US doubling down on oil during crisis

Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
25/03/26

Faced with the greatest disruption to global oil and gas supply in history, President Donald Trump's administration is doubling down on support for fossil fuels and criticism of the energy transition.

Energy transition policies under Trump's predecessor Joe Biden were actually "energy subtraction", interior secretary Doug Burgum told CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston on Wednesday. "We need energy addition."

Trump's policies "means unleashing all of you", said Burgum to the gathered energy industry crowd. "It means cutting red tape. It means lowering taxes, getting rid of crazy regulations that are not saving the planet. They're just impeding and hurting certain forms of energy."

Burgum made his first appearance at CERAWeek on 23 March to celebrate a deal forcing TotalEnergies to drop plans for offshore wind farms along the US east coast and invest in oil and natural gas production instead. Burgum that day justified the administration's opposition to offshore wind farms by their supposed national security risks highlighted during the war in Iran — the wind turbines are so large that they could mask enemy drones attacking the US mainland, Burgum claimed.

On Wednesday, Burgum denounced his Democratic predecessors for "weaponization of regulation to try to drive this climate fantasy about transition".

What crisis?

Speaker after speaker at CERAWeek discussed impacts from the Mideast Gulf crisis, which cut off roughly 20mn b/d of oil from global supply since the start of the war. Executives from Kuwait and the UAE issued particularly dire warnings about grave consequences from Iran's continued control of the strait of Hormuz.

Burgum on Wednesday responded to those concerns by suggesting that a peaceful resolution to the war was imminent.

"We are hearing the reports, publicly reported, that there is a dialogue going on" with Iran, Burgum said. "I think that people are encouraged about that".

Trump said on 23 March that his administration was talking to as-yet unidentified Iranians, and on Tuesday, he said that those Iranians had sent him a "significant prize" related to "oil and gas" that is connected to flows through the strait of Hormuz.

Iranian leaders, including parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have since denied any negotiations with the US are taking place. Tehran highlighted its control of the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday by saying it will allow some "non-hostile" vessels to pass through the waterway, if they comply with regulations.

The US military action against Iran was necessary to make the world safer by "lowering the risk premium that I think was missing from the market, because maybe the market wasn't recognizing the risk," Burgum said.

Burgum likely was referencing a research paper the White House circulated on 17 March that argued that Iran's ability to affect the flow of energy commodities from the Mideast Gulf added up to $15/bl to global oil prices above the fundamental values. The paper at the same time argued that the premium was "not structurally embedded in oil markets" because market participants had failed to appreciate that geopolitical risk.

By Haik Gugarats

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25/03/26

Iran rejects US proposal for peace talks: state media

Dubai, 25 March (Argus) — Iran has rejected a US proposal that was due to form the basis for negotiations later this week aimed at ending the war, according to Iranian state news agency Press TV. An unnamed senior security official told the outlet that the US proposal was both "excessive" in its demands and "deceptive", drawing parallels with two previous rounds of talks in which Israel and the US attacked Iran mid-negotiation. In both cases, the US had "no genuine intention" of engaging in meaningful dialogue, the official said, referring to talks in June 2025 and February 2026. The US proposal was delivered to Tehran by a friendly regional intermediary, Press TV said. This followed US president Donald Trump's claim on Monday that his administration had held positive conversations with unidentified Iranians. A day later, Trump said those same Iranians had sent him a "significant prize" related to "oil and gas" and to flows through the strait of Hormuz. Several Iranian officials have since denied that any negotiations have taken place with Washington since the war began on 28 February. Iran's foreign ministry also denied that talks had occurred, but confirmed that Tehran had received messages "from some friendly countries regarding the US demand for negotiations to end the war". The war will end "when Iran decides to do so, and when its own conditions are met", the Iranian security official told Press TV. Iran will continue to inflict "heavy blows" on its enemies until those demands are met, they said. Press TV gave no detail on what the US "excessive" demands involved, but listed five Iranian conditions for ending the war. These include a "complete halt to aggression and assassinations by the enemy", the creation of "concrete mechanisms" to prevent conflict being reimposed on Iran, and a "guaranteed and clearly defined" structure for paying war damages and reparations. Iran also called for the cessation of attacks on all "resistance groups" in the region — including Lebanon's Hezbollah, Gaza-based Hamas and Yemen's Houthi movement — and for acceptance of Iran's continued sovereignty over the strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire is contingent on Washington accepting all of Iran's conditions, the official said. "No negotiations will be held prior to that. The end of the war will occur when Iran decides it should end, not when Trump envisions its conclusion." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Planning key to push climate action: Cop 30 president

