EU oilseeds overview: from oversupply to undersupply?
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US ag groups eye biofuels, exports to drive demand
US ag groups eye biofuels, exports to drive demand
Houston, 3 March (Argus) — US agricultural trade groups are focused on evolving domestic biofuels policy and diversifying export markets as key drivers for soybean and corn demand in the coming year. Finalizing biofuel blending quotas under the Renewable Fuel Standard was highlighted as a top priority by American Soybean Association (ASA) president Scott Metzger during the Commodity Classic conference in San Antonio, Texas, last week. "Soybean farmers urgently need biofuel policies finalized to boost domestic demand for soybeans and soybean oil," Metzger said in a press conference on 25 February. "ASA continues, urging [the] administration to focus on finalizing priorities that create preference for soy-based biofuel feedstocks and reduce reliance on foreign feedstocks that distort markets and harm US farmers." Metzger later added that he is hopeful the biomass-based diesel portion of the blending quota falls between 5.2bn and 5.6bn USG for 2026. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reaffirmed yesterday that it expects to finalize quotas by the end of March, which were projected at 5.61bn USG for 2026 and 5.86bn USG for 2027 in the EPA's initial proposal last June. Corn and sorghum trade group leaders also made calls for more clarity on biofuel incentives. National Corn Growers' Association president Jed Bower and National Sorghum Producers' chair Amy France both advocated for legislation that allows year-round sales of 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15), typically restricted in the summer months because of smog rules without emergency regulatory waivers. A council of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives has struggled to come to an agreement on E15 legislation, pressured in part by oil refiners that opposed earlier bill drafts for limiting the exemptions they can win from costly federal biofuel blend mandates. ASA vice president Dave Walton also expressed support for year-round E15, but pointed to the complex politics of any E15 bill by saying that any proposal should not come at the cost of reduced demand for biomass-based diesel. More ethanol consumption in the US could reduce demand for other biofuels that count toward annual blend requirements. "Some of the proposals that are out there on the table now are a plus for E15, but there's a potential negative in there for biodiesel," Walton said. Exports need more opportunities In addition to discussions on US biofuel policies, continued growth of soybean exports to new and existing markets was emphasized as a second facet of soybean demand in the year ahead. "Being able to work on new and emerging markets — we had a trade deal that was done with Indonesia," Metzger said. "We want to continue that and try to open up new markets as well." The trade deal with Indonesia — finalized last month — includes an agreement to import at least 3.5mn metric tonnes (t) per year of soybeans and 3.8mn t/yr of soybean meal from the US for five years. There is optimism that other countries can absorb some soybean demand should China not increase its purchases for 2025-26 to 20mn t , US Soy Export Council (USSEC) CEO Jim Sutter said. Pakistan in particular is viewed as a growing destination for US soybeans. So far this year, Pakistan has purchased 1.09mn t of US soybeans, according to US Department of Agriculture data, the most since the country imported 1.54mn t during the 2017-2018 marketing year and well ahead of the average 413,000t per year over the last five years. Globally, US soybean export sales to countries other than China are about 1.5mn t ahead of year-prior levels as of the week ended 19 February. The ASA also supports the renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement later this year, Metzger said. Mexico is the second-largest buyer of US soybeans, making the preservation of free trade between the US and Mexico a key factor for US exports. The competitiveness of US soybeans in export markets could be adversely impacted by increased domestic demand and a subsequent rally in prices. Without an increase in supply, there is some concern that more soybeans could be used for domestic crush and tighten export opportunities, Sutter said. But US soybean supplies could get a boost in the coming year, as soybean acres are expected to rise for the upcoming crop. Larger domestic production would leave ample soybeans for both domestic use and exports, particularly as China is expected to increase soybean purchasing to 25mn t for 2026-27 . By Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s economic growth steady at 1.8pc in 4Q
Brazil’s economic growth steady at 1.8pc in 4Q
Sao Paulo, 3 March (Argus) — Brazil's economic growth held steady at a 1.8pc annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, as growth in agriculture and services was partly offset by slowing industrial activity, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) held unchanged in the latest quarter from 1.8pc in the third quarter of 2024, in line with analysts' estimates in a Trading Economics survey. That followed 2.4pc growth in the second quarter. For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 and 3.2pc in 2023, IBGE data show. Brazil's central bank has kept its target interest rate stable at 15pc since June 2025 . The agriculture sector accelerated to 12.1pc growth in the fourth quarter from 10.1pc in the third quarter, following positive annual contributions from orange, wheat and tobacco throughout 2025, IBGE said. As for the industrial sector, output eased to 0.6pc growth after a 1.7pc gain in the third quarter, mostly pushed down by construction despite gains in extractive, electricity, gas and waste management. Spending on services rose by an annual 2pc in the quarter, up from 1.2pc in the third quarter. Household spending accelerated to a 1pc annual pace in the fourth quarter, up from 0.4pc in the previous quarter. A favorable job market and expanding credit from federal programs aimed at low-income families prompted the result, IBGE said. Government spending accelerated to a 3.6pc pace from 1.8pc a quarter earlier. Exports grew by 14pc after a 7.2pc gain in the previous quarter , driven by agriculture, crude and metals. Imports, which subtract from growth, fell by 0.3pc after a 2.2pc increase in the third quarter, pushed down by chemical products machinery and crude, IBGE said. Gross fixed capital formation — which measures how much companies increase their capital goods — fell by 3.1pc in the quarter after a 2.3pc annual gain in the third quarter. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US-Iran conflict disrupts Australian beef trade
