European cobalt prices fell sharply on 22 October, with standard-grade metal in Rotterdam assessed at $17-18/lb, down from $21-22/lb on 20 October, as weakness in Chinese feedstocks, salts and battery materials continued to weigh on the market.
The decline mirrors moves elsewhere in the cobalt supply chain. Argus-assessed cobalt hydroxide fell to $11.2-13.2/lb cif China on 22 October from $17.5-20/lb on 1 September, while Chinese cobalt metal dropped to Yn230-240/kg ($14.6-15.2/lb) from Yn301/kg on 3 September. Prices for cobalt sulphate — which accounts for the vast majority of end-use cobalt demand — have fallen to Yn43,000-45,000/t from Yn58,000-60,000/t in mid-October.
Several traders and consumers said hydroxide offers have fallen faster than metal prices in recent weeks, with indications as low as $12-13/lb. Some said the decline reflected only a small number of trades and that liquidity remained too thin to establish a clear market level. Others pointed to weak demand across several downstream sectors and said the correction was overdue.
Consumer electronics remains central to that weakness. Global lithium-cobalt-oxide (LCO) output is expected to fall by at least 30pc this year from 130,000t in 2025, while global smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by 16.7pc and tablet shipments by 8.6pc, according to US market research firm IDC. Participants said inventories accumulated in late 2025 and early 2026 were still being drawn down, limiting buying interest despite lower prices.
Alternative feedstocks have also limited hydroxide demand. Imports of battery recycling feedstocks increased after China approved black mass imports last year. Consumers have increasingly turned to recycled material, mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and cobalt metal as alternatives to hydroxide feedstock.
Tighter supply struggles to impact price direction
Prices have fallen despite renewed discussions about Indonesian supply cuts.
Major producers including Tsingshan, Lygend, GEM and Huayou met in Shanghai on 20 October to discuss cutting MHP and nickel matte production by 50pc after a prolonged deterioration in margins. One producer estimated that output could fall to around 25,000 t/month of contained nickel from 45,000-50,000 t/month currently, implying a reduction of roughly 1,250-2,500 t/month of contained cobalt.
The discussions reflect growing pressure on nickel margins. One producer said it had discussed curtailments as LME nickel approached $15,500/t. Prices fell as low as $15,275/t before recovering on reports of the Shanghai meeting. Indonesia's nickel miners' association APNI said just last month that prices closer to $18,000-18,500/t are needed to support the wider Indonesian nickel value chain.
Several market participants nevertheless questioned how far any cuts would reduce cobalt availability. Chinese state-owned research group Antaike expects recycled cobalt supply to reach 50,000t of cobalt equivalent this year, up 26pc from 2025, while refined cobalt demand is projected to decline by 5.4pc to 217,000t.
Market participants also reported substantial inventories. One estimated that 40,000-50,000t of cobalt units remain outside China in hydroxide form, while others pointed to full bonded warehouses holding MHP and cobalt-bearing raw materials around Guangzhou. Wuxi exchange stocks have fallen sharply, but participants estimated in July that a further 8,000-12,000t of cobalt metal remained elsewhere in China, equivalent to 4-5 months of domestic demand.
Those inventories help explain why tighter controls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have provided less support than many expected. Export quotas and strategic allocations reduced feedstock availability earlier this year and contributed to a sharp rise in cobalt prices in the first half.
But imports from the DRC subsequently recovered, Indonesian production continued to rise and recycled feedstocks became increasingly available.
