Afferro Mining upbeat on iron ore prices

Market: Metals
29/08/13

London 29 August — Toronto-listed Afferro Mining has a “favourable” outlook for iron ore prices, despite slower growth in China, and is continuing to develop projects in Cameroon ahead of its planned acquisition by Aim-listed International Mining and Infrastructure (Imic).

Afferro Mining forecasts that iron ore producers will struggle to meet demand in the medium term, despite slower Chinese growth and the on-going stagnation of European consumption. India's steel demand is forecast to rise, and although it is self-sufficient in iron ore, the demand increase is expected to remove supply from the seaborne market. And sustained support for prices will ensure that lower-grade iron ore deposits and schemes with higher capital expenditures are still considered economical, the mining company said.

Afferro's planned acquisition by Imic remains on schedule for completion by 29 September. Imic will acquire Afferro's four iron ore mining projects — all located in Cameroon — and has already signed infrastructure development agreements with China Railways Eryuan Engineering (a subsidiary of state-owned China Railway Group) and state-owned China Railway Materials subsidiary CRM (Hong Kong) for the flagship Nkout scheme.

A Nkout pre-feasibility study will be launched later this year. Nkout has indicated reserves of 1.6bn t at 33.3pc Fe and a further 900mn t of inferred ore at 30.8pc Fe. The total includes higher-grade ore, with 64.3mn t at a 54.5pc Fe content and a further 8.2mn t at 50.1pc Fe. The developer expects to start production in the second half of 2017, with expected output of 15mn-35mn t/yr. The iron ore deposit is 30km from a proposed rail corridor and 330km from the Kribi deep-water port, which Cameroon's government is building.

Afferro's exploration program at Ntem is said to be “under review”. The Ntem site has 39.1mn of indicated resources with an average Fe content of 34pc. The developer also has exploration licences at Akonolinga and Ngoa, although Afferro is waiting to have its Akonolinga rights renewed. The company plans to start exploratory drilling programs at both Ngoa and Akonolinga next year.

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18/12/25

Traders offer CBAM paid import at discount to NW EU HRC

London, 18 December (Argus) — Some traders are starting to offer imported hot-rolled coil at varying discounts to Argus ' benchmark north EU HRC index inclusive of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), suggesting they do not believe they will have to pay default values for the material. One trader was this week offering Indian HRC at a discount of €10/t to the monthly average of the Argus index for May 2026. Indian fixed-price cfr offers are around €470/t, while April is currently trading around €665/t on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract, for which Argus ' index is the cash-settlement basis. This suggests the trader believes it will not have to pay default values for the material; India's default value of 4.7t and the relevant benchmark of 1.37 would imply a CBAM cost of almost €270/t and an all-in cost of €740/t, assuming a carbon price of €80/t. Another trader reportedly offered Indonesian material at a steeper discount to the index for April arrival. Indonesia's default value of over 9t, against the benchmark of 1.37/t, would imply a carbon cost alone of over €617/t, suggesting it also assumes it will not pay the default value. The mill in question has informed market participants its direct emissions intensity is around 1.2t. The offers suggest, unsurprisingly, traders expect CBAM costs to be factored into the domestic market price, as reflected by Argus ' index. They also suggest traders believe domestic material will retain a premium to imports: at a recent Eurometal conference in Dusseldorf, some buyers suggested domestic material from one or two mills may in effect become the marginal tonne, as CBAM increases import costs. Increased complexity in importing — predominantly driven by CBAM and revisions to the EU safeguard — is steadily pushing the market towards buying on delivered duty paid terms, meaning buyers run no duty risk. This is typically being absorbed by traders. Most ddp offers have risen in recent weeks, in response to a flurry of leaked CBAM documents. Traders had been offering around €570/t ddp a few weeks back, but these offers have now mainly climbed to €600-620t ddp, reflecting more prohibitive default values and an expectation that prices will rise in the first quarter, enabling traders to book more profit. There was an offer reported yesterday at €585/t ddp Antwerp from Asia for April-May. The origin of the material was unclear, but some said it was from Vietnam. The rise in ddp offer volumes and prices has led to an increase in trading on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract in the last week or two. A 15,000t deal traded on 16 December for the fourth quarter of 2026 at €684/t, which derivatives traders said was likely an attractive buying price. Over the first three days of this week, around 36,700t traded on the CME contract, compared with just over 41,000t the whole of last week and 11,260t the preceding week. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe

17/12/25

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17/12/25

Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe

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On the surface, the rally appeared to signal a classic supply crunch, driven by mine disruptions at assets such as Grasberg, in Indonesia, and Kamoa-Kakula, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and structurally strong demand from grids, electrification and data centres. But the deeper story was more complex. Demand growth was uneven. China's apparent consumption slowed sharply in the second half of the year as stimulus effects faded, while manufacturing activity in Europe remained weak. Yet prices continued to rise, reflecting not so much booming end-use demand as a geopolitical and logistical reshaping of supply. The decisive factor was the growing pull of copper into the US market on the threat of import tariffs on refined copper. The widening price premium on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) contract relative to the LME opened a powerful arbitrage that drew metal out of LME warehouses and, by extension, away from Europe. By late 2025, CME stocks accounted for more than half of global exchange inventories, while LME registered stocks fell below 100,000t at points — levels historically associated with acute tightness in deliverable supply. For Europe, this mattered more than headline global balances. Even as total exchange inventories rose above 700,000t worldwide, availability became tighter in non-US regions, pushing spot and term premiums sharply higher. LME-CME arbitrage: the key swing factor The LME-CME arbitrage, which is governed by several interlinked factors — relative interest rates, currency moves, logistics costs, warehouse accessibility and above all, US trade policy — is expected to remain in 2026. As long as the CME price commands a premium of several hundred dollars per tonne over the LME, the incentive to ship metal into the US persists. In 2025, that premium regularly exceeded estimated freight and financing costs, keeping the arbitrage wide open. 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CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing

17/12/25

News

17/12/25

CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing

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Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

17/12/25

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17/12/25

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

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Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil

16/12/25

News

16/12/25

Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil

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Afferro Mining upbeat on iron ore prices

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