US-Iran conflict disrupts Australian beef trade
Dalby, 3 March (Argus) — Escalating conflict in the Middle East is increasing freight risks and adding cost uncertainty for exports of Australian chilled and frozen beef, as air and container lines divert away from the region, according to trade sources and industry advisories. The duration of the conflict will dictate the scale of disruption, Australian exporters said. Chilled beef transported by air can typically remain in refrigerated storage at distribution centres for more than a week before alternative arrangements are required. Meanwhile, frozen beef in containers can be held for longer periods. But the final destination of any product already in transit will depend on shipping lines' willingness to unload at Middle Eastern ports. Some Australian processors have received returned consignments from regional distribution centres as a temporary measure while logistics providers assess the evolving situation. The Middle East is a long-standing market for halal-certified chilled and frozen beef from Australia, which supplies retail, hospitality and food service sectors in the region. Saudi Arabia remained the largest destination for frozen beef, at about 13,300t in 2025, slightly below levels a year earlier, following a 53pc increase in 2024. Beef shipments to the UAE reached 14,375t carcass weight in 2025, up by 35pc on the year after a 17pc rise in 2024. Dubai is the core regional hub for premium chilled Australian grainfed beef, exporters said. This is supported by strong tourism flows and high-end retail demand. Australia's position has been supported by the Australia–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which was signed in November 2024. Tariffs on Australian red meat were removed under the agreement. Broader economic effects from the conflict, including oil price movements, inflation pressure and potential currency volatility, could influence medium-term protein purchasing patterns, market analysts said. Meanwhile, competition from Brazil remains a key risk, with South American suppliers expanding shipments into Gulf markets, Australian exporters said. Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East were creating "complexities for Australian meat exporters with product in transit", Australian Meat Industry Council (AMIC) chief executive Tim Ryan said. The closure of key shipping lanes and airspace adds to the uncertainty, he said. The situation was dynamic and likely to have "flow on effects to global logistics", he added. "Australian meat exporters are managing the situation to the best of their ability," Ryan said, noting the industry's established record of adapting during challenging conditions. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US-Iran conflict slows agricultural flows into Gulf
US-Iran conflict slows agricultural flows into Gulf
London, 2 March (Argus) — Dry bulk carriers with agricultural goods have held off transiting the strait of Hormuz since the escalation of US-Iran conflict over the weekend, with some shippers exploring the option to discharge ahead of the transit. The 82,188dwt Locarno , loaded with Argentinian barley, was scheduled to arrive at Bandar Imam Khomeini on 4 March, but has slowed significantly and held offshore just before reaching the strait on 1 March, according to shiptracking data from Kpler. Similarly, the 77,834dwt New Horizon with a corn cargo from Ukraine has also stopped moving since 25 February. Flows into other countries in the Mideast Gulf have also slowed. The 77,079dwt Kypros Sky , having loaded a wheat cargo from Port Lincoln in Australia, diverted on the afternoon of 1 March offshore south India, Kpler data show. The vessel was scheduled to arrive at Umm Qasr port in Iraq on 8 March. Some shippers are considering options to unload their cargoes in Oman and seek other land routes in the region to avoid the transit via the strait of Hormuz, according to market participants. But it remains uncertain how viable the option is for deliveries to countries like Kuwait or Iraq. Immediate disruption to short-term deliveries may be capped for Saudi Arabia, at least based on its recent wheat tenders. State importer GFSA is not scheduled to receive wheat deliveries to Dammam port in the Gulf until the second half of April , according to its recent tenders. Its wheat cargoes via tenders would arrive in Jeddah and Yanbu in the Red Sea in March. Smaller importers in the region, on the other hand, are poised to see a total halt of agricultural imports in the short term. Kuwait has maintained its import pace for wheat, corn and barley so far this marketing year, compared with a year earlier, with only a slight drop in wheat receipts. The country has only imported 200,789t of wheat in July 2025–January 2026, down from 269,926t a year earlier, according to customs data. Some cargoes destined for the Mideast Gulf have also continued their journeys when they remain far from the strait. The 81,838 dwt Astrea , loaded with a wheat cargo from Port Giles in Australia, is still midway through the Indian Ocean and is scheduled to arrive at Umm Qasr port on 10 March. The 60,200dwt Genius Sw , carrying Argentinian corn, also continued its transit around the Cape of Good Hope. The vessel is still scheduled to arrive at Fujairah on 20 March, according to its AIS signal update today. By Xiaoyi Deng Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.