Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader since 1989, was killed in the US-Israeli attack on Iran, US president Donald Trump said on Saturday.
"Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead," Trump posted on social media. "He was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do."
Tehran has not confirmed Khamenei's death. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi earlier on Saturday told BBC that Khamenei was alive "as far as I know". Iranian television previewed a possible address by Khamenei but never showed any footage.
The supreme leader is the de-facto head of state, while the president, currently Mahmoud Pezeshkian, directs day-to-day operations of the government. There is no automatic succession for Khamenei if he is dead — Iran's Assembly of Experts, comprised of senior clerics, must choose his replacement from among its ranks.
Israel's defense forces claimed to have also killed the senior military leaders of Iran, including the defense minister and the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The US military on Saturday began what Trump called "major combat operations" in Iran, with coordinated Israeli strikes, marking the most significant escalation in years in the oil-rich Mideast Gulf and sharply raising the risk of oil and gas supply disruptions. Iran retaliated by missile strikes on neighboring Mideast Gulf Arab states that host US military installations and on targets in Israel. The US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain appears to have taken a direct hit, but no information is immediately available on US casualties.
Trump's previous course of military action against Iran and elsewhere indicates a strong preference for a short military campaign followed by a quick declaration of victory.
But his insistence on Saturday morning that the military operation he ordered aims to carry out regime change in Tehran may leave the Iranian leaders with no acceptable exit ramp.
Trump took a further escalatory step in his post announcing Khamenei's death, effectively suggesting that the US attacks would continue even if there is a change of government underway in Iran.
Trump claimed that many members of IRGC, the country's military, police and other security forces are no longer interested in fighting and invited them to ask for "immunity" from the US.
"Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves," Trump posted.
The US' "heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective" of peace, Trump said.
Any Iranian leader interested in a deal with Trump would also have to consider whether the sides can negotiate in good faith.
The Trump administration was negotiating with Iran despite making preparations for the military attacks and decapitation strikes. The latest round of indirect talks on 26 February made progress, and diplomats from both countries were poised to meet in Vienna next week, according to Oman's foreign minister Badr Albusaidi, who mediated the talks.
Albusaidi traveled to Washington on Friday to lobby the Trump administration not to abandon the diplomatic track.
"I am dismayed," Albusaidi said via a social media post Saturday. "Active and serious negotiations have yet again been undermined," he said, urging the US "not to get sucked in further."
Known unknowns
Military resources deployed by the US and Israel indicate preparation for a campaign of missile, drone and air strikes over multiple days, rather than a ground invasion and prolonged conflict. The key unknown factor is how long the war will last and how deeply it will affect the flow of crude, LNG and other energy commodities in the Mideast Gulf and the Red Sea.
Several Mideast Gulf countries closed their airspace, and major international airlines suspended operations on Saturday. Multiple vessels operating in the Mideast Gulf received radio transmissions on Saturday stating that the strait of Hormuz has been closed. Insurance companies began pulling coverage from vessels exposed to the strait of Hormuz on Saturday, triggering a seven-day cancellation clause that would force shipowners to seek alternative cover. They also began raising additional war risk premiums on vessels.
At least nine LNG carriers today changed course away from the strait, although the number may be even higher as AIS transponder interference in the region has obfuscated shiptracking.
