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  • 3 August 2026
  • Market: Carbon Markets, Net Zero

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) remains Europe’s cornerstone tool for carbon pricing — but policymakers, industrial sectors and energy firms now face significant uncertainty as reforms reshape allowance supply, sector scope and compliance strategies.

In this paper, Argus examines the critical questions defining the next phase for the EU ETS:

  • How will the proposed 2040 target and reforms influence allowance supply and pricing through 2030?
  • What are the implications of phasing out free allocation and implementing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)?
  • How will the inclusion of maritime emissions, and the introduction of ETS2 for buildings and transport, affect carbon price dynamics?
  • What role will the Innovation and Modernization Funds play in supporting decarbonisation in hard-to-abate sectors?
  • How are industrial and power market participants adjusting procurement strategies amid tighter caps and volatile prices?

Download the Insight paper

About Argus Media

As a leading authority on energy and commodity markets across the globe, Argus is uniquely positioned to provide in-depth analysis and expert thought leadership. Our white papers are carefully written by Argus specialists from across our company. Each white paper focuses on a topical theme, exploring areas such supply and demand dynamics, price trends, trading activity and changing regulations. We always aim to provide a balanced view, underpinned by data and insight gathered first hand from the market.