25/03/26

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25/03/26

Planning key to push climate action: Cop 30 president

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — Roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuel transition and end deforestation for the next round of UN talks will support moving from consensus to action in global climate efforts, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said. The Cop 30 presidency's pledge to create two roadmaps towards phasing out fossil fuels and ending deforestation "will be very much instruments to stimulate implementation," Correa do Lago said on Tuesday at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. The Cop 30 presidency last month opened a public call for countries to submit proposals for its two roadmaps by 31 March to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat. Technical documents for the roadmaps are planned to be ready by October. Correa do Lago emphasized the importance of action and implementation over trying to achieve consensus, given the urgency presented by climate change. While designing Cop 30 last year, "we tried to — taking into consideration, obviously, the limits of the Cop — to preserve the best of [the Paris Agreement] … but also open the door to the actors that are essential for the implementation," he said. In particular, it is important to expand the dialogue beyond the public sector and towards private entities, which typically are not privy to the negotiations that occur during Cop, but will be key players in implementing the terms that are ultimately agreed upon, he said. "I think that this expansion of the theme of climate is essential for us to continue this agenda. We cannot continue to work in a silo in which only a few people can talk about climate," Correa do Lago said. That sentiment was echoed by Sasha Mackler, senior vice president and global head of strategic policy at ExxonMobil. Meeting electricity demand, which is projected to surge due to growth in data center capacity and increasing electrification, while also achieving reductions in emissions will be a major challenge in the future, he said. The oil and gas industry's role in transitioning away from fossil fuels "could be quite significant because we know that for the foreseeable future, oil and gas will be with us," Mackler said. "The world has an enormous appetite for energy, and that appetite will continue to grow over time." In addition, the roadmaps are "super important to give us the means to explore" ways to solve the technological challenges arising from transitioning away from fossil fuels as well as scaling the deployment of clean technology, said Benoit Faraco, France's ambassador for climate. "When you look at the global picture, there is a very strong appetite for this kind of conversation, including with a lot of emerging economies that are definitely wanting to move in this position," he said. The US retreat from its leadership on climate policy will likely cast a shadow over the upcoming Cop 31 climate summit. President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement formally took effect in January , and soon after he called for an exit from the UNFCCC. This could pave the way for China to take a larger role in global climate conversations. The country has recently made "pretty substantial pledges" to lower emissions, according to Joseph Majkut, director of the energy security and climate change program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Still, "China's position as a leader is also kind of tenuous" since, despite being a leader in renewable energy and electric vehicles, it is "still a receiver of climate finance overall," Majkut said during a separate panel at CERAWeek. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mideast war renews focus on energy security, transition

