Brazil's critical minerals industry could add up to R192bn ($37bn) to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, according to the US chamber of commerce (AmCham) for Brazil.
AmCham Brazil, the largest overseas US-centered business association in the world, published on 4 August a study about the potential economic gains that the critical minerals industry could bring to Brazil's GDP.
For that, it considered two scenarios.
In the first scenario, investment would come mainly from domestic capital and critical minerals output would remain focused on exports of lower value-added products — such as spodumene ore and rare earths carbonates — with zero to no domestic downstream integration.
This case would focus on increasing critical minerals production by 2050, requiring R104.8bn in investments. The added output would lift Brazil's GDP by 1.1pc, translating into a R128.6bn rise, and create 304,000 jobs.
The second scenario assumes greater foreign investment, expanded mineral processing in Brazil and growing use of higher value-added critical minerals products by the domestic industry. The necessary investments to support this expansion are R120.8bn, but returns could increase Brazil's GDP by 1.6pc, or R192bn by 2050, while also creating 750,000 jobs.
Vertically integrating Brazil's critical minerals industry would bring R63.4bn in GDP gains, while also boosting domestic consumption of higher value-added critical minerals products by R32.3bn, according to AmCham.
The study's result aligns with Brazil president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's push to vertically integrate the critical minerals industry in Brazil, despite skepticism from the industry towards the feasibility of adding downstream plants to the country without substantial federal grants.
Production increases expected
AmCham also expects Brazil's critical minerals output to increase across the board, including the addition of cobalt output, which is currently non-existent in the country.
AmCham expects Brazil's copper, graphite, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths output to consistently grow by 2050, with rare earths and graphite experiencing the sharpest growth spurts.
Brazil has the world's second-largest rare earths reserves but minimal production. AmCham expects Brazil's rare earths output to rise from 20 metric tonnes (t) in 2024 to 12,800t in 2050, a 28pc compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
Graphite is also expected to increase, going from 68,000t to roughly 1.6mn t, a 12.9 CAGR.
| Brazil's critical minerals production projections | metric tonnes | ||
| Mineral | 2024 output | 2050 proj. output | 2024-2050 CAGR (%) |
| Copper | 527,000 | 894,000 | 2.1 |
| Graphite | 68,000 | 1,600,000 | 12.9 |
| Lithium | 10,000 | 133,000 | 10.5 |
| Nickel | 77,000 | 117,200 | 1.6 |
| Cobalt | 0 | 17,400 | na |
| Rare earths | 20 | 12,800 | 28.2 |
| AmCham drew its figures from 2025 studies by Brazil's international relations (CEBRI), mining technology (CETEM), and mineral (IBRAM) institutes. | |||
| AmCham Brazil | |||
