There is "no credible pathway" for a proposed Heathrow airport expansion that would meet UK climate commitments, unless the government sets policy to ensure the aviation industry reaches net zero emissions by 2050, the parliamentary advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) said today.
"Heathrow expansion is not currently compatible with the UK's net zero target. Government needs to ensure that the aviation industry takes responsibility for the emissions it creates and bears the costs of decarbonisation", CCC chair Nigel Topping said.
The government should require the aviation industry to abate 100pc of emissions by 2050 before consenting the proposed Heathrow expansion, the CCC said. The aviation sector could reduce its emissions through "greater efficiency and managing demand growth", the CCC said. But "these can only go so far", so sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and engineered greenhouse gas (GHG) removals will also be needed, the committee found. It warned that nature-based removals "are not suitable for offsetting residual aviation emissions because they lack the permanence needed to match very long-lived CO2 emissions".
The CCC set out a pathway through which the aviation industry could reach net zero emissions by 2050, incorporating the polluter pays principle. Industry would foot the bill for SAF and engineered removals, "which are assumed to be passed onto ticket prices", the CCC said.
The committee warned on SAF and engineered GHG removals, flagging that "there remains uncertainty around their deployment at scale on the timelines required". The government should ensure "contingency policies to allow for delays", the CCC added.
Heathrow, west of London, is the UK's largest airport. It accounts for nearly a quarter of UK flights and around half of UK aviation emissions, the CCC said. UK civil aviation emissions are provisionally estimated at 37.2mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025, it found. Aviation is the UK's fifth-highest emitting sector. Heathrow aims to secure planning permission by 2029 for its expansion plans, which includes building a third runway. The planned expansion would not be complete until 2054.
Non-governmental organisation T&E found this week that "cumulative extra emissions from a third Heathrow runway between 2035 and 2050 would be equivalent to a full year of emissions from Croatia's entire economy".
The UK government requested advice from the CCC on the Heathrow expansion. The UK has a legally-binding target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050.
