Logistics weigh on Ukraine harvest progress

Market: Agriculture
28/09/26

Ukraine's harvest campaign remains sluggish for major crops, as logistical constraints limit sales and reduce the incentives for faster fieldwork. While domestic crushers continue to purchase sunflower seed (SFS), export bottlenecks for sunflower oil and meal are curbing processing activity, raising concerns over potential SFS stock accumulation later in the season.

Ukrainian farmers harvested 3.36mn t of SFS from 1.66mn hectares (ha), or 32pc of the crop's forecast area, according to preliminary agriculture ministry data as of 28 September. The crop has an average yield of 2.03 t/ha.

The harvest is the slowest since 2022, when slightly under 945,000ha had been harvested by 29 September.

Domestic crushing demand continues to provide an outlet for SFS, although processors still face challenges selling sunflower oil and meal. But current demand may prove insufficient to absorb incoming supplies later in the season, with logistics a greater concern for crushers than raw material availability, according to market participants.

Similar conditions were apparent in the 2021-22 season, when logistical disruptions increased carryout SFS stocks to 4.6mn t, up from 200,000t on average in the previous five years, according to Argus estimates. If exports of sunflower oil and meal remain limited, stocks could again build despite ongoing procurement.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's corn harvest remains exceptionally slow. Farmers have harvested just 153,000ha, or 3pc of the forecast 4.55mn ha area. Production so far totals 789,000t, while average yields rose to 5.15 t/ha from 5 t/ha a week earlier and 4.92 t/ha a year earlier.

Unlike sunflower seed, corn can generally be left in fields for longer after maturity, giving farmers greater flexibility to delay harvesting while assessing export prospects, storage availability and price trends while deep-sea ports remain effectively blocked.

Soybeans were harvested from 571,000ha, or 36pc of the total forecast 1.6mn ha area, the slowest pace at this point in the past three years. Production reached 1.2mn t, with average yields at 2.13 t/ha.

As for winter crops, Ukraine's agriculture ministry revised its winter wheat output estimate to 26mn t from 5.11mn ha, up by almost 3mn t from a year earlier, with average yields reaching a record 5.08 t/ha. Barley yields increased to 4.46 t/ha from 4.34 t/ha a week earlier, while total rapeseed production reached 3.86mn t. These preliminary figures will be confirmed later by Ukraine's State Statistics Service.

By Kateryna Mudriian

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