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Opec trims 2026 oil demand growth again

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 11/06/26

Opec has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth for a second consecutive month.

Demand is now projected to increase by 970,000 b/d in 2026, the group said today in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), down from its previous forecast of 1.17mn b/d.

Opec does not give explicit reasons for the downgrade. But a 60,000 b/d cut to Indian demand growth and a projected 40,000 b/d fall in Middle East consumption are among the contributors.

Opec estimates Middle East demand in March — the first month of the Iran war — was about 500,000 b/d lower than a year earlier. The report makes few direct references to the conflict but flags "downside risk" to regional demand "from the ongoing oil market situation", which it said will depend on "the duration and severity of the disruption".

Opec expects a strong rebound in global oil demand next year, supported by higher growth forecasts for China and India. It projects demand to rise by 1.73mn b/d in 2027, up from 1.54mn b/d in last month's MOMR.

Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast at 630,000 b/d for this year and 620,000 b/d for 2027. It does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. These show Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — fell by 185,000 b/d on the month to 33.13mn b/d in May.

By James Keates

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11/06/26

Trump escalates threats against Iran

Trump escalates threats against Iran

Washington, 11 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Thursday stepped up threats against Tehran following two days of heavy clashes between the US and Iranian armed forces and of attacks on shipping in the Middle East. "The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT," Trump said in a social media post. The low intensity clashes between the US and Iranian militaries that have been underway since late May escalated into an exchange of strikes on 10-11 June that are more reminiscent of the active phase of war in March-April. The US has pounded Iran's defensive and — according to Tehran — civilian infrastructure near the strait of Hormuz and across Iran. Iran's military has responded with attacks on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Both the US and Iranian navies have attacked commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the strait of Hormuz, respectively. Control of navigation through the critical Mideast Gulf waterway appears to be the cause of the latest flare up. Trump claimed on Wednesday that the US military had been running a clandestine operation to unblock Hormuz and that over 100mn bl and hundreds of vessels traveled the strait under the US military umbrella. Iran, which also claimed to be directing limited traffic through the strait, said on Thursday that the strait of Hormuz is "closed" following overnight US strikes on Iran. Trump, in his social media post on Thursday, went on to say that the US would soon take control of Iran's Kharg Island in the Mideast Gulf "and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela". By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US escalates attacks on Iran: Update 2

10/06/26
News
10/06/26

US escalates attacks on Iran: Update 2

Updates with details throughout, including the start of the attacks London, 10 June (Argus) — The US launched a new, broader wave of attacks on Iranian targets for the second consecutive day, prompting Tehran to say it will prevent all ships from passing through Hormuz in retaliation. US forces began launching additional "self-defense" strikes at targets across Iran at 5:15pm ET (21:15 GMT) on Wednesday, said the US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces. Trump previewed the attack by saying earlier in the day that Iran will "have to pay the price" for taking too long to reach a peace deal, marking a clear shift in tone from recent weeks when he had talked up progress towards an agreement. The latest US attack followed an exchange of fire between the US and Iranian forces a day earlier, which involved US strikes against Iranian air defense targets around the strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. The flare up in the US-Iran conflict follows claims by Washington and Tehran that they are enabling the transit of tankers and other vessels through the strait of Hormuz, on their own terms. The Iranian military declared Hormuz closed to all navigation following the latest US attack, Iranian news agency Tasnim, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in the early hours Thursday Tehran time. "We're going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard," Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday before Centcom launched the latest attack. "Based on the helicopter, I guess we have the right to do that," Trump said, referring to a US helicopter patrolling the strait of Hormuz that went down due to Iranian fire earlier this week . The attacks "that will happen tonight will be strong and they will be clear", defense secretary Pete Hegseth said before the strikes commenced. July Nymex WTI rose by $1.83/bl to $90.03/bl on Wednesday while August Ice Brent rose by $1.65/bl to $93.10/bl, following the flare up in the US-Iran confrontation. Trump earlier on Wednesday told Fox News that he "may order new strikes against the Iranian regime", potentially targeting "Iranian power plants and bridges", according to the news network's account of the interview, which the White House confirmed. Trump repeatedly threatened strikes against Iranian power and civilian infrastructure during the high intensity phase of the conflict in March and April. The US and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement on 8 April and extended it indefinitely later that month. But low-intensity fighting between US and Iranian forces has flared up repeatedly since late May. Trump's remarks mark a clear break from his recent messaging. Earlier this week, Trump said negotiations with Iran were ongoing and could yield results within days. Trump claimed for months that Iran's military capacity had been "obliterated", but he attributed Iran's apparent ability to target US military bases and equipment in the Middle East to Tehran's partial restoration of its defense capabilities. He added that recent US strikes "took out about 55pc of what they were even able to rebuild." By Haik Gugarats and James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz

10/06/26
News
10/06/26

Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz

Dubai, 10 June (Argus) — Kuwait's state-owned KPC is exploring potential tie-ups with fellow Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries Saudi Arabia and the UAE that could help move its crude and oil products in the event of any future disruptions to flows through the strait of Hormuz. Kuwait is totally dependent on the strait to export its crude and oil products, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that allow them to divert a share of their oil to ports outside the strait. That has helped them better navigate the more than three-month closure of Hormuz triggered by the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February. "We are in discussions with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and in the Emirates to look at how to expand the pipeline system that they have to accommodate Kuwaiti barrels coming up," KPC chief executive Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum. Saudi Arabia's 7mn b/d capacity East-West pipeline can carry crude from the Abqaiq oil processing complex in the Eastern Province to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea for export. The UAE's 1.7mn b/d Adcop pipeline carries crude from Habshan in Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, outside the strait of Hormuz. Sheikh Nawaf said the GCC typically has a mechanism that if one member cannot export oil for whatever reason, another with additional capacity could export on their behalf "and tally it up afterwards." But since "nobody has that capacity" given the situation in the strait, "instead, we are working with our brothers to look at pipeline capacity that can grow out," he said. He did not specify which projects Kuwait was studying with its neighbors. The KPC chief did caution, however, that an alternative export route would not totally insulate Kuwait, or any other country, from risk. Pipelines "are only as safe as the export facility at the end of it," Sheikh Nawaf said. "And you've seen how Iran has targeted both the Saudi and Emirati pipelines, and how those [attacks] have been effective, to a certain degree." Fujairah was targeted on five separate occasions between late February and early June, according to Argus tracking, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port was targeted once, and the East-West pipeline was targeted once , temporarily reducing throughput capacity by around 700,000 b/d. "A long pipeline needs compression. So, if you hit one node of that compression, you've got to rebuild that," said Sheikh Nawaf. "The easiest thing to rebuild or replace is the pipeline itself. But if you hit the compression facility, that takes more time." "And worse yet, is if you hit the export facility, because then, the pipeline is essentially useless," he said. "And we would have to work together with our partners [to recover]." Swift-ish recovery The disruption of oil flows through the strait of Hormuz forced Kuwait to scale back its crude production capacity to about 25pc of pre-conflict levels. "We took our production levels down at the beginning of the war, carefully and methodically, to what is only required for local consumption in Kuwait, because we could not export anything," Sheikh Nawaf said. Latest Argus estimates put Kuwaiti crude output at 580,000 b/d in May, compared with 2.59mn b/d in February. Many weeks of on-and-off diplomacy between Iran and the US has not led to clarity on when marine traffic could meaningfully recover, but Sheikh Nawaf said when it does Kuwait should be able to resume the majority of its production within less than a month. "We could get back to 80pc of our shut-in production [back] in less than a month, probably three weeks, because we have resilient reservoirs," he said. With around 2mn b/d of crude output shut-in, this would imply a return of 1.6mn b/d within weeks, lifting output to around 2.1mn b/d. Sheikh Nawaf suggested the shut-in of some reservoirs may have "benefited" them because it "allowed them to settle and recharge, essentially, the underground pressure." But he said the final 20pc "is always the hardest," which could take another "three to four months" to recover. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US retaliates after Iran downs chopper: Update