25/03/26

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25/03/26

Mideast war renews focus on energy security, transition

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — The depth of the war-driven Mideast Gulf oil and gas disruption and its undetermined length has prompted renewed discussion of energy security and transition in the industry, but familiar challenges remain. The argument in favor of fossil fuels has been "that they're portable and storable," investment firm Carlyle's chief strategy officer of energy pathways Jeff Currie said at CERAWeek by S&P Global on Tuesday. "That also makes them incredibly dangerous, as we're witnessing right now in the strait of Hormuz." "One of the biggest predictions you can make out of what's currently happening is (that) it's going to turbo charge the energy transition into any fuel you want to be local, distributed and not vulnerable to other parts of the world," Currie said. Lessons from the ongoing crisis may also apply to legacy energy systems, BP chief economist Gareth Ramsay said. "We have built a wonderful oil market, which is ... incredibly efficient, but efficiency is sometimes also fragility," Ramsay said. "Will countries now ask again, 'do we need our own refining capacity? Do we need to keep our refineries online now, even if they're uneconomic, even if they're costly?'" Bigger than the '70s The magnitude of the current crisis appears to be greater than even the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which has prompted a decades-long shift in energy policies globally, Ramsay said. "There is no potential for immediate supply response," he said. Even limited attacks by Yemen's Houthis on commercial shipping through the Red sea in 2023-24 have cut flows through the Suez canal by around 50pc, Currie said. Applying the same metric to the Mideast Gulf "means you could lose between 5-10mn b/d... which will have a significant impact and be similar to the 1970s," he said. The magnitude of Mideast Gulf supply loss and price-driven demand destruction may be apparent but its duration is not, ConocoPhillips chief economist Helen Currie said. "Is this a short term drop in demand in response to higher prices and limited availability of supplies, and therefore that demand may come back by the fourth quarter or in the 2027?", she said. "It's that duration question that we're really grappling with." Long term impacts of the crisis could prompt OECD countries to significantly increase their minimum emergency oil inventory requirements, trading house Gunvor global head of research and analysis Frederic Lasserre said. The crisis also could prompt a renewed push toward energy transition, "particularly electrification", but policy decisions cannot be delayed, he said. "We have 25 years to get to 2050, and that's only one investment cycle. So we have to decide now what we do, because it's either refineries or nuclear power plants, not both." North America remains crude President Donald Trump's administration says it will stick to the course of prioritizing oil and gas development regardless of how the Mideast Gulf energy crisis evolves. Interior secretary Doug Burgum at the start of CERAWeek on 22 March touted an agreement with TotalEnergies to drop plans for offshore wind farms along the US east coast and invest in oil and natural gas production instead. The US, Canada and Mexico collectively account for 30pc of global oil output "... and we need to continue to grow that base here in North America, so that we're not as dependent on" the strait of Hormuz, industry group American Petroleum Institute president Mike Sommers said on Tuesday. Russia's war in Ukraine and the subsequent reorientation of Russian oil and gas flows in 2022 already prompted policymakers globally to try to square the issue of energy security, affordability and sustainability. The current crisis is likely to prompt similar discussions but outcomes once again are not guaranteed, Ramsay said. "To suffer a major energy supply shock once might be regarded as misfortune; to suffer a major energy shock twice begins to look like carelessness," he said, paraphrasing Oscar Wilde's The Importance of Being Earnest . "This kind of shock, the second one in four years to energy supply, is going to have major implications for our retirement system, and it's going to have implications for the oil market," Ramsay said. "This is not going to go away (if) the conflict ends today." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Behind-the-meter buildouts hurt grid: AWS, Dominion

