US to roll out oil market calming measures

Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
04/03/26

President Donald Trump's administration is set to roll out additional measures aimed to calm global energy markets spooked by the US-Israel war on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory attacks on shipping and infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf.

The US will make a "series of announcements" about stabilizing oil and LNG shipments out of the Mideast Gulf, treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Wednesday. Trump on Tuesday already ordered US government finance provider Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to offer political risk insurance and naval convoys for ships transporting energy and other commodities through the Mideast Gulf.

DFC did not immediately outline how it will implement Trump's order. The agency's mandate already includes political risk insurance for specific projects and "DFC will help ensure commerce, capital, and energy can operate at capacity during the ongoing conflict", chief executive Ben Black said, inviting shippers and financial institutions to contact the agency directly.

"DFC can either provide insurance directly or reinsure an insurer, the latter of which might be the easiest thing to do," advocacy group FDD senior adviser and former Trump White House staff member Rich Goldberg told Argus.

Another possible measure could include invoking "the Merchant Marine Act of 1936, which provides the US Maritime Administration with authority to issue war risk insurance and reinsurance in the maritime domain", Goldberg said.

Trump also said that the Pentagon would provide naval escorts for the hundreds of ships stuck in the Mideast Gulf. Senior US military commanders in briefings on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning did not address the possible naval escorts and said the US will soon degrade Iran's capacity to launch missiles and drones at its neighbors.

Trump's offer of US-backed insurance for the Mideast Gulf shipping sent US benchmark WTI crude futures slightly lower in Tuesday's session. But some traders expressed skepticism about how quickly the plan can be implemented and whether it would help reopen shipping lanes in the world's largest oil-producing region.

The offer would effectively be "like painting a massive target on your ship", one trader told Argus, because "Iran would be directly forcing US taxpayers to foot the war bill".

The US plan also would put it in an awkward position of having to underwrite energy shipments out of the region to China and other destinations in Asia.

The measures outlined by the Trump administration so far focused on enabling energy carrying vessels to transit the strait of Hormuz. Ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical shipping lane for oil, LNG and other commodities — has almost ground to a halt since US and Israeli forces struck Iran on 28 February. Another vessel was targeted in the Mideast Gulf on Wednesday, fresh reports from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicate, adding to the growing list of incidents in the region. Three tankers commercially operated by Greek shipowner Dynacom Tankers Management passed through the strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to a shipbroker.

Ship insurers require Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRPs) for vessels passing through designated risky areas to maintain coverage. Last week, ahead of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, AWRP in the Mideast Gulf stood at 0.15–0.2pc of a vessel's hull and machinery value, according to insurance brokers. But regional rates have now surged, to around 1pc, brokers say, which is equivalent to around $1.34mn for a 2mn bl VLCC.

The US strategy does not address the war damage to oil and natural gas production or processing facilities across the Mideast Gulf.

State-owned QatarEnergy on Wednesday declared force majeure following the halt of production of LNG and associated products to its "affected" buyers. The halt at Ras Laffan is a safety measure to prevent onshore LNG storage from overfilling, Taiwan's ministry of economic affairs said.

State-controlled Saudi Aramco's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery was targeted by a drone for a second time in three days on Wednesday, according to the defense ministry.

