News
14/04/26
Europe replacing just 50pc of lost Mideast jet: IEA
London, 14 April (Argus) — Europe has replaced just over half of the jet fuel
supply lost from the Middle East following the US-Iran war and the closure of
the strait of Hormuz, leaving the region exposed to possible shortages in the
coming months, the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report. Current
supply trends indicate that jet fuel shortages could emerge at European airports
by June. OECD Europe jet fuel inventories typically decline from 37-38 days of
forward demand at the start of the year to around 30 days by mid-year, the IEA
said. Since 2020, stocks have not averaged below 29 days of cover. The IEA
assumes that around 20pc of jet fuel inventories act as an operational cushion
that cannot be readily drawn down without disrupting supply systems. On that
basis, physical shortages could emerge if inventory cover falls to below 23
days, it said. Airports association ACI Europe warned the European Commission
last week that fuel shortages could become a reality within just three weeks.
Some European countries hold as little as 20 days of jet fuel inventory, it
said. Both ACI Europe and the IEA cautioned that shortages could lead to flight
cancellations and demand destruction. The Mideast Gulf typically accounts for a
net 75pc of Europe's jet fuel imports. Europe has increased purchases from the
US to help offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply. US jet fuel exports reached
a record 442,000 b/d in the week to 3 April, according to the US EIA. Three jet
fuel cargoes from Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery are also currently en
route to Europe, according to Kpler data. But these additional volumes account
for just over 50pc of lost Middle Eastern supply at most. "European markets will
need to work harder to attract further replacement cargoes from elsewhere if
sufficient inventory is to be maintained over the summer months," the IEA said.
If Europe replaces around 75pc of lost supply, it should be able to meet peak
summer jet fuel demand, although inventories would still fall below the 23-day
cover threshold by August, the agency said. Even replacing 90pc of lost volumes
would leave the market tightly supplied, with stocks ending 2026 at just 26 days
of cover. The UK is the European country most exposed to the disruption ,
importing around 65pc of its jet fuel demand, according to the IEA. No further
jet fuel cargoes heading for Europe have passed through the strait of Hormuz,
which normally accounts for around 40pc of the region's jet fuel imports. The
final such cargoes discharged last week. Even if the strait were to reopen
immediately, crude and product exports would take several months to stabilise ,
the IEA said. Jet fuel shipments from the US to Europe totalled 366,000t in
March, according to Kpler. Imports from the US are set to exceed 450,000t in
April — almost double the previous monthly record — based on preliminary data.
Independent jet fuel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to a
three-year low of 646,000t as of 8 April, down 28pc from a year earlier,
according to consultancy Insights Global. The IEA expects global jet fuel output
to fall by around 500,000 b/d in the second quarter, as Middle Eastern supply
losses combine with refinery run cuts elsewhere caused by tighter crude
availability. By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at
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