Re-export demand for DAP at New Orleans (Nola) drove prices higher today as traders looked to capture a premium in the global market while the US-Israel conflict with Iran unfolds.
At least 30,000 short tonnes (st) of DAP were sold Monday morning at Nola. Multiple March barges at Nola traded from $640-645/st fob, with most recent offers for the loading period at $650/st fob. That is up $25.50/st or 4pc from business trade last week at $617/st fob Nola.
Nearly all of the DAP barges were sold for re-export to a major global distributor with a notable position in Latin America, according to multiple sources.
Re-exports from Nola will tighten the US market, but sellers today believe they could shave some of their stocks, sources said. US grower demand for P2O5 this spring could still be subject to demand destruction because of low affordability for phosphate fertilizer.
Meanwhile, a sizeable volume of DAP recently reached the Nola port. At least 170,000t of DAP were unloaded at Nola in February, with 132,000t of Saudi Arabian DAP being dropped into the port last week alone, according to vessel tracking data and Argus estimates.
Global market participants expect supply to tighten, especially from Saudi Arabia because of the conflict in Iran. Loading operations at Saudi Arabia's Ras Al-Khair port are reportedly proceeding normally, but cargoes loaded from the port must pass through the strait of Hormuz to reach their destination markets. Any disruption to shipping through the strait could affect phosphate exports. Roughly 80,000-85,000t of DAP/MAP is expected to load or ship this month from the Ras Al-Khair port to Latin America, according to sales reported by Saudi Arabia's Maaden and Sabic.
The US phosphate market will further tighten as well, just days away from the start of farmer applications across the Corn Belt, with DAP tons being redirected from the Nola port back into the global market.
Ammonia applications are nearly done in Kansas and Nebraska, which usually means phosphate and potash applications should follow, one distributor said. If Saudi Arabia imports are reduced or delayed, the US supply outlook becomes more snug, they said.
Additionally, some traders expected the significant increase in Nola urea prices on Monday morning would incentivize more growers to turn to phosphate and potash during the spring application season. But with a massive wave of DAP now being sold for re-export, US traders feel more uncertain about near-term supply and demand fundamentals for multiple fertilizer products.
Because US crop prices are relatively low, farmers will have little ability to absorb higher fertilizer prices if the Iran conflict continues to tighten global fertilizer supplies.
