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Latest market news

EIA expects WTI to average nearly $85/bl in 2Q

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 10/03/26

The US light sweet crude benchmark will average nearly $85/bl in the second quarter this year because of fighting in the Middle East, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted today.

WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $84.56/bl across April-June, the agency said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), a $30.91/bl upward revision from its February forecast.

Crude prices have surged from about $65/bl in late-February to nearly $120/bl on 9 March as the US-Israel war with Iran has choked off flows through the strait of Hormuz. Prices on Tuesday eased to near $83/bl, after US president Donald Trump said the war was practically over.

WTI will average $73.61/bl across 2026, EIA predicts, up from $53.42/bl forecast in last month's STEO.

EIA similarly revised Brent prices higher, forecasting the global benchmark to average $90.56/bl in the second quarter before falling to $70/bl by the end of the year. The agency expects Brent will average $78.84/bl across the full year.

By Brett Holmes

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10/03/26

Hormuz naval escort claim pushes oil futures lower

Hormuz naval escort claim pushes oil futures lower

Washington, 10 March (Argus) — US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell sharply in Tuesday afternoon trading after US energy secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the strait of Hormuz. Wright deleted the post shortly thereafter. WTI prompt contract was around $81/bl at 1:40pm ET, down by 14pc from Monday's settlement price. The US Department of Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Dan Caine said earlier on Tuesday that the US military is only starting to assess the feasibility of providing naval escorts for the oil and LNG tankers through the Mideast Gulf and the strait of Hormuz. "We'll look at the range of options to set the military conditions to be able to do that," Caine said at a Pentagon briefing. The military commanders will then present their conclusions to President Donald Trump and defense secretary Pete Hegseth "with both what are the resources required, what is the command and control required, and what are the risks and how do we mitigate those risks," Caine said. Tanker shipowners speaking on a panel at a shipping forum in New York on Monday unanimously agreed that they would not be comfortable with their vessels transiting the strait of Hormuz given the region's security risk. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US-Iran war: Latest news

10/03/26
News
10/03/26

US-Iran war: Latest news

Houston, 10 March (Argus) — A round-up of the latest Argus news stories focusing on the US-Iran conflict. TOP HEADLINES Drone attack causes fire at Adnoc's Ruwais complex Abu Dhabi fights fire at Ruwais complex Iran sends laden crude tanker through Hormuz strait UAE's Adnoc to divert some Murban loadings Russia ready to supply energy to Europe: Putin Tanker owners rule out quick return to Hormuz Aramco says prolonged Hormuz halt would be catastrophic G7 confirms no emergency oil supply release Democrats urge Trump to release SPR crude Houthi attacks 'likely a case of when not if': Analyst WTI falls by 12pc as market weighs Trump comments Trafigura agrees $3bn facility as 'volatility buffer' No EU ETS suspension or oil stocks release: Commission EIA expects WTI to average nearly $85/bl in 2Q LATEST NEWS Crude and oil products Oil industry seeks EU methane regulation pause German crude supply risk limited from Mideast war Crude futures: Ice Brent falls below $92/bl NWE gasoline backwardation narrows, discounts widen Mexico's Pemex hikes wholesale diesel prices LNG and natural gas TTF front-month drops by 13pc from Monday's close US gas prices unlikely to jump on US-Iran war Fertilizers Iranian granular urea bid at $460/t fob, no sale Asian naphtha spot trade at 20-year high premiums India cuts gas supply to 70pc for fertilizer production Urea Middle East derivatives offered lower: Update Petrochemicals QatarEnergy declares force majeure across PE, PP, PVC Europe benzene above $1,100/t in volatile trading Chlor-alkali producer Sulfindo declares force majeure LyondellBasell Europe issues force majeure for PE, PP Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Aramco readies for restart refinery targeted by drones

10/03/26
News
10/03/26

Aramco readies for restart refinery targeted by drones

Dubai, 10 March (Argus) — Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery, Ras Tanura, is being readied for start-up after it was shut around a week ago following an Iranian drone strike, state-controlled Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser said on Tuesday. The 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery was targeted by Iranian drones twice in three days ꟷ once on 2 March, and then on 4 March. The refinery was taken offline after the first attack, as "a precautionary measure", Nasser said. The energy ministry at the time said the facility had sustained "limited damage" after "debris from the interception of two drones in the vicinity" fell on it. Supply of products to markets was unaffected, it said. "We have a clear procedure to ensure safe operation, and we are in the process of starting it back up," Nasser said today. He did not say how soon it would be back online. Ras Tanura accounts for around 16pc of Saudi Arabia's 3.4mn b/d of crude refining capacity. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Oil industry seeks EU methane regulation pause

