Oregon could prime EV future with diesel phaseout

Market: Biofuels, Electricity, Emissions, Oil products
10/11/26

Diesel replacements could drive Oregon's electric transportation ambitions next decade.

Regulators this week will discuss steeper road fuel carbon cuts that rely in part on renewables pushing out nearly all petroleum diesel by as early as 2032. Targets as much as 50pc tougher than current requirements by 2030 could help pull in the lower-carbon alternatives needed to drive lasting transportation emissions reductions through the end of next decade.

Replacing 95pc of conventional diesel with renewable diesel and biodiesel would by 2040 help the state cut road fuel carbon intensity by half from 2015 levels. New Clean Fuels Program targets could drive the credit prices needed to attract the fuels and support electric replacements of passenger vehicles in the state, based on an analysis that fuel industry experts advising the state will review on Thursday.

Low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) require annual reductions in road fuel carbon intensity. Suppliers of higher-carbon fuels incur deficits they must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower carbon alternatives.

Department of Environmental Quality staff recommended the more aggressive of two options meeting governor Tina Kotek's (D) direction to slash road fuel carbon intensity by at least half by 2040.

Option B would accelerate annual carbon limits with a 6pc reduction in 2028 and 5pc reductions in 2029 and 2030, compared to the current annual 2pc declines. The proposal speeds reductions to account for current rising US renewable diesel supplies and Oregon electrification plans for the latter half of the next decade. Reduction requirements would slow after the initial drop to steadier 2pc annual declines from 2031-2040.

Option A extends a current steady pace of reductions, waiting to achieve most of its results from 2035-2040.

Tougher targets both increase deficits from conventional fuels and reduce the credit-generating potency of lower-carbon alternatives. Shrinking the allowed carbon intensity of road fuels ultimately pushes higher shares of electric transportation to meet requirements.

Recent Oregon data underlined the strength of market response to LCFS incentives. In the second quarter, the state for the first time replaced more than half of its liquid diesel pool with renewable alternatives as credit prices traded above $150/metric tonne (t). LCFS credits do not expire, and so the influx of lower-carbon fuel generated credits in excess of higher-carbon deficits that participants may bank for future compliance. Too much supply depresses credit prices and mutes the signal to deliver alternatives into the jurisdiction.

The state must also compete for barrels with larger fuel markets. Oregon enforces its LCFS alongside California and a newer Washington program. The state's roughly 53,000 b/d liquid diesel pool was less than 25pc of California's during the second quarter. California's renewable diesel use alone nearly tripled Oregon's total diesel consumption for the period. Oregon must balance elbowing in to larger shares of alternative fuels without hiking prices passed on to petroleum gasoline and diesel customers. Oregon credits added an implied 20¢/USG to petroleum diesel during the second quarter, trailing only Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations per-gallon prices for the period.

By Elliott Blackburn

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12/11/26

Cop: Airlines, developers grapple with Corsia shortfall

Antalya, 12 November (Argus) — Stakeholders in the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) credit market are concerned that an estimated supply gap of 200mn tonnes or more will not be bridged before the programme's first compliance deadline, but they differ sharply on how to address the issue. The first phase of Corsia ends this year, with airlines required to demonstrate compliance by the end of January 2028. But at this point, supply uncertainty is raising concerns about whether they will succeed. Some developers said the airlines need to get into the market now, which will lead to more project development to meet demand. The industry said it is dealing with surging fuel costs but will enter the market in time for compliance. Other factors are also complicating demand and supply, including uncertainty about whether the EU will expand its emissions trading system (ETS) to cover international aviation. "It might be the case that airlines are not necessarily thinking of buying their Corsia credits just yet," said Marie Owens Thomsen, senior vice president for sustainability at the International Air Transport Association, during an International Emissions Trading Association event at the UN Cop 31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. But a year out, the industry feels "an acute compliance anxiety" because of the projected shortfall, and as a result "we are here to beg the UNFCCC [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change] community and all the member states" to do what they can to "bring the missing 200mn t onto the market," she said. Some developers are skeptical of industry's reasons for waiting until the last minute to buy credits, pointing to the fact that some airlines are still making significant profits. "That to me should be a sign that they should go and buy some credits," DelAgua chief executive Euan McDougall said. But more credits are about to hit the market, as much as 25mn t from African nations, which should ease supply concerns, according to McDougall. "Demand is what needs to needs to come to the market now" to drive more project investment, he said. Complicating matters is the political uncertainty coming from the EU as it considers whether to include international aviation in its ETS. If it waits too long, airlines will be put in a difficult situation, according to Lev Gantly, a partner at the law firm Philip Lee in Dublin, Ireland, who advises on carbon market transactions. "It's completely unacceptable that the EU, we're 14 months away from the deadline, are still here without a decision", he said. Some developers have suggested that more pressure from governments in the form of non-compliance fees could push airlines into the Corsia market quickly. "The stick at this point is necessary," McDougall said. But the threat of penalties at this point may not do much unless supply shows up in the market, according to Owens Thomsen. "We hope...that we will have the missing 200 million when the airlines are obliged to comply, but we do not know that", she said. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Article 6 reporting improvements sought

