US officials continue to claim a high number of tankers are exiting the strait of Hormuz through US-assisted transits, despite vessel tracking and satellite information pointing to much lower traffic through the strait.
"Right now, the strait is open. A lot of boats are coming through. We are getting a lot of oil out," US President Trump said on 19 August at the White House.
But vessel information firm TankerTrackers.com said on 20 August that only 5mn b/d is departing the US Navy blockade line regardless of where the loading or transfer of crude is taking place, in response to claims by US officials that 10mn b/d are traveling through the strait of Hormuz. The US-imposed blockade on Iranian ports is being enforced from outside the strait of Hormuz between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, so the TankerTrackers.com figure likely includes loadings at the UAE and Oman's eastern ports within the Gulf of Oman, beyond the confines of the strait itself.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed last week that an average of 9mn b/d exited the strait of Hormuz, a figure much higher than available information.
"We do have control of the strait, you would have seen media reports that large amounts of energy are getting out, and you know I think that we can continue doing that in the southern lane," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview with CNBC on 20 August.
Available vessel tracking and satellite data does not corroborate the assertions made by US officials that many tankers are going through the strait of Hormuz on the US' southern transit lane.
Some tanker traffic is occurring through the strait, undetected by conventional vessel tracking systems since vessels are transiting with their automatic identification systems off. But these transits are visible through satellite imagery, on both the US-supported southern lane and the northern Iranian-controlled lane, data from maritime security firm Windward shows. These observable flows are at a fraction of pre-war levels, while many vessels transiting through the southern lane have been subject to attacks by Iranian forces.
Tanker flows through the strait of Hormuz itself are projected by vessel tracking firm Vortexa to stand at around 941,400 b/d for the period of 14-21 August, comprised mostly of Iraqi and Saudi shipments.
Most of the energy that is leaving the Mideast Gulf following the outbreak of the US-Iran war is doing so through the UAE and Oman's eastern ports. Estimates from Vortexa place exports via Fujairah port in the week between 14-21 August around 2.06mn b/d while exports via Sohar and Muscat, Oman, totaled around 1.15mn b/d in the same period. Vessel tracking data shows around 4mn b/d total departing from around the Mideast Gulf, including flows through Hormuz, in the last week.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment from Argus to provide additional details on the US' efforts to support tanker transits through the strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz tanker traffic on Iranian lanes up
Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours totaled 16 vessels, mostly transiting through the northern, Iranian-controlled transit lane, split between 10 inbound transits and six outbound transits, data from maritime security firm Windward shows.
Tanker traffic totaled 12 vessels, split between seven inbound and five outbound transits, most of which took place on the northern lane, Windward data shows. The Liberia-flagged Sweden Prosperity and the Hong Kong-flagged Hestia transited the strait inbound through the southern corridor, Windward data shows. However, the Hestia has turned back following its successful inbound transit and is currently idling off the eastern coast of the UAE, data from vessel tracking service Vortexa shows. The Hestia is one of at least two China-affiliated very large crude carriers to abandon its transits through the strait of Hormuz over the last few days. The remaining five inbound transits took place on the northern, Iranian controlled lane, according to Windward.
For outbound transits, a single transit took place on the US-supported southern lane, Windward tracked the Ashley which transited dark. The Ashley is laden with 469,000 bl of fuel oil it loaded at Dubai lightering area on 16 August and is currently idling off Fujirah, according to Kpler data.
