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Latest market news

Morgan Stanley cuts coking coal price outlook

  • Market: Coking coal, Metals
  • 08/10/14

US bank Morgan Stanley lowered its 2015 hard coking coal price forecast by $8/t and warned that a slower-than-expected price recovery puts liquidity-constrained US producers like Walter Energy and Arch Coal at particular risk.

Morgan Stanley forecasts an average hard coking coal price next year of $125/t, down from its prior forecast of $133/t, and lower than the current fourth quarter settlement price of $119/t agreed upon between Australian producers and Japanese steelmakers.

"As a result of a shallower expected met coal price recovery next year, timing risk is intensifying for liquidity-constrained producers," the bank said, naming Walter, Arch and Alpha Natural Resources.

"While evidence points to a bottom for metallurgical coal prices, the recovery will take longer and be weaker than our previous forecasts," the bank said.

The bank estimates that about 25mn t of coking coal output curtailments have been announced so far this year. It cited about 10.5mn t of cutbacks announced in the US, 7.8mn t in Australia and 5mn t in Canada.

It said many of the announced cuts are expected to take effect next year, "as operations wind down and destocking concludes."

The bank said it continues to "expect a rebound" next year in coking coal prices as the supply cuts take effect, Australian capacity growth plateaus and Chinese inventories move lower.

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News
23/12/25

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

Mexico City, 23 December (Argus) — Mexico's trade surplus widened slightly in November from the previous month, despite sharp declines in both exports and imports in the non-oil category. Mexico posted a $663mn trade surplus in November, statistics agency Inegi said, up from a $606mn surplus in October, though on lower overall trade volumes. Total exports reached $56.4bn, while imports stood at $55.7bn, compared with $66.1bn and $65.5bn, respectively, in October. The result contrasted with the $391mn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. Inegi attributed the wider surplus to an increase in the non-oil trade surplus to $2.84bn in November from $2.74bn in October, alongside a widening of the oil trade deficit to $2.18bn from $2.13bn. Within non-oil trade, manufacturing exports fell by 16pc to $52.1bn in November from the prior month, while automotive exports declined by 2.2pc to $15.8bn, following a 4.8pc increase in October. The US absorbed 79pc of Mexico's light vehicle exports from January-November, with Mexico supplying 17pc of total US auto imports over the 11-month period, according to Mexican auto industry association AMDA. The "others" component of non-oil manufacturing exports dropped by 20pc to $36.3bn in November, nearly erasing October's 23pc gain to $45.5bn. The cumulative impact of US tariffs on Mexican goods is becoming clearer. Mexican bank Banco Base estimates the US levied an effective 4.69pc tariff on Mexican goods through September — below the 25pc blanket rate due to exemptions for goods complying with the USMCA free trade agreement. "The low tariffs have allowed Mexican exports to continue growing, particularly computer equipment, which rose by 83.39pc year to date through September compared with the same period in 2024, with a tariff of just 0.17pc," the bank said. Those "contrast sharply with passenger cars, which face a 15.29pc tariff," which maintain expectations of 7pc annual export growth in 2025, according to the bank. Agricultural exports rose by 3.8pc to $1.4bn in November after increases of 7.2pc in October and 4.1pc in September. Oil-related exports totaled $1.55bn in November, down from $1.82bn in October, including $1.03bn in crude and $514mn in refined products on lower prices and volumes. Mexico's crude export basket averaged $57.66/bl, down by $0.84/bl from October and $8.09/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 597,000 b/d in November from 717,000 b/d in October, remaining well below the 1.088mn b/d exported in November 2024. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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News