24/03/26

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24/03/26

Behind-the-meter buildouts hurt grid: AWS, Dominion

Houston, 24 March (Argus) — The surge in behind-the-meter (BTM) power generation reflects a grid and interconnection system failing to keep pace with demand and stands in the way of efforts needed to rehaul the grid, industry speakers told a panel today. "If you look at a lot of the development that's happening now, more and more of it's going behind the meter, and that's a bad outcome for the industry," Amazon Web Service (AWS) vice president Kerry Person told a panel at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, Texas. "Players are taking energy generation into their own hands because the system is not keeping up." As demand for artificial intelligence (AI) surges, more data-center developers are building their own on-site generation rather than relying on the grid because they cannot get connected fast enough through the traditional interconnection process. The private power plants risk locking in expensive, high-emissions infrastructure instead of pushing investment into proper grid upgrades, renewables, and demand-response initiatives, panelists said. "Grid-connected is always better," said Dominion Energy Virginia president Ed Baine. "It's better for the customer who was thinking about building on-site generation. It's better for the collective customers on the grid." The shift toward self-supply makes it harder for utilities to implement demand-response mechanisms that several panelists described as one of the best potential tools for easing grid stress. Data centers rarely run their facilities at full peak load, meaning they could reduce consumption or switch to backup resources when the grid is strained. Demand-response measures only work if loads are integrated into the system and visible to operators. While the technology exists to enable such coordination, today's market rules do not incentivize data centers and other large consumers to curtail load. Additionally, regulations tightly control when operators can use their own generating equipment and do not allow them to determine when to switch to back-up, making many of them unwilling to reduce their load. If the wealthiest companies decide to go on their own and build private power plants, it undermines a collective push for regulatory overhauls that could improve efficiencies. These private power plants are meant to be temporary "bridge" solutions, but once these BTM, fossil fuel-fed plants have permits and sunk costs, they risk becoming permanent and intensifying a growing community backlash against data center development, said Schneider Electric president Aamir Paul. Of the 40GW of BTM power projects that Schneider Electric is tracking, 80pc of them say they intend to connect to the grid and 20pc are saying they will remain off-grid. BTM solutions have included natural gas turbines, diesel generators and even repurposed aircraft engines, said Paul. "You know people aren't going to be excited about that, right?" said Paul, noting that these alternatives could further stoke public outcry from local residents. "The islanded-forever, fossil-fuel intensive solution is not practical or good." By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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London rejects calls to boost North Sea gas, oil output

24/03/26

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24/03/26

London rejects calls to boost North Sea gas, oil output

London, 24 March (Argus) — The UK government has rebuked calls from energy industry group Offshore Energy UK (OEUK) to increase domestic oil and gas production. "Issuing new licences to explore new fields cannot give us energy security and will not take a penny off bills," a government spokesperson told Argus on 24 March in response to calls in the press from OEUK and several energy firms to increase North Sea gas and oil output. "The only way to truly protect ourselves from these price spikes is to get off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel markets," the spokesperson added. OEUK released a new report on Tuesday showing that the UK could almost double the amount of gas and oil it produces through to 2050 with changes to tax and regulations, adding 3.7bn bl of oil equivalent (boe) to current projections for production from the UK continental shelf. This is on top of the 3.8mn boe over the 2025-50 period the UK is currently on track to recover, the industry organisation noted. Oil and gas production has declined by around 75pc between 1999 and 2024, department for energy security and net zero (Desnz) data shows. "Without more domestic production, the UK risks becoming increasingly reliant on energy imports at a time of rising global instability," the industry group said. "Maintaining domestic supply is therefore essential for energy security, affordability and reliability." The government is taking pragmatic steps that will ensure existing oil and gas production continues as an essential part of the UK energy mix for decades to come, while actively scaling up clean energy industries in the North Sea, the government said. The government added that issuing new licences to explore fresh fields would make no difference to the UK's current domestic energy output, as such projects typically take up to a decade to develop. GBE chair turns against increased output The chair of state-owned Great British Energy Juergen Maier changed his stance, moving to oppose calls for increased production on Tuesday, from a supportive position earlier in the week. "I am fully supportive of the government position, which is to use existing fields and tiebacks for their lifetime and not to support exploration licences for new fields," Maier said in a post on social media platform LinkedIn on Tuesday. "The end game is renewables and that we need to give supply chain companies enough time to transition," he added. Maier had presented a list of arguments supporting more oil and gas production in the North Sea on 19 March, suggesting he supported this approach. GBE was established in 2025 by the UK government to accelerate renewable energy development, enhance energy security, and support the nation's transition to clean power. Funded with £8.3bn ($11.1bn) over the current parliamentary term, GBE operates as an investment vehicle, development specialist, and project accelerator across the UK's clean energy sectors. By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US doubling down on oil during crisis

What crisis?

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