Since the IEA's first summit on clean cooking in Africa in Paris in 2024, governments, development banks, NGOs and the private sector have stepped up efforts to expand access to modern cooking fuels across sub-Saharan Africa, where energy poverty remains most acute. LPG is still the most practical alternative to the harmful fuels used by close to 1bn people in the region, and the IEA has become one of its most prominent advocates despite its fossil-fuel status. Argus' Waldemar Jaszczyk spoke with IEA executive director Fatih Birol in the run-up to Liquid Gas Week in Istanbul this month about progress so far and the challenges ahead:
What key developments have been made since the first summit in Paris?
For almost 25 years, I have tried to raise this issue. Every year, we publish the World Energy Outlook and highlight how many people lack access to clean cooking, country by country. After trying to push it almost alone, I was very happy to see growing interest. Based on my discussions with different government leaders, we organised the first IEA summit with great success. We had more than 1,200 delegates and almost 10 heads of state. Together, we raised pledges worth $2.2bn. At the end of the meeting, I told government leaders around the world, as well as delegates and the press, that we would track this $2.2bn. About $740mn of this has now been deployed, or one-third. We have a list of projects across Africa, that are mainly LPG — terminals in Kenya and Tanzania, new stove manufacturing in Nigeria and stove deployment in Senegal.
The summit was the first such meeting in history. But there are two other events that I want to draw attention to. The most recent was during the UN General Assembly, when a dedicated clean cooking session took place for the first time. I co-chaired it with Kenyan president [William] Ruto. We had many ministers, including US energy secretary Chris Wright. The third event will be in Nairobi in January. I understand there is huge interest from governments and companies in attending. It will be organised by Kenya, Norway and the IEA. I have received a lot of support from the World Bank. Its president Ajay Banga was in New York, and he will also be coming to Kenya. I will also chair the World Economic Forum in Davos a few days before our second summit in Nairobi. I am going to include, again for the first time, a session dedicated to clean cooking and LPG.
The World Bank suggested a bold proposal would be forthcoming in Nairobi. Can you give any more information on it?
We are in discussions with the World Bank on what would be most helpful. Pledges from governments, the private sector and oil and gas companies are definitely important. But a well-designed bond scheme from the World Bank would be helpful. In my view, the small IEA, with its limited means, has spent the past 25 years raising this key developmental issue in international forums. I think the World Bank should have done so much earlier, as its key objective is development in emerging countries. In my view, the World Bank has, until now, failed to address this issue. So I am very happy that it is now joining forces with us. We are working very closely with the World Bank, the African Development Bank and others. We hope to reach an agreement and make an announcement in Nairobi this year on the bond scheme.
Do you think this scheme would be a game-changer for financing clean cooking?
I think it has real potential, but it is still early days. The key question is how effectively the model can be scaled and translated into investments on the ground. Our analysis shows that closing the clean cooking access gap in Africa by 2040 would require around $2bn/yr in up-front investment. The IEA works with a wide range of companies across Africa that are helping expand clean cooking access and could benefit from this type of financing. We are exchanging with the World Bank to help identify the right partners and ensure that the capital mobilised supports the investments needed on the ground.
What progress has been made in connecting Africa's clean cooking transition to carbon markets?
Carbon markets are already an important part of the financing model for many clean-cooking developers in Africa. By our accounting, carbon credits represent one in every eight dollars flowing into Africa's clean cooking sector. But concerns about the integrity of some projects and the application of certain methodologies have shaken market confidence, and contributed to a credits oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. Rebuilding trust is therefore essential. There is encouraging work under way, including the application of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market's Core Carbon Principles and the development of more robust methodologies under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism.
How has the Iran war impacted clean cooking transitions to LPG?
When people look at prices, they look at the crude price, but nobody uses crude directly. People use LPG, diesel and other products. LPG is used mainly in developing countries and by lower-income groups, so there was a major problem. We are seeing many developing countries face serious challenges and shortages as prices remain very high. At least 30 significant LPG-consuming countries have less than 15 days of storage left. We already have an oil security mechanism under which we release stocks when there is a market disruption. We are now developing a clean cooking security programme to help countries establish fuel security and emergency response frameworks, and expand strategic and commercial storage capacity. If I had to identify those most vulnerable to the effects of this Iran war, I would say LPG users in the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia.
How will the security programme work in practice?
The programme is focused on making clean cooking markets and supply chains more resilient. In practice, the programme will bring together governments, companies and civil society to identify and advance priority actions. These could include strengthening domestic policies, investing in critical infrastructure and improving international co-ordination to diversify supply and manage disruptions. The IEA brings significant expertise in energy security and policy design. We can work with governments to assess their local energy systems, identify vulnerabilities and develop practical policy approaches to address them.
What role does the LPG industry play in expanding access?
Clean cooking is, in my view, the biggest injustice among global energy issues. It can also be solved relatively easily, without discovering new technology or requiring huge investment or financing. When we consider the solutions, which is the easiest and most cost-effective? Our country-by-country, fuel-by-fuel analysis shows that LPG is the number one answer. Our analysis also shows that, among people who gained access to clean cooking in the past 15 years, about three-quarters did so through LPG and one-quarter through other sources. India made a major achievement through the PMUY programme. Prime Minister Narendra Modi once told me that our contribution to this programme helped him win elections in India, thanks to votes from women whose lives changed when they gained access to LPG. I therefore see LPG as the primary response to the clean cooking challenge we face. That is why I thought it would be important for the IEA and the WLGA to join forces to organise the meeting in Istanbul. I know LPG has many uses, but focusing on clean cooking has two advantages for business leaders. First, it is a huge market. Second, it may be good for reputation to be seen as an enabler in addressing one of the biggest injustices in the world.
Are we still on track to reach universal access in Africa by 2040 in spite of the current challenges?
The crisis has certainly created headwinds and real hardship for many households. But political momentum behind clean cooking is continuing to grow, and the number of people gaining access each year is expected to increase. Unfortunately, progress remains too slow and is concentrated in a handful of countries that have made clean cooking a priority and attracted the investment needed. If countries were to accelerate towards the best rates of progress already demonstrated, Africa could close its clean cooking access gap by 2040. Universal access is achievable, but it requires a step change in action. What matters between now and 2030 is laying the foundations to make that possible. For me, success by 2030 means that governments, the private sector and civil society are all taking concrete steps to accelerate progress. Through our summit in January in Nairobi, the IEA is working to bring these actors together, strengthen commitments and turn growing political momentum into the policies, investment and action needed to put Africa on a path to universal clean cooking access.