12/11/26

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12/11/26

Cop: Article 6 reporting improvements sought

Antalya, 12 November (Argus) — UN climate negotiators are content to leave the current rules for Article 6 of the Paris agreement in place until 2028, despite concerns about "inconsistencies" that have been found in initial reports from countries wanting to use carbon credits to meet their goals. Instead, new guidance for report reviewers and countries might help cut down on the issues, according to two Article 6 negotiators at the UN Cop 31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. "There is no appetite at this Cop, and it wouldn't be in line with our [previous Cop] decisions," said Simon Fellermeyer, policy advisor in Switzerland's Federal Office for the Environment, during an International Emissions Trading Association event on Wednesday. Switzerland is one of the leading users of international carbon offset credits under Article 6.2, which are known as internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (Itmos). The country has 16 bilateral agreements in place to date. UN negotiators finalised the Article 6 rulebook two years ago at Cop 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, with an agreement not to revisit it until 2028. A review undertaken by the UN found a range of issues , such as insufficient baselines and a lack of alignment between carbon activities and countries' climate plans, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Fellermeyer said he is not yet concerned by the inconstancies, which could just be signs of growing pains as Article 6 markets develop and the review processes mature. "There are a lot of inconsistencies," he said, adding that hearing about them raises questions about whether there is something wrong with the system. "I think it's too early to tell", he said. Better guidance for reviewers could help cut down on any potential issues, according to Cristina Figueroa, carbon markets coordinator with Chile's environment ministry. "I completely agree with Simon, we don't need to reopen the rulebook of Article 6 now, but we still need more clarity of guidelines to the reviewers on what we will weigh", she said. For example, there is still some uncertainty about what is considered an inconsistency, according to Figueroa, who said that recommendations for improving the process have been marked as such by reviewers. Outside groups, though, say the issues are much more concerning, as certain errors or missing information could undermine the credibility of the emissions reductions authorized by countries for use in Article 6 as well that of their NDCs. "This goes beyond trivial errors", Isa Mulder of Carbon Market Watch told negotiators earlier this week during an Article 6 dialogue at the Cop. The group has made a number of recommendations to improve the process, such as having parties submit their reports before Itmo authorisation to allow for corrections that would be difficult to make after authorization. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Singapore I-RECs hit 2026-high on standards update