By Haik Gugarats and Chris Knight

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04/03/26

Cairo says Egypt oil product supply is secure

London, 4 March (Argus) — Egypt has enough oil products to meet domestic demand for a long time, according to a statement by the cabinet office released on 2 March. Egyptian refineries largely run on imported crude from Saudi Arabia, importing an average of 770,000 b/d over the last year according to marine traffic tracking platform Vortexa, although some of these flows are re-exported once entering Egypt . The majority of these flows originated in Red Sea Saudi ports and so do not have to navigate the strait of Hormuz. This could insulate them to some extent from disruption following Iranian attacks targeting Gulf oil production and refining infrastructure . The nation's state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) issued new spot tenders for prompt gasoline and gasoil deliveries on 2 March. The petroleum ministry on 28 February reported it had improved refinery production capabilities and increased domestic reserves of oil products over the past several years. Ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a complete halt since the 28 February when the US and Israeli attacks on Iran begun, falling by 94pc from then to 1 March according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC). Egypt imported 20,000 b/d of Libyan crude and 30,000 b/d of Russian crude in February, according to Vortexa. So far Iranian attacks have focused on countries in the region with active US military bases, of which Egypt has none. To further ensure Egyptian refineries continue to function and serve the domestic market, the Egyptian cabinet says gas supplies will be prioritised for electricity and petroleum products production, as opposed to competing industrial uses. By Leon Wheeler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Hormuz naval escort unlikely in the near-term: SSY

04/03/26

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04/03/26

Hormuz naval escort unlikely in the near-term: SSY

London, 4 March (Argus) — A US plan for its navy to escort ships heading through the strait of Hormuz is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon because the fleet will be occupied with military operations, according to analysts at shipbroker SSY. Traffic through the strait, the world's most critical oil and LNG shipping lane at the mouth of the Mideast Gulf, has almost entirely stopped, with insurers unwilling to cover transit since Iran said it will "burn" any ship that tries to pass. A container ship was struck today in the strait, UKMTO said. US president Donald Trump stated on 3 March that "if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible." Europe is also looking at naval operations in the region, with French president Emmanuel Macron announcing on Tuesday the creation of a coalition to secure traffic through Hormuz. But SSY said the US Navy "has privately told the industry it will lack escort capacity until the initial stage of the military operation is complete. An additional issue is that US law does not allow the country's navy to escort ships that are not US-flagged or -owned, or have no US crew, the firm said. In addition to the legal issues, SSY pointed to the difficulty of actually protecting shipping in the strait. "Physical geography favours the attacker," it said. "[Shipping] lanes are 2 [nautical miles] wide each direction; vessels transit at 10–12 knots and must turn at the narrowest point adjacent to Iranian islands. "A destroyer can intercept missiles but cannot simultaneously sweep mines, counter drone-boat swarms from multiple bearings, and manage GPS disruption," SSY said. The firm pointed to recent US operations in the Red Sea at the height of attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants, where "escorts failed to restore commercial traffic despite ~400 drones/missiles downed". But, SSY said, pressure to restore normality is greater this time, which could lead to a significantly different military strategy. By John Ollett and Andrey Telegin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iraq cuts crude output following Hormuz disruption