10/03/26
News
10/03/26

Oil industry seeks EU methane regulation pause

Brussels, 10 March (Argus) — EU refiners and fossil fuel importers called for the application of the bloc's methane emissions regulation to be paused pending amendments. With no changes, the EU risks a self-inflicted supply shock equivalent to 2022 disruptions, with up to 43pc, or 114bn m³, of the bloc's 2024 gas imports and 87pc of its crude oil imports, or some 9.8mn b/d based on 2024 volumes, at risk of being non-compliant in 2027–2029, oil and gas producer body IOGP said. The EU cannot afford a regulatory supply shock in the current geopolitical context, said refiners body FuelsEurope and IOGP. The EU methane regulation entered into force in 2024 but has requirements for importers of crude oil, natural gas and coal on reporting methane emissions from 2027, for contracts concluded or renewed after 4 August 2024. Presenting a study commissioned from Wood Mackenzie, FuelsEurope and IOGP warned that no exporting country has been recognised as equivalent with EU monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) standards, required from January 2027. Only some 7pc of global oil and gas production meets the reporting standards required by the methane regulation. Additionally, the study points to the lack of a recognized third-party verification protocol and accredited verifiers. Wood Mackenzie finds that EU refinery throughput could fall by some 50pc, or 4.6mn b/d in 2027–2030 as a result of insufficient compliant crude, equivalent to closing 40 EU refineries. Impacts would be less severe under an adaptive scenario, with greater flexibility in granting country-level MRV equivalence, according to Wood Mackenzie. But 20pc, 53bn m³, of natural gas imports and 38pc, 4.3mn b/d, of crude oil imports into the EU, in 2024 volumes, could still be excluded. EU energy ministers discussed their implementation concerns in December last year. The European Commission then noted that the methane regulation requires member states not to "endanger" security of supply when applying penalties. The commission said the methane regulation is open to different compliance solutions. Importers can show compliance through contractual evidence as well as methane MRV information, the commission told energy ministers. The study indicated that Europe's fuel import bill could rise by more than $17bn annually under the regulation. But it noted that while gas prices risk being over twice as high, they still fall "well short" of average prices in 2022 at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. "We're not asking for five or ten years," said IOGP Europe managing director Francois-Regis Mouton. The industry wants time for discussion and for the EU to vote an amended regulation that can be implemented. "We don't need tens of changes in the regulation," added Mouton. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Aramco says prolonged Hormuz halt would be catastrophic

10/03/26
News
10/03/26

Aramco says prolonged Hormuz halt would be catastrophic

Dubai, 10 March (Argus) — The global oil market and wider economy will face "catastrophic consequences" if crude flows through the strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said today. The war in the Middle East — triggered by joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February — has brought traffic through the strait to a near halt, trapping cargoes loaded from ports inside the Mideast Gulf and cutting some of the world's biggest oil producers off from their main export route. This disruption, combined with rapidly filling storage, has already forced several key Opec+ producers to curb output . As of 9 March, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq had reduced their collective crude output by 6.2mn-6.9mn b/d, according to Argus calculations based on February production levels. "The disruption has caused a severe chain reaction, not only in shipping and insurance, but there is also a drastic domino effect on aviation, agriculture, the automotive and other industries," Nasser said. "The longer this disruption goes on, the more drastic the consequences for the global economy." Saudi Arabia has begun cutting production by shutting several offshore fields in response to security threats from Iranian missile and drone attacks on Mideast Gulf energy infrastructure, sources with knowledge of the matter told Argus. Aramco has closed the Safaniya, Marjan, Zuluf and Abu Safa fields, the sources said, resulting in an estimated reduction of 2mn-2.5mn b/d. Nasser did not confirm those figures or identify the fields. He said only that the company was using its 7mn b/d East-West pipeline to move crude to Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast for export, providing an alternative outlet that avoids the strait of Hormuz. "We are putting mainly Arab Light and some extra light to the western region. Certain areas where we have medium and heavy we are not utilising for the time being because we have adequate capacity to meet our requirements," Nasser said. Safaniya produces Arab Heavy, while Zuluf, Marjan and Abu Safa produce Arab Medium. Aramco is also using its storage capacity, both inside and outside the kingdom, to help supply customers. "We are meeting the majority of our customer requirements," Nasser said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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