The US-Iran war is causing unprecedented risk to Australia's fertilizer supply in a period of peak demand, market sources said, highlighting the country's reliance on urea imports from the Persian Gulf since the closure of domestic manufacturers earlier this decade.
Australia imported 64pc of its urea from the gulf in 2025, trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show.
Current domestic urea supplies will last until mid-April, but Australia will need additional imports beyond that, multiple suppliers told Argus, as they turn to alternative sources including southeast Asia and Oman. Oman's 2.1mn t/yr Omifco plant remains operational, but it is unclear whether its 1.2mn t/yr SIUCI plant is still operating. Supply from Oman is limited, but vessels were still loading as of 3 March.
Australia imported 1.2mn t of urea from southeast Asia in 2025, representing around 32pc of the country's total imports, ABS data show. Most southeast Asian producers are sold out for March, and vessels typically take 2-3 weeks to reach Australia's east coast.
A total of 118,900t of urea is currently in transit to Australia from Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia across four vessels, vessel tracking data from Kpler show. Another 165,100t of urea is in transit from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Australian growers had been holding off on considerable urea purchases because of dry conditions in most of eastern Australia. Growers now requesting volumes are facing limited offers, according to a market participant. A prolonged war blocking urea exports from the Persian Gulf or leading to higher prices from alternate suppliers could moderate top dressing applications and downgrade Australia's crop quality and quantity.
Domestic delivered urea prices have risen consistently since the conflict began on 28 February. Offers are currently above A$1,000/t free carrier (fca) Geelong and Argus last assessed granular urea at A$830-840/t fca Geelong on 26 February.
Domestic demand for granular urea peaks in April-June for pre-seeding and top-dressing applications on winter crops such as canola, barley and wheat. Without sufficient urea, growers are looking for alternative nitrogen sources including ammonium sulphate (amsul). Domestic amsul prices were last reported at A$480/t fca Geelong and suppliers are reporting low stocks after a rush of demand from growers. Australia imported 575,400t of amsul from China in 2025, accounting for 99pc of its total imports, ABS data show.
Australia became dependent on urea imports in 2022 when Dyno Nobel closed its 499,000 t/yr Gibson Island facility.