04/03/26

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04/03/26

Iraq cuts crude output following Hormuz disruption

London, 4 March (Argus) — Iraq has started to cut crude production after exports through the strait of Hormuz were effectively halted by the war in the Middle East, the oil ministry said. Tanker traffic through the strait — the main route for Mideast Gulf crude exports — has almost come to a standstill since the US and Israel began attacking Iran on 28 February. Tehran has responded with missile and drone attacks across the region and has threatened shipping, causing freight rates to spike and insurers to remove war-risk cover. A prolonged disruption to exports would threaten most of Iraq's crude output because the country has limited storage capacity. Iraq produced around 4.2mn b/d in January, Argus estimates. Current production levels are unclear. Most of Iraq's crude production is in the south, where around 3.3mn b/d is exported from the Basrah terminals and shipped through the strait of Hormuz to global markets. Northern exports — about 220,000 b/d piped to Turkey's Ceyhan port — were already suspended after pumping through the Iraq–Turkey pipeline stopped earlier this week on security grounds. Iraq has also started shutting in output at its northern fields. The oil ministry said Iraq's refineries remain in operation and sought to reassure citizens that Hormuz disruptions will not affect domestic fuel supply. Iraq supplied around 600,000 b/d of crude to its refineries last month, Argus estimates, plus roughly 100,000 b/d to power plants. Foreign minister Fuad Hussein told his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, that Iraq is now being directly affected by the conflict, citing disruptions to maritime navigation and energy supplies. He said stability in global oil markets has become a regional and international priority. Other Mideast Gulf crude producers also face the prospect of having to shut in output if the Hormuz disruption continues. Kuwait and Qatar rely entirely on the strait to export a combined 2.2mn b/d, according to Kpler. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also rely heavily on the Hormuz route. Both have pipelines that bypass the strait, but these would offset only part of any loss. Saudi Arabia can divert more exports through its 7mn b/d east–west pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, although loading capacity there is limited and the line also supplies refineries on the Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia shipped 5.3mn b/d of crude through Hormuz last year and 750,000 b/d via the Red Sea, Kpler data show. The UAE has the 1.5mn b/d Adcop pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, but this does not fully cover its usual exports. Fujairah itself has also come under attack, which threatens its use as an alternative. The UAE exported 2.1mn b/d through Hormuz last year, according to Kpler. Iran exported 1.7mn b/d of crude in 2025, most of it through Hormuz to China. It has a pipeline to the Jask terminal that bypasses the strait, but this route remains largely untested. By Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Taiwan builds coal stocks to buffer LNG shortfall

