Iran increases Hormuz attacks, commercial threats

Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Freight, Natural gas, Oil products
06/11/26

Iran is increasing pressure on shipping out of the Mideast Gulf by escalating the physical, and potentially financial, risks associated with transiting the strait of Hormuz, with deadly consequences.

At least two seafarers died in the strait of Hormuz this week, with the International Maritime Organization confirming a crew fatality following the 4 November attack on the Velos Sapphiretanker. This attack occurred two days after an Indian national died following a strike on a small cargo ship off the coast of Oman.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has progressively expanded its list of vessels it says do not comply with transit rules it imposed since the US and Israel attacked it in February, and warned last week it would take action against all vessels linked to South Korea shipping firm Sinokor.

The PGSA did not specify in its latest notice what action would be taken against the vessels, but the authority has previously said ships on its non-compliance list could face restrictions on future passages through the strait of Hormuz, including fines, detention or confiscation.

Iran is attempting to increase the perceived commercial risk associated with the PGSA non-compliance list by expanding it, but the practical risk of attack remains tied to strait of Hormuz transit activity, maritime intelligence firm Ambrey said in an assessment on Friday.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported 11 attacks in the week ended 4 November, split between eight in the strait of Hormuz and three inside the Mideast Gulf. Of those attacks, three vessels continued their voyages, three vessels sank and the remaining five ships all required assistance.

There is no direct relationship between Iranian attacks and being on the PGSA's list, with fewer than 15pc of vessels struck by Iran having been designated by the PGSA prior to getting attacked, Ambrey said.

Record tanker earnings have enticed a growing number of transits through the strait of Hormuz despite the fatal risks associated with such trips. An increase in vessel transits, especially through the southern US-assisted lane, has in turn given Iran a growing number of targets to hit. The southern lane remains the most targeted, accounting for 63 out of 88 projectile strikes reported to the UKMTO since July.

Preliminary data shows oil flows through the strait of Hormuz fell in October from the month prior amid increased attacks from Iran, but flows remained up from August levels.

By Charlotte Bawol

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06/11/26

Brazil sets out guidelines to phase out fossil fuels

Sao Paulo, 6 November (Argus) — Brazil's energy policy council CNPE has published a resolution setting the guidelines to develop its national roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, it said on Friday. The resolution does not create the roadmap yet, but instead sets 18 directives for it, and which stipulates that it should take into account the following: Just transition as a driver of development National vulnerabilities and resilience National climate goals and international commitments Social participation Transparency and monitoring Energy security and resilience Impacts and capabilities of the energy sector Integration of financing mechanisms Impacts on public revenue Economic competitiveness and energy prices Workforce development Equity and the reduction of inequalities Risks, uncertainties, and the costs of regret Trends and potential of the energy transition Diversification and flexibility of the energy sector Infrastructure adaptation Strategic areas for research and innovation Alignment of energy sector subsidies and incentives Brazil's roadmap will also take into account national energy and climate planning instruments, including the national energy transition plan — approved by CNPE on Friday — the climate plan, the nationally determined contribution and the ecological transformation plan, the government said. The resolution also sets an inter-ministerial working group that will be responsible for drafting the roadmap. It will be coordinated by the chief of staff and the mines and energy, finance, and environment and climate change ministries. The group will coordinate technical studies, identify alternatives for the energy transition and evaluate financing mechanisms to enable its implementation, including potentially creating an energy transition fund. The group will have 270 days — starting from the day its members are appointed — to develop the roadmap. That timeline can be extended by 90 days if needed. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — who was re-elected on 25 October — called on world leaders to draw up roadmaps to "overcome dependence on fossil fuels" during a global summit ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate talks in November 2025 , which Brazil hosted. He later called on his own administration to draft a national roadmap . An initial presidential decree required ministries to draft a resolution by 3 February 2026, but the administration missed that deadline. A roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels became one of the main topics at Cop 30 after Lula's call to world leaders and gained momentum after around 80 countries backed the initiative . But the summit ended without a deal on the topic . Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to oversee the creation of a roadmap on the issue. Almost 200 countries had agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in a landmark decision at Cop 28 in 2023 , held in Dubai. The Cop 30 presidency presented its roadmap on the topic earlier this week . Other countries, including France, Germany and the Netherlands, have already published their own roadmaps. Deforestation Brazil also published on Friday its roadmap to combat deforestation. The Cop 30 presidency had also pledged to create a roadmap on the topic at the end of Cop 30. It was also presented earlier this week. The roadmap focuses on four areas: conservation and sustainable use of forests, forest restoration, continued efforts to combat illegal deforestation and fires, and a reduction in the legal clearing of vegetation, supported by economic instruments. It also sets out the strengthening and expanding of financing, technical assistance, institutional capacity, governance, market access, and innovation and technology as a priority for Brazil in the coming years. Lula has set out combating deforestation as one of his main government plans, with deforestation hitting record lows during his administration . Lula will continue pushing for lower deforestation in his next term in 2027-2030, according to his government plan. Both deforestation and the transition away from fossil fuels will be part of the Brazil delegation's agenda at Cop 31, which begins next week in Antalya, Turkey. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Four countries have Hormuz exemptions: Iran lawmaker

