The 2026-27 corn crop in Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state will be smaller than the current cycle's — despite slightly more planted area — as the El Nino climate phenomenon creates great risks for yields next year.
Mato Grosso's institute of agricultural economics (Imea) expect the 2026-27 second crop corn harvest to reach 53.7mn metric tonnes (t), down by 7.5pc from the 2025-26 season. The projected drop in production for next year was provided along with a 1.1pc increase to the production estimate for the current 2025-26 crop, which is now set at record 58mn t.
The increase to the 2025-26 crop production estimate resulted from a 1.1pc increase to yields, which are now estimated at a record 130.11 60kg bags/hectare (ha). But the yield outlook for 2026-27 is lower.
Weather conditions could limit corn productivity in the 2026-27 season. El Nino is expected to impact the development of the soybean crop this year, resulting in delays to corn planting and potentially cuts to planted area. Additionally, the increased risk of dryer weather later in the growing season creates additional risk for crop development and yields next year.
As a result, Imea placed its corn yield estimate for 2026-27 at 119.64 bags/ha, an 8.1pc decrease from the current harvest. The institute expects the planted area to grow next season — up by 0.6pc to 7.48mn ha (74,800km²) — following higher domestic demand for Matto Grosso's corn. But this increased area outlook was also based on an uncertain weather outlook and could be impacted by planting delays, Imea said.
Cotton
The 2025-26 cotton crop's planted area estimate was reduced by less than 1pc from the previous report, but this season's production outlook was increased due to higher yields.
Cotton area is now estimated at 1.37mn ha, down by only 0.07pc from Imea's August estimate. With that cut, the institute also increased this season's yield estimate by 2.6pc to 323.37 bags/ha. As of the report, Mato Grosso's cotton harvest had progressed past the halfway point, confirming the expectation of exceptional yields this year and reducing the risk that yields will be revised significantly lower, Imea said.
With the revised area and yield estimates, the cotton harvest is now estimated at 6.67mn t, a 2.5pc increase from the previous estimate, but still down by 8.9pc from the previous year's harvest.
Soybeans
Imea maintained its 2026-27 production estimate of 48.9mn t, but weather will be a significant risk factor as planting approaches.
Planting is expected to begin during September in areas with adequate soil moisture. With the risk of El Nino impacting growing conditions later this season, and adequate soil moister during planting noted as major concern for producers this season, the timing and availability of rain in the coming weeks will be critical for dictating the timing and pace of planting this season, Imea said.
