War keeps Cop focus on transition, major deals unlikely

The supply crisis triggered by the US' war with Iran will keep energy transition discussions very much to the fore at this week's UN Cop 31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey — with electrification a central theme — but substantial new commitments on clean energy, fossil fuels and finance are unlikely.

Cop 31 president-designate Murat Kurum insists that the summit "will work to turn the commitments of past Cops into real results", and cutting fossil fuel emissions remains key to meeting the 1.5°C temperature rise limit pursued in the UN Paris agreement. But three years after that target was reinforced at Cop 28 in Dubai, where parties were also called on to transition away from fossil fuels, pollution from coal, oil and gas — which accounted for 74pc of carbon emissions last year — is still increasing.

The dual Cop 31 presidency — Turkey is presiding over the summit while Australia leads negotiations — has been open about the need to move away from fossil fuel dependency, especially as the world wrestles with the impact of disruption to Middle East oil and gas supply. But Australia and Turkey — the world's second-largest coal exporter and seventh-largest coal importer, respectively — have remained cautious in their framing of the transition in Cop communications, and fossil fuel discussions are likely to be confined to the sidelines.

Instead, Turkey has crafted a broad voluntary "35-by-35" global goal for electricity to reach 35pc of global final energy consumption by 2035, up from around 20pc now, which the IEA hopes will get the backing of Cop delegates.

Electrification talks are expected to remain informal, although disagreements could spill into official negotiations. Many European countries would like the goal to include a clean energy element, but others, including Russia and the Arab Group at the summit, see no need for new targets. Laurence Tubiana, chief executive of the European Climate Foundation and architect of the Paris agreement, does not expect clean energy language linked to the electrification target making it into the final Cop communique. But China's position will be key — Beijing "supports higher levels of electrification as part of the energy transition", environment vice-minister Li Gao says, while also noting "differing views among countries".

China has "a lot to gain as a leader in electrification", says Global Renewable Alliance chief executive Bruce Douglas, noting that the country has never before linked electrification "so strongly" to energy transition. But it is still unclear what role China — the world's largest emitter — wants to play. It could find itself at odds over trade and finance with the EU, which is looking to claw back benefits from the clean energy transition to bolster domestic industry.

Money talks

Finance is another potential stumbling block. The African Group at Cop has asked for an extra agenda item on adaptation finance, potentially sparking disagreement on day one. Last year's Cop summit agreed to triple adaptation finance for developing countries, but failed to make material progress. Antalya must be about "delivery, not another cycle of promises", African Group chair Antwi-Boasiako Amoah says. The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) cohort at Cop agrees that finance "must reach developing countries". The EU has signalled that it is "ready to deliver on existing commitment", while Australia launched a voluntary access to finance plan during a pre-Cop event organised with Pacific nations.

That event — which took international leaders to one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, Tuvalu — underlined the need to reinforce the 1.5°C goal, and LDCs and Island States have called for the temperature limit to be at the heart of the negotiations after pushback from some quarters at recent summits.

By Caroline Varin