04/03/26

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04/03/26

Taiwan builds coal stocks to buffer LNG shortfall

Singapore, 4 March (Argus) — Taiwan is looking to increase thermal coal inventories to prepare for any potential shortfall in LNG supplies because of conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East, while other Asia-Pacific utilities may also look to coal as an alternative if tight LNG supplies cause prices to rise. State-owned Taiwanese utility Taipower's combined 2.1GW units 1-4 at the Hsinta coal-fired plant could be restarted, the country's ministry of economic affairs (MOEA) said on 3 March. The MOEA is working towards avoiding a potential supply shortfall in LNG . Taiwan only has enough secure LNG supplies to meet demand up until the end of March, Taipower said on 3 March. The Hsinta coal-fired power plant was retired in 2023-25 and converted into back-up units that can be restarted for emergency purposes. Taipower's coal burn is likely to rise if these units are restarted. Taipower has already begun stockpiling coal for the Hsinta power plant but resuming coal-fired generation at the plant remains a last resort for the country, a Taipower source told Argus on 4 March. The utility is likely to issue more tenders to increase the plant's coal inventories but is currently reviewing the volumes that would be needed, the source added. Taipower had sought around 960,000t of thermal coal to be delivered in January-March, and another 1.52mn t to be delivered from March-August via tenders issued since October 2025. Taiwan imported 52mn t of thermal coal in 2025, down by 9.4pc compared with 2024, with the decline driven by a drop in coal burn which hit a 24-year low in 2025. Taiwan likely has LNG supplies to meet demand up to the end of March and the MOEA is considering options such as moving up term LNG cargoes and increasing procurement of spot cargoes. Gas-fired output will likely be prioritised before Taiwan will consider restarting the Hsinta power plant. The plant's units may only be dispatched when the country's operating reserve margin falls below 8pc. Any prolonged spike in spot LNG prices could push other utilities in Asia-Pacific to seek alternatives such as coal, although northeast Asia is entering the spring shoulder season when electricity demand typically falls. This could help mitigate the impact the escalating Middle East conflict has on LNG supplies. The northeast Asian shoulder season could provide some time and flexibility for utilities to procure more LNG without having to utilise backup coal-fired units. Taiwan's thermal power output usually weakens during the spring and starts to rise in the summer. Meanwhile, a spike in northeast Asian spot LNG prices is likely to support coal's competitiveness within South Korea's power mix , market participants told Argus on 3 March. South Korea is also entering the spring shoulder season, when overall electricity demand typically eases. But coal-fired output has remained firm on the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Coal-fired output averaged 20.7GW on 3 March, up by 4.8GW from a year earlier, data from Korea Power Exchange show. Softer seasonal demand may limit the immediate effect of higher LNG prices in South Korea, and any shift in coal-fired generation will depend on broader factors, including renewable output and total power demand, market participants said. Japan is also entering the shoulder season for electricity demand at a time when the country's main power utilities are also holding relatively ample LNG stocks , which are above the long-term average for this time of year. LNG inventories at Japan's main utilities stood at 2.19mn t as of 1 March, up by 9.5pc from 2mn t a week earlier, according to a weekly survey by the trade and industry ministry Meti. This represents about 20 days of consumption. Asia-Pacific coal supplies already tight Prolonged disruption to the strait of Hormuz — through which around 20pc of global LNG supply passes — would curb LNG imports to Asia-Pacific and may support coal-fired generation to offset reduced gas-fired output, at a time when Asia-Pacific coal prices have already been driven to multi-month highs because of tight supplies. Argus last assessed Indonesian GAR 5,000 kcal/kg coal at $69.60/t fob Kalimantan on 27 February, up by $1.89/t on the week and the highest since early January 2025. The Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg market for cargoes shipped on Supramax vessels was assessed at $54.31/t fob Kalimantan on 27 February, the highest since June 2024. Australian NAR 5,500 kcal/kg prices were last assessed by Argus at $85.97/t fob Newcastle on 27 February, down slightly on the week, but still higher than $70.62/t at the start of 2026. Coal prices have been driven higher by tight supplies. Producers in Indonesia, the world's largest thermal coal exporter, have faced a series of policy changes in recent months aimed at giving country's energy ministry tighter control over output and prices, which had faced a prolonged downturn since 2022. Jakarta in October 2025 revised the validity period for RKAB output quotas back to one year from three years previously. The changes to the RKAB and delays to producers' receiving their 2026 output quotas, along with weather-related supply disruptions, has tightened supply and pushed up prices. Other recent measures include withholding coal export sales proceeds in onshore bank accounts and tweaking the domestic HBA coal reference price. Jakarta also previously announced plans to introduce a coal export tax. The country's energy ministry initially said 2026 output could be slashed to around 600mn t, sharply lower than the 790mn t it produced in 2025, but later said the final output target has yet to be finalised. The lack of clarity on Indonesian supply this year has led to rising prices and limited offers of coal. Taiwan's power plants depend on Indonesian coal for its low sulphur and ash content that makes it suitable for blending. By Nadhir Mokhtar and Andrew Jones Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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LNG supply crunch from Iran war hits India's downstream