Viewpoint: EU safeguards may shift FeSi, Si demand

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

Viewpoint: EU safeguards may shift FeSi, Si demand

London, 23 December (Argus) — New European Commission safeguard measures will support ferro-silicon prices in 2026, but they will also drive increased substitution of the alloy with silicon metal. The commission imposed safeguard measures on manganese alloys, ferro-silicon and ferro-silico-magnesium on 18 November. The safeguard measures comprise tariff-rate quotas and out-of-quota variable duties. Imports in excess of the quota are subject to an out-of-quota variable duty that is the difference between the established price threshold and the actual import price. The commission has imposed an established price threshold of $2,408/t on ferro-silicon. This is more than double the average Argus assessment of $1,371/t ddp NWE as of 12 December. Market gains clarity after a tumultuous 2025 The safeguard investigation that led to the implementation of safeguards drove several extreme spikes in volatility in the ferro-silicon market over the course of 2025. Rare updates on the safeguard process, sudden bursts of speculation and delays led to periods with sharp surges in imports and transactions and then periods with almost no liquidity, as market participants waited for news from the commission. As a result, ferro-silicon prices were volatile across the year, with buyers and sellers alike unsure how to react. Market participants, particularly trading firms, bemoaned their inability to carry out advanced planning. Prices rose in the first quarter, as market participants stocked up on third-country material in expectation of an announcement from the commission by April. When no outcome was announced, prices decreased from March-June. Prices rose sharply in late July and early August because of speculation that the announcement was forthcoming, and then plummeted again for September, October and much of November. Safeguards to drive higher prices, volatility in 2026 After the announcement of the new measures on 18 November, prices jumped by almost $300/t and have since remained at around and slightly above $1,500/t. Most market participants expect prices to stay at current levels or higher in the coming year. But continued volatility is expected. The new quota system, which renews every three months, is expected to result in altered purchasing habits as material enters the European market in bursts after the quotas renew. In this first three months of the safeguard measures, many of the quotas have been utilised more slowly than market participants expected. Some are still not full. But that has been attributed in part to hesitation from importers to try out the new system and in part due to low demand from end-users, which stocked up ahead of 18 November and are not buying in large quantities at present. One steel producer continues to refrain from buying and has been holding off since before the safeguards took effect, a senior executive at the company told Argus . Many market participants expect a more rapid utilisation of the available quotas in the first and second quarters of 2026, as industry players adapt to the new dynamics and consumers work through much of their existing stocks. Significant quantities of ferro-silicon are expected to enter Europe over the days that immediately follow the start of each new period. For consumers and importers, supply chain management has become significantly more complex and requires newly advanced planning. Importers now have more customs exposure, increasing their risk. Silicon substitution may increase Silicon metal can be substituted for ferro-silicon in many steel applications, although the deoxidisation provided by ferro-silicon cannot be completely replicated using silicon metal and iron powder. Silicon metal has not been included in the safeguards, despite a strong desire for it to be subject to the measures from many ferro-alloy producers. Euroalliages, the main ferro-alloys industry association, [sought]( https://metals.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2752028) the inclusion of safeguards in the initial measures. And major European ferro-alloys producer Ferroglobe continues to call for protectionist measures on silicon. But with silicon currently not subject to any such measures, consumers are likely to purchase silicon in place of ferro-silicon when it makes sense to do so on cost. Substitution is already taking place. Multiple large tenders after the implementation of safeguards went to silicon metal rather than ferro-silicon, a ferro-silicon producer told Argus . "As a manufacturer, we see it as an inconvenience that the customer gets used to using alternative products, and we are trying to avoid that by not pushing very high prices," the producer said. The substitution possibility is likely to put a ceiling on ferro-silicon prices below that of the minimum import price in 2026. If out-of-quota material is too expensive, consumers will turn to silicon metal, reducing demand for ferro-silicon and holding prices lower. "Price dynamics will be following silicon metal instead of market supply and demand. It will be silicon metal substitution that will be the price setter, and that is far below the ferro-silicon market," the producer said. But there is ongoing speculation that anti-dumping procedures for silicon metal are being prepared by the commission. If implemented, silicon metal would be more expensive than ferro-silicon from certain origins, which would reduce the substitution effect and support higher ferro-silicon prices. By Maeve Flaherty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US economy expands by 4.3pc in 3Q