12/11/26

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12/11/26

Singapore I-RECs hit 2026-high on standards update

Singapore, 12 November (Argus) — Singapore 2026 vintage solar I-RECs have reached their highest levels this year in early November, following a revision to national standards and rising corporate demand. Argus assessed 2026 vintage solar I-RECs at $28.50/MWh on 5 November, above the previous peak of $26/MWh on 22 January. The price has been rising since mid-September on higher demand. But the latest weekly increase, at $2.75/MWh, was the steepest since January (see graph) . Singapore revised its SS673 voluntary national code for renewable energy certificates (RECs) at the end of October, recommending companies to use only certificates from domestic generation or from renewable power imports for scope 2 claims. The previous iteration of SS673 from 2021 recognised southeast Asian certificates more broadly, prompting Singaporean companies to use lower-priced regional I-RECs. In January-October this year, 82pc of the 3.5TWh of I-RECs redeemed in Singapore were issued from Vietnamese renewable power generation not contractually supplied to Singapore. The revised SS673 limits companies adopting the standard to using only Singaporean certificates in the near term. Large-scale renewable power imports into Singapore would likely start from 2029, if projects in southern Malaysia come to fruition. Import projects from Indonesia's Riau Islands were due to start from 2028, but recent political roadblocks will likely delay progress. Singaporean REC buyers are expected to factor in tighter availability next year and seek to secure supplies early, chief commercial officer at Singapore environmental commodities exchange Climate Impact X Ellery Sutanto told Argus . Offers for 2027 vintage solar certificates are currently around S$45/MWh ($38.96/MWh), above offers of S$40-44/MWh this week for 2026 vintage contracts. Uncertain trajectory But the demand trajectory for Singapore I-RECs remains uncertain. SS673 is a voluntary standard and companies are considering future engagement with the revised guidelines, as Singaporean I-RECs are priced at a high premium to regional markets. Some firms have existing multi-year supply deals for Vietnamese I-RECs, and retaining these contracts could mean delaying procurement of Singaporean certificates. Argus assessed Vietnamese 2026 vintage solar I-RECs at $0.25/MWh on 5 November, over 100 times lower than equivalent Singaporean certificates. The revised SS673 standard does not rule on whether companies can grandfather existing southeast Asian REC contracts. Nonetheless, some participants say alignment to the revised SS673, and corporate demand for Singapore I-RECs, will rise because of investor pressure to align decarbonisation efforts with sustainability standards. Companies facing less investor pressure could "think twice" about buying Singapore I-RECs, given they are already being squeezed by higher electricity prices this year, but this represents a small pool of buyers and "will not materially soften demand for Singapore RECs", co-founder of Singapore environmental services firm Reduc, Chuck Chen, told Argus . "Corporate demand for RECs is mainly driven by reporting requirements and climate commitments, and those have not changed," Sutanto said. And Singapore recently introduced corporate income tax deductions on voluntary use of RECs aligned with the updated SS673, which could further boost demand. Tax deductions on environmental commodities were previously only applicable for procurement of carbon credits for compliance purposes. Unique demand patterns I-REC demand in Singapore has been structurally higher than local supply in recent years, given the high concentration of business headquarters in the city-state, and small land area to deploy renewables at scale. Singaporean I-REC supply was 429GWh in January-October this year, eight times lower than total domestic redemptions, but consumption of Singaporean I-RECs was just 241GWh considering the high volume of imported certificates (see chart) . Still, several rounds of buy tenders for Singapore RECs have taken place recently, some of which were above 50GWh. These tenders are drawing down supply of local RECs at a time when corporate procurement is accelerating. In most other southeast Asian markets, I-REC demand is predominantly for locally generated certificates. Most markets are also facing certificate oversupply, as I-REC output outpaces companies setting decarbonisation targets and procuring certificates to make scope 2 emissions reduction claims. By Liang Lei Singapore solar I-REC assessed prices ($/MWh) Singapore I-REC issuances and redemptions, January-October 2026 (GWh) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Maritime Commission calls for IMO NZF changes

11/11/26

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11/11/26

US Maritime Commission calls for IMO NZF changes

New York, 11 November (Argus) — The US is calling for changes to the proposed net-zero framework (NZF) by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and is pushing for LNG and biofuels to be recognised as viable fuel pathways for shipping decarbonisation. The US will not support any net-zero fund within the IMO's proposed NZF, and will vote against the current proposal under consideration, US Maritime Commission president Laura DiBella said. Speaking at the IBIA Convention in New York, DiBella said the framework — which is scheduled for further consideration at the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 85 meeting later this month — is not technology neutral and requires significant revisions. IMO member states should continue submitting amendments to the proposal, adding that some alternative approaches already submitted by member countries could be considered by the US delegation, DiBella said. DiBella also called for LNG, bio-LNG, ethanol and biodiesel to be recognised as viable pathways for shipping decarbonisation, arguing that these fuels currently offer the strongest prospects for availability, scalability and competitiveness. Alternatives such as ammonia and methanol lack sufficient scalability and should not be treated as the primary fuels for the maritime energy transition, she added. "The current net-zero framework seeks to move shipping away from oil in an artificial and anti-competitive manner," DiBella said. By Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Philanthropies commit $85mn to forest fund

11/11/26

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11/11/26

Philanthropies commit $85mn to forest fund

Sao Paulo, 11 November (Argus) — Philanthropies pledged $85mn to Brazil's Tropical Forest Forever Facility on Wednesday during the UN Cop 31 climate summit held in Antalya, Turkey. The groups include the Bacon Foundation, Children's Investment Foundation, Conservation International, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Minderoo Foundation , Quadrature Charitable Foundation and The Nature Conservancy. The groups did not specify a timeline for the investment. TFFF — launched at Cop 30 held in Brazil in November 2025 — aims to preserve tropical global forests and help pay around 80 developing countries $4/hectare (ha) for preserved tropical forests. The goal is to raise $125bn to protect 1bn ha (10mn km²) of tropical forests globally. The fund expected to reach $10bn in investments this year. It has raised $7.8bn so far from different international partnerships, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Wednesday during a speech at the Cop 31 leaders' summit. "The world recognizes the value of forests, but it is still not willing to pay for their protection at the scale needed," Lula said. The philanthropies are urging other funders and governments to back the fund so it can reach its 2026 goal. TFFF is backed by 67 countries plus the EU. That group holds 90pc of the world's tropical forests, according to TFFF. By Mariana Funchal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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