06/11/26

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06/11/26

Four countries have Hormuz exemptions: Iran lawmaker

Dubai, 6 November (Argus) — Tehran has exempted four countries from restrictions it placed on shipping through the strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian lawmaker said this week, but the evidence does not appear to support this. Amir Hayat-Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, said India, China, Iraq and Qatar are "free [to pass]. And the US also does not impede them… [they can] go and come as they wish". His comments come as Iran continues to target commercial shipping in and around the strait of Hormuz, with at least one sailor killed in November. Hayat-Moqaddam gave no indication of how long the exemption arrangement has been in place, but tied each to a particular Iranian interest. "We have done this for the Indians so that we can bring in medications," he said. "We are doing this for the Chinese to secure their political support." He did elaborate on the reasons for exemptions offered to Iraq and Qatar. Iran has for months insisted that vessels only pass the strait using a northern corridor over which it claims control. Some vessels crossing with Iranian co-ordination are paying Tehran a fee, in the hope of securing safe passage, a shipbroker said. Hayat-Moqaddam says the fee arrangement applies also to those countries with exemptions. "We do still get paid," he said. "They pay us the toll, or fee, to cross, but also for oil we send." But he acknowledged that each of the four "has its own special circumstances." Several countries have said they secured exemptions from Iran since the war began , including Iraq. Yet Iraqi-linked vessels were targeted after that, and were included on Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) lists of vessels it said breached transit rules. Hayat-Moqaddam's claims have not been formally communicated or confirmed by either the Iranian government or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has tightened its grip on decision-making in the country since the outbreak of the war. A number of vessels linked to these four countries have been, and continue to be, targeted by Iran. An Indian national was killed in an attack on the Al Jusufi small cargo ship off the coast of Oman on 2 November, according to India's Ministry of External Affairs. Qatar Gas Transport Company (Nakilat) said on 1 November that its LNG carrier Al Mayeda was hit by unidentified objects while transiting the Mideast Gulf on the evening of 30 October. Details of regional very large crude carrier (VLCC) fixtures in particular are scarce, with many deals being done privately between charterer and owner. By Nader Itayim and Rhys van Dinther Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Midterms scramble Trump’s plans on Iran

06/11/26

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06/11/26

Midterms scramble Trump’s plans on Iran

Washington, 6 November (Argus) — Democrats' overwhelming victory in the 3 November midterm congressional elections may have upended President Donald Trump's plans to address the Iran war once the US political campaign came to an end. Trump, who had indicated he would no longer feel constrained over resuming large-scale hostilities with Iran after the midterms, has had to contend with unusual public criticism from his vice president JD Vance, who argued that the Republicans' rout at the poll was entirely because of the war. The Trump White House also has to spend political capital to stave off an attempt by the outgoing, majority-Republican House of Representatives to impeach defense secretary Pete Hegseth. Representative Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), a critic of both Trump and Hegseth, plans to force the House next week to vote to start impeachment proceedings against the Pentagon chief and can expect support from Democratic lawmakers and, perhaps, from some other Republicans. Dissatisfaction over the conduct of the war and its effects on the US and global economy had been building up in Congress even before the midterms. But the few Republican lawmakers who spoke out against the war mostly directed their ire at Hegseth, rather than Trump or senior military commanders. Hegseth in a video address on Thursday hit back at critics and defended his conduct of the war against Iran. Hegseth called Massie "a disgruntled, defeated congressman" and predicted that the impeachment attempt against him would fail just as two previous attempts to impeach Trump did. "It didn't work against President Trump, and it won't work with me," Hegseth said. "My Hegseth impeachment resolution is a much gentler version of what's coming when (the Democrats) control Congress," Massie said in response. Massie called on Trump to fire Hegseth and pick a replacement to be confirmed by the outgoing, majority-Republican Senate. Trump, who initially appeared non-committal about Hegseth's future, lent him support on Thursday. "Pete Hegseth has done a fantastic job," Trump told reporters on Thursday. "In Iran, we are there for seven months, and we control everything that we wanted to control." Expectations that the Democratic victory at the midterms would advance a peaceful resolution of the war helped lower WTI next-month futures by around 6pc in the past week. But the reality on the ground has not changed. Oil exports from the Mideast Gulf remain below pre-war levels despite the US military effort to de-bottleneck the strait of Hormuz. Tehran is insisting that Trump's administration implement the commitments it agreed to in the June memorandum of understanding, including on sanctions relief and the repatriation of frozen US assets. The lameduck Congress separately will have to vote on a White House request, submitted in July, for $67bn in emergency funding to pay for the Iran war. The cost of the war likely has climbed substantially higher since then. And the funding request does not cover the estimated damage to multiple US Army, naval and air force bases across the Middle East hit by Iranian missiles and drones since March. But any effort to reject the Pentagon's emergency funding request may not garner sufficient support. The measure aims to replenish US inventories of precision munitions, which have been heavily depleted during the war with Iran. That critical materiel is also used by Ukraine's military under a European-funded program, and keeping those stocks depleted at a time of heightened global tensions would be controversial. "It's important for the president, before we even cross over into the new Congress, to end this war in Iran," House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said on 4 November. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US adds 165,000 jobs in October, well above forecasts

06/11/26

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06/11/26

US adds 165,000 jobs in October, well above forecasts

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Trading firm BGN in talks for second LNG carrier

06/11/26

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06/11/26

Trading firm BGN in talks for second LNG carrier

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