London, 10 May (Argus) — Opec has revised up its forecast call on its members crude in 2013 by 100,000 b/d to 29.8mn b/d in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
The revision, just ahead of the 31 May meeting of ministers, takes the forecast call close to the 30mn b/d ceiling that members again agreed to adhere to when they last met in December 2012. But is below Argus estimates of Opec production in April of 30.59mn b/d.
And while lack of data from Iran, Qatar, and Venezuela means a total Opec April production figure derived from member countries is not available, Kuwait reported a 245,000 b/d rise in production, while Saudi Arabia said it increased its output by 173,000 b/d. Angola's output fell by 38,000 b/d and the UAE's production also fell, by 30,500 b/d. Algeria, Nigeria and Libya also reported minor falls in production.
Call on Opec crude for 2012 has been revised up by 100,000 b/d to 30.2mn b/d.
Opec's global oil demand growth forecast for 2013 remains unchanged from last month's projection of 800,000 b/d. Global oil demand for the year is expected to be 89.7mn b/d according to the latest MOMR.
Chinese oil demand is expected to increase in this quarter because of higher oil consumption in the agricultural sector, although any rise will be limited by the slower economic growth in the region. Chinese oil consumption grew by 330,000 b/d last year and is expected to increase by 350,000 b/d this year, unchanged from last month's projection.
“A fragile recovery in the global economy has been visible since the beginning of the year, but momentum has started slowing again and growth risks are skewed to the downside,” the report said.
Global oil demand growth last year was pegged at 770,000 b/d a 20,000 b/d reduction compared with the previous MOMR.
Non-Opec supply is forecast to grow by 980,000 b/d in 2013 to 53.96mn b/d, representing an upward revision of 20,000 b/d from last month's report.
The outlook for non-Opec production growth last year was revised up by 22,000 b/d from last month's MOMR to 530,000 b/d. The OECD Americas region was responsible for the bulk of the growth, with a supply increase of 1.2mn b/d, offset by Europe's growth contraction.
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