK market, on the other hand, continues to be disrupted by low-priced imports and short-term opportunistic behaviour." Since buying Corus in 2007, Tata has invested over £6bn in the UK business. It took both its blast furnaces off line last year and transitioned to re-rolling while its 3mn t/yr electric arc furnace is installed. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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