The French wheat yield potential for the 2026–27 marketing year starting on 1 July in Aube (Grand Est) and Seine-et-Marne (Centre-East) is expected to fall below the seven-year truncated average, because dry spring conditions curtailed crop development, as confirmed on the final day of the Argus France wheat crop tour.
On this sixth day, the team travelled across Aube and covered the remaining parts of Seine-et-Marne, following a first visit to the southern areas 10 days earlier. Observations confirm an uneven picture, with yield outcomes largely dictated by soil depth and soil moisture level rather than the recent heatwave that hit northern regions.
In Aube, yield potential closely mirrors earlier findings from central France. Fields on deep soils are still capable of reaching average levels, while shallower soils are driving the deficit at a regional level. The spring drought — rather than heat stress during grain filling — is the main factor behind the reduction in yield potential. Final output is now estimated at around 7.6 t/hectare (ha), or 5pc below the seven-year truncated average, excluding the unrepresentative 2024–25 season.
A similar trend is observed in Seine-et-Marne, where yields are estimated at 7.8 t/ha, also 5pc below the average. In areas north of Provins, a significant share of the initially strong potential seen earlier this month has been lost over the past 8–10 days, highlighting how quickly conditions have deteriorated across part of the region.
Across both regions, crops are now fully mature, with wheat, barley and rapeseed all ready for harvest. Early harvesting is prioritising barley and rapeseed, but the wheat harvest is expected to accelerate shortly. Grain moisture levels are already low — often below 12pc — raising concerns over further drying, reduced grain size and lower thousand kernel weight. Grains on lower spikelets are particularly affected, with some proving unproductive.
Logistical challenges are also emerging. High temperatures — reaching 40°C during the day and remaining above 25°C at night — are complicating storage conditions. Cooling grain has become difficult, limiting ventilation in silos and increasing the risk of insect development. The small, dry grain profile also raises the risk of breakage during handling.