09/06/26
News
09/06/26

US retaliates after Iran downs chopper: Update

Updates with details throughout Washington, 9 June (Argus) — The US military carried out retaliatory strikes on targets in Iran after Iran shot down a US military helicopter patrolling the strait of Hormuz earlier Tuesday. The US forces began launching "self-defense" strikes at 5pm ET (21:00 GMT) on Tuesday, and will keep its mission "proportional" to the Iranian attack, said the US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces. President Donald Trump earlier on Tuesday ordered the Pentagon to retaliate against Iran following what he said was the downing of a US Army Apache helicopter near the coast of Oman by Iran. The two crew members were safe, according to Centcom. Iran's foreign ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued statements on Tuesday that appeared to disavow direct responsibility for the downing of the US military helicopter. "Foreign forces in proximity to our territory are at constant risk on account of their own human errors, plain accidents, or potentially being caught in crossfire," Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post. Iran will deliver "a decisive response" if the US renews hostilities following "the pretext of a helicopter crash", according to news agency Tasnim, which is linked to the IRGC. Low-intensity fighting between US and Iranian forces has flared up repeatedly since late May. The US has targeted Iranian military infrastructure around the strait of Hormuz and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against vessels passing through the strait and US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The incident on Tuesday marks the first loss of a US military aircraft since the US and Iran declared a ceasefire on 8 April. Despite fighting underway, Trump since 22 May has repeatedly described a US-Iran peace deal as practically finalized. "We have ongoing negotiations in Iran and with Iran, that hasn't stopped," Trump said late on Monday. "And we could have at least an idea by one or two days from now, but I think it's going well." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US defends Venezuelan oil achievements

09/06/26
News
09/06/26

US defends Venezuelan oil achievements

Caracas, 9 June (Argus) — The US' top envoy in Venezuela John Barrett highlighted Venezuela's crude exports reaching a multi-year high of 1.25mn b/d, which he attributed to the administration's continuing intervention. The exports are the highest in seven years and come as US authorities "continue collaborating" with the interim government of Venezuela, Barrett said. Venezuela's crude exports were slightly above 1.25mn b/d in the weeks starting 18 and 25 May, and averaged about 1.1mn b/d for all of May, based on Kpler shipping data. May's exports were the highest since February 2019, the data show. President Donald Trump's administration has stepped up efforts to showcase the increase in Venezuela's oil production and exports after the US intervention, to push back on critics of its handling of the war in Iran, which resulted in the greatest recorded disruption of global oil supply. "Venezuela really stands out as one of the great foreign policy successes of the Trump administration," assistant secretary of state Caleb Orr said at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Forum in Washington on Tuesday. "We have more oil and gas and coal and everything else than any other country on the planet," Trump told reporters last week. "And then when you add Venezuela to it, we have probably 64pc of that type of energy." But Trump's Venezuela policy has as many critics in Congress as his approach to Iran. A group of Democratic US lawmakers on Monday renewed calls for free elections in Venezuela — the US did not recognize former leader Nicolas Maduro as president because of allegations of electoral fraud in the 2024 vote. The US left Maduro's vice-president Delcy Rodriguez in power after seizing Maduro on 3 January. "The Delcy regime is still stacked with the same Maduro regime officials, the regime has yet to outline an electoral timeline and 473 political prisoners continue to languish in prison", House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-New York) and Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) said in a letter to US secretary of state Marco Rubio on 8 June. "We understand that elections and a true democratic transition cannot happen overnight," the senators said. "But neither will happen at all if the Trump administration fails to exercise its leverage to insist on the necessary institutional changes that would make a democratic possible". In Caracas, relatives of political prisoners demonstrating outside the US embassy were promised individual interviews with US officials there to explain their cases. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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