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

US economy expands by 4.3pc in 3Q

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — The US economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, reflecting increases in consumer spending, exports and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 4.3pc annual rate in the third quarter, according to the first of three estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That compared with 3.8pc growth in the second quarter and a contraction of 0.6pc in the first quarter. The US GDP growth beat the expectations of analysts surveyed by Trading Economics, who were forecasting growth of 3.3pc. Because of the partial federal government shutdown that ended on 12 November, this initial report for the third quarter replaces the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for 30 October and the second estimate originally scheduled for 26 November. The report showed that consumer spending continued to fuel the economic expansion, as President Donald Trump retracted or softened some of his announced tariffs. Federal Reserve policymakers expect only one quarter point rate cut next year, as they see GDP growth ending next year at 2.3pc, Consumer spending rose by 3.5pc in the third quarter, following 2.5pc growth in the second quarter. Gross private domestic investment fell by an annual 0.3pc following a 13.8pc decline in the second quarter. Residential investment fell by an annual 5.1pc for a second quarter, as construction and purchases remained constrained by high interest rates. Equipment investment rose by an annual 5.4pc, reflecting spending in artificial intelligence. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 2.8pc, accelerating from 2.1pc in the second quarter and well off the Fed's long-term target of 2pc. Exports rose by 8.8pc after a 1.8pc contraction in the prior quarter. Imports fell by 4.7pc after more than a 29pc annual decline in the second quarter. Imports subtract from growth. Net trade added 1.6 percentage points to the headline number. The "massive" contribution to headline growth from net trade "reflected goods imports continuing to slide, while exports remain resilient," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. "That partly is due to the very limited retaliation to the tariffs from most trade partners, although the scale of the net trade boost to growth in (the third quarter) is unlikely to be sustained." Government spending rose by 2.2pc after a 0.1pc decline in the second quarter. Defense spending rose by 5.8pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: US FeTi to stagnate on oversupply in 2026

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

Viewpoint: US FeTi to stagnate on oversupply in 2026

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — An expected influx of ferro-titanium to the US is likely to continue to pressure prices in 2026 after imports surged this year, driven largely by weakness in the European steel market. Overseas ferro-titanium producers — facing lackluster demand in Europe — sought to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity increasingly beginning in June, as offtake remained stronger in the US. European steel association Eurofer attributed the weakness in the European steel industry to declines in consumption from automotive and construction sectors because of volatility caused by the US's 15pc tariff on imports of EU-produced cars and heightened global tensions over country-specific tariffs. Ongoing economic uncertainty brought on by the tariffs restrained growth opportunities in manufacturing as trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions rose, according to Eurofer. US imports of ferro-titanium increased during the January-September period by 18.6pc to 1,804 metric tonnes (t) compared with the same year-prior period, according to the most recent data from the US Department of Commerce, which was delayed by the partial US government shutdown. Imports from top suppliers the UK and Canada dipped down by 10.6pc and 7.2pc, respectively, to 669t and 335t. Meanwhile, imports from Latvia surged 148pc to 447t, the largest increase, and metal began to trickle in more competitively from South Korea and Poland. The September data shows an increase of 119pc to 217t in imports from a year earlier. Five-year low prices persist Sell-side sources told Argus they hope the market has found its floor but remained concerned about ongoing weak European demand, should the pattern of offloading supply to the US continue into next year. Argus last assessed North American ferro-titanium prices at $2.15-2.30/lb fob warehouse on 18 December, down by 25pc from the beginning of the year and at a five-year low. Argus last assessed European ferro-titanium prices at $4.30-4.60/kg ($1.95-2.09/lb) on 18 December, down 26.4pc from the beginning of the year and also at a five-year low. US sellers expressed frustration and difficulty in booking spot sales. One trader cited persistent, unsustainably low prices as reasoning for exiting the ferro-titanium market altogether, with few expectations the market would rebound in the near future. Some sellers have opted to sit on their stocks, waiting for demand from cored-wire producers and mills to rebound in the new year, which is leading to a build-up of metal. Because of storage fees and other carrying costs, domestic traders said they would be unable to make a profit at the assessed range, aiming to offer in the range of $2.35-2.45/lb warehouse, but acknowledged no buying interest at those levels. During contract negotiations for 2026, some sellers incorporated price floors into their quotes in anticipation an oversupply of metal could further weigh on prices. Sellers repeatedly tied the health of the US ferro-titanium market to European mill demand, stating there would be no turnaround in US prices until offtake abroad picks up. Eurofer projected apparent steel consumption would recover slowly in 2026 but not before the first quarter. Possible tariff change could halt imports Efforts by US producers could relieve pressure, should Commerce back them. Domestic ferro-alloy producer Galt Alloys on 15 May asked Commerce to add ferro-titanium to the Section 232 national security tariffs on steel imports. The request was denied by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on 1 August because the agency was already investigating the security implications of the US's ferro-titanium supply chains under a separate Section 232 investigation for processed critical minerals which is due to be finalized by mid-January. BIS is expected to provide a report with policy recommendations which could include tariffs to President Donald Trump once it finishes the investigation. Currently, ferro-titanium has a general duty rate of 3.7pc. By Jenna Baer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

