News
05/11/26
Paraguay president resigns on banking scandal: Update
Updates with lower house's vote to begin impeachment process. Sao Paulo, 5
November (Argus) — Paraguay is in the grips of its worst political crisis in
years, with President Santiago Pena submitting his resignation on Thursday
following a banking scandal. Pena said in a recording that he was resigning,
"with the stability of our country, social peace, and the need to preserve our
democratic institutions in mind". The resignation, however, might be trumped by
impeachment. Congress, including the long-ruling Colorado Party, have turned
against Pena. Shortly after Pena resigned, the lower house voted 78-0 to start
an impeachment process. Paraguay's constitution allows the chamber to reject a
resignation. The impeachment would have to be approved by the senate, where
Pena's party has a slim majority, with 23 of the 45 seats. In a separate motion,
the lower house voted 30-48 to reject an impeachment motion against
vice-president Pedro Alliana, who will replace Pena. Regardless of the decision
on Pena, the vote in favor of Alliana means that he is in line to serve out the
five-year term. The next general elections are in April 2028. The crisis could
undermine Paraguay's image as a stable economic bet in the region, with the
country trying to court investment in energy and mining, including critical
minerals. In late October, it joined the US-led US Pax Silica program to secure
supply chains that include critical minerals. In August, it began talks with the
US to sign an agreement on nuclear energy. The government has also been working
to attract the first private investment in power, with a 140MW tender for solar
power scheduled for the first quarter of 2027. The crisis, months in the making,
exploded on 2 November when the central bank said that it would intervene in
digital bank Ueno. The bank had 2.94mn clients, equivalent to 63pc of Paraguay's
adult population. Pena has been closely linked to the bank since the previous
decade, when he was finance minister. After his election to a five-year term in
2023, he named Ueno chief executive Carlos Carvallo to head the central bank.
The president tried to distance himself from the bank, but the scandal only
deepened. He called for Carvallo's resignation and submitted emergency
legislation to the legislature to ensure deposits were honored. Adding to the
problem, the government under Pena moved a large amount of the state's pension
funds to Ueno. At the time of the intervention, Ueno held 11pc of pension funds,
one point above the legal limit. The Ueno scandal is not the only international
looming in Paraguay. It faces arbitration from UK-listed Atome after the
government reneged on a power purchase agreement (PPA). Atome secured more than
$600mn in financing earlier this year for a 260,000 metric tonnes/yr project to
produce calcium ammonium nitrate fertilizer. It was contingent on a 145MW PPA
agreed to with the state-owned power utility Ande, but Pena in June repealed
decrees that allowed Atome to sign a contract. Atome arbitration claim states
that Paraguay violated its bilateral investment treaty with the UK. Markets
pause Paraguay's fuel importers, distributors and traders have adopted a
wait-and-see approach following Pena's resignation, suspending new negotiations
for both fossil fuels and biofuels. Market participants said it is too early to
assess the crisis' impact, especially on the foreign exchange rate. One importer
said the sharp decline in Nymex heating oil and RBOB futures contracts currently
more than offsets the effect of the weaker Paraguayan currency. Paraguay has no
domestic crude production or refining capacity and relies entirely on imports to
meet its fuel demand. Ethanol market participants expect the situation to prompt
pricing increases on both corn and sugarcane-based volumes. Producers are
closely monitoring any blending policy changes promoted by the new
administration. By Lucien Chauvin, Flavia Alemi and Pedro Consoli Send comments
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