04/03/26

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04/03/26

LNG supply crunch from Iran war hits India's downstream

Mumbai, 4 March (Argus) — An LNG supply crunch due to the ongoing Iran war has dealt a blow to India's industrial gas users and could soon hit other downstream markets like fertilisers, city gas, and power generation — all of which depend on imported LNG to meet over 50pc of their gas needs. Gujarat Gas, India's state-run city gas firm and operator of the ceramic industrial cluster in Gujarat's Morbi, has reduced the volume of daily gas supplied to customers by 50pc over 6-31 March. The firm has informed customers to limit usage and could also suspend gas supply depending on availability, sources told Argus . The state-run Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC), its parent company, has cut industrial gas supply by nearly 70pc. It is currently supplying only to the domestic piped natural gas (PNG) network, which serves residential households and compressed natural gas (CNG) used in vehicles, sources added. Market participants expect the industrial cluster to soon run out of gas supply as the availability of competing fuel propane remains under serious pressure . India may only have up to 10 days of LPG stocks to cover demand and the country is scrambling for cargoes outside of the Mideast Gulf as the Iran-US conflict has effectively dried up exports from the region. The decline in LNG volumes has come amid the backdrop of rapidly depleting stocks of the super-chilled fuel at Indian terminals and storage tanks. India's state-controlled Petronet LNG has issued a force majeure note to its offtakers that include Gail, IOC, and BPCL on 3 March after receiving a "notice indicating a potential event of force majeure" from upstream firm state-controlled QatarEnergy (QE) of its 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan LNG export terminal, it said in a stock exchange filing. Petronet has issued a force majeure notice to QatarEnergy regarding its LNG tankers Disha, Raahi, and Assem, the filing showed. Petronet LNG's tankers cannot safely transit through the strait of Hormuz, and acts of war are excluded under the company's insurance, the firm said. Only one out of Petronet's three captive LNG tankers plying between India and the Middle East, has managed to unload LNG at the 17.5mn t/yr Dahej terminal. The 138,000m³ Raahi unloaded 60,000t of LNG at the Dahej terminal on 1 March, while another vessel the 138,000m³ Disha, carrying a similar volume, has not been able to transit the strait and has been waiting around the Ras Laffan LNG terminal since 28 February. The 155,000m³ Aseem has rerouted away from the strait of Hormuz while it was back on its way to Ras Laffan after unloading LNG at Dahej on 24 February, Vortexa data show. This has left Petronet with only two days of supplies at Dahej, traders said. State-run gas distributor Gail and GSPC issued two tenders seeking March delivery LNG cargoes on 3 March, that were heard to have been not awarded, as offers received were over $25/mn Btu at India's west coast, traders said. Available March deliveries on water remained limited. Argus has so far determined there is about 1.056mn t of LNG loaded onto 13 vessels — but it is trapped in the Mideast Gulf west of Hormuz as of 3 March, according to data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. There are also three empty vessels potentially ready for loading whenever QE's production restarts. Asia is likely to face LNG supply disruptions because of QE's production halt, as well as shipping restrictions in the strait of Hormuz. The Argus -assessed prices for deliveries to west and east India for first-half April rose to $23.3/mn Btu and $23.5/mn Btu, respectively on 4 March, higher by $7.8-7.9/mn Btu from the previous session. Sector-wise usage LNG is a critical component for Indian downstream industries. In 2025, LNG accounted for 80pc of gas demand from the fertiliser sector and for 36pc from city gas usage, oil ministry data show. [ See graph- Gas Usage in 2025 ] LNG usage in India's power sector was at 30pc, at refineries 75pc, and for petrochemicals at 54pc in 2025, the same data show. There has been an increase in reliance on imported LNG at Indian downstream units over the last two years as domestic gas production in the country has also dwindled to 34.7bn m3 in 2025, down by 3pc on the year, oil ministry data show. India's fertiliser plants were earlier told about limited supplies and offered take-or-pay contracts on 3 March. The take-or-pay contracts require buyers to either accept goods or pay a penalty, ensuring risk-sharing between suppliers and buyers. But intervention by some officials have now restored supplies, industry executives said. An interruption in urea production is likely to trickle down to the farming community — a politically sensitive group. The city gas firms would be prioritised over industrial supply because domestic PNG and CNG are essential sectors, the sources added. LNG supplies to petrochemical plants may decrease as they scale back operations, while refineries may turn to other sources. For the power sector, India's gas-fired power plants may also limit generation soon if they fail to receive LNG supplies. But this may have limited impact on overall power demand as gas accounts for less than 4pc of India's power generation. India's coal-fired generation averaged just over 149GW in January, representing over 86pc of aggregate generation from non-renewable and large hydro sources, while gas-fired generation averaged just 2.43GW, the latest Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data show. India's lack of investments in its LNG and LPG storage infrastructure have become increasingly apparent as the crisis in the Middle East unfolds. By Rituparna Ghosh LNG disruptions hit Indian downstream markets LNG disruptions hit Indian downstream markets Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US to roll out oil market calming measures

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Cairo says Egypt oil product supply is secure

Cairo says Egypt oil product supply is secure

Hormuz naval escort unlikely in the near-term: SSY

Hormuz naval escort unlikely in the near-term: SSY

Iraq cuts crude output following Hormuz disruption

Iraq cuts crude output following Hormuz disruption

Taiwan builds coal stocks to buffer LNG shortfall

Taiwan builds coal stocks to buffer LNG shortfall

LNG supply crunch from Iran war hits India's downstream

LNG supply crunch from Iran war hits India's downstream

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