23/12/25
News
23/12/25

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

Sao Paulo, 23 December (Argus) — Foreign miners eyeing Chile's world-leading lithium reserves may benefit from right-wing president-elect Jose Antonio Kast's victory on 14 December, while a key approval eases uncertainty about a pending deal between lithium producer SQM and state-owned mining company Codelco. Kast, Chile's new president plans to overhaul the national lithium strategy , which dates from outgoing left-wing president Gabriel Boric's administration. This adds to Kast's pro-market campaign promise to streamline the approval process for mining permits aiming to expedite investments in copper and lithium. If the newly elected president keeps his word, foreign companies could get access to Chile's large lithium reserves more easily, rekindling development of its stagnant lithium industry . Chile's restrictive lithium laws make it difficult for companies to operate independently, as 1979 legislation classifies lithium as a nuclear material, meaning firms can only mine it after obtaining a special operating contract known as a CEOL — which can take years to be approved. Under Boric's lithium strategy, companies seeking to explore lithium resources in the Atacama region must also form a joint venture (JV) with a state-owned Chilean firm, on top of securing the CEOL, further complicating entry for private and foreign investors. Kast has repeatedly said that he would make lithium "concessionable," meaning it would cease to be a nuclear material, which is subject to increased oversight. This would allow interested companies to extract it through a regular concession with a new, streamlined approval process, thus facilitating foreign investment and overruling Boric's CEOL-based lithium strategy. For that to happen, he would need to alter a pair of clauses of the national mining code, rectifying the changes through law. He has the full support of Chile's mining chamber to do so, but any changes would have to go through both congress and the senate, where his allies are a minority. Changing the national lithium strategy might not be a priority itself for Kast, but it can be bundled into his larger project of boosting mining through streamlined permitting and tax cuts, something he wants to achieve in his first 18 months in office. Kast takes the presidential seat on 11 March, but the governmental transition began on 15 December, a day after the election. Chile, the world's second-largest lithium producer, has failed to establish any new lithium extraction projects other than those of Albemarle and SQM, which have dominated the domestic industry since 1984 and 1997, respectively. It has long been Latin America's leading lithium producer, but some forecasts see Argentina catching up by 2030 . Albemarle and SQM will continue to be the only producers in Chile until at least 2032, when Rio Tinto is scheduled to begin production at its Altoandinos project , or in the event that SQM's project changes hands. Chilean exports of lithium carbonate and hydroxide declined nominally in 2025 through November to 235,365 metric tonnes (t), down from 240,237t in the same period in 2024, according to customs data. SQM-Codelco almost clear of risk despite election Although Kast has publicly opposed the SQM-Codelco joint venture, he has said he would honor the agreement if it is legally signed by the time he takes office, a condition that now appears close to being met. Chile's comptroller general's office (CGR) has acknowledged the legality of the contracts that underpin the partnership between Chilean private company SQM and state-owned miner Codelco, which would allow SQM to continue lithium exploration in the Atacama salt flats until 2060. CGR's acknowledgement was the last external approval that the joint venture needed to materialize. Codelco said that it and SQM will now move forward to the deal's closing stages. The deal still could be overturned if the companies fail to close by 11 March, but that risk is slim. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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