The Netherlands has published a roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, outlining the difficulties the country will face in the transition and setting no date for an ultimate halt to fossil fuel use.
The plan aims at the "minimisation" of fossil fuel use by 2050, with its "ultimate" phase-out date left undefined. It identifies challenges in moving away from each of natural gas, oil and coal.
The country committed to producing a roadmap to end fossil fuel use at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil last year, and recommitted to it at the Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels conference in Santa Marta in May. The latter conference was organised outside of formal UN channels and attended only by countries keen to advance on cutting fossil fuel use. The Netherlands co-hosted the meeting with Colombia. But the Latin American country's new administration has since said it plans to pursue a different approach to transitioning to cleaner energy, reopening the door to expanding oil and natural gas.
The Dutch government said that the transition away from gas is made more difficult by the fuel's role in the Netherlands' energy system. "As long as full-fledged, sustainable alternatives are insufficiently available, natural gas remains essential for our society," the roadmap reads.
Gas plays a large role in balancing the Netherlands' renewable-heavy power system, filling in during periods of low intermittent renewable output.
Replacement of gas in domestic heating is underway, with increased electrification and insulation reducing consumption in recent years. But "uncertainties are considerably greater" on the use of gas in industry, the government said.
Allocating fixed costs of the gas network to a shrinking number of users during the transition represents another difficulty. Some changes have been made which frontload costs to the coming years, when they can be spread across more users.
Gas consumption would fall to around 110TWh by 2040, from around 250TWh in 2025, under the government's plan. But alternative government projections suggest consumption could fall to 140-190TWh.
The government plans to prioritise domestic production of gas, citing its lower climate impact compared to imported LNG, and lower dependence on other countries. The country produces around 20 mn m³/d of natural gas, or the equivalent of 100TWh/yr.
On oil, the government considers the transition to be relatively sure in mobility. But it said that phasing out of fossil fuel use in the chemical sector is more uncertain as demand for sustainable raw materials remains slow as a result of a lack of policy support.
Coal use in the Netherlands is limited to the power and steel sectors. In the former, a ban will come into force in 2030, although this will negatively affect security of supply, according to the roadmap. In the steel sector the replacement of the country's two coal-consuming blast furnaces could take place in the 2030s, although this will depend on "technological and market developments," the government said.
Environmental non-governmental organisation (NGO) welcomed the publication of the roadmap, but criticised the absence of phase out dates for oil and gas and ongoing gas production.
