• 14 June 2024
  • Market: Agriculture

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15/09/26

France looks to barley to replace lost rapeseed areas

France looks to barley to replace lost rapeseed areas

Paris, 15 September (Argus) — French farmers could devote greater areas to winter barley planting at the expense of rapeseed for the 2027 crop, but dry weather and a fall in barley prices against wheat could still cap the rise. Argus expects EU rapeseed areas to fall by around 5pc on the year for the 2027 crop as dry soil conditions hamper fieldwork right up to the end of the crop's optimal planting window in mid-September, with France set for one of the sharpest declines. There is the potential for areas to fall even further given that dry weather is forecast to continue over the next two weeks, limiting the scope for the planting pace to recover before it becomes too late and farmers turn to other crops. The space left vacant by rapeseed could benefit the growing of winter barley, particularly if rainfall returns ahead of the main barley planting window running from late September to early November. In current conditions, low soil moisture across large parts of France is likely to discourage attempts to start planting barley ahead of time, even as an early corn harvest this year — currently under way — frees up fields for winter grains planting earlier than usual. If weather turns favourable, current projections point to European barley acreages for the 2026-27 (July-June) marketing year at close to a record high. Argus estimates EU winter barley areas at 5.42mn hectares for the 2027 crop, up from 5.30mn ha a year earlier and the highest in at least 15 years. In France alone, areas are projected at 1.4mn ha, the highest since 2016-17. But price signals have become less supportive in recent weeks as planting decisions are finalised. Between mid-October 2025 and early March 2026, French feed barley delivered to Rouen from the 2025 harvest regularly traded at parity with wheat, or even at a premium, which at times exceeded €10/t. Support for prices continued for the 2026 crop, at least while it was still in the ground. Between early May and late June this year, feed barley delivered to Rouen traded at discounts of only €5-10/t to wheat, significantly narrower than the typical spread between the crops. Support for barley prices relative to wheat has since eroded. Feed barley prices failed to fully track the recovery in Euronext wheat futures of the past two months, with this year's French feed barley crop last trading at around €18/t below the March futures contract, for delivery to Rouen in January-March. Whether barley prices regain ground against wheat in the coming weeks could prove decisive for farmers' winter planting decisions. Against this backdrop, there is little incentive for farmers to begin marketing their 2027 barley crop ahead of time. Dry weather remains a key source of uncertainty, because if winter barley areas fail to match up to their near-record potential, this could support prices later in the season. Furthermore, weaker corn output in France this year means that the domestic livestock sector is at risk of running out of supply long before next year's corn harvest can begin, regardless of how much corn farmers plant next spring, potentially creating extra demand for the 2027 barley crop straight off the harvest in June-July. Wheat presents a different picture, with some producers already showing interest in forward sales and beginning to lock in prices for part of their 2027 wheat crop. By Antoine Guyon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU parliament rejects CBAM suspension clause: Update


15/09/26
News
15/09/26

EU parliament rejects CBAM suspension clause: Update

Adds deletion of Paris agreement carbon credits clause Brussels, 15 September (Argus) — The European Parliament today confirmed its rejection of a proposed new Article 27a to the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that would have allowed the temporary suspension of the scheme for certain products. At the same time, they backed extending the CBAM to more than 180 additional steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products, including structures, pipes, tubes and components. Parliament's environment committee had already voted in July to extend the CBAM to a long list of downstream goods containing steel or aluminium. "This Article [27a] prevents investments in technologies of the future and punishes those that have already moved ahead," parliament's centre-left S&D draftsman Mohammed Chahim said. "The same people that are sceptical of the CBAM come to me and ask whether certain CN codes can be added to the list," he said. Chahim said parliament had rejected what he described as a "disguised" subsidy for foreign fertilizers through Article 27a. Instead, support for affected sectors in serious and unforeseen circumstances should come from CBAM revenues, he said. EU member states agreed on their CBAM revisions in June , supporting a similar expansion to downstream products while retaining a narrower version of Article 27a. Under the states' proposal, the CBAM could be suspended for certain products if import prices rose to 50pc above a 10-year average and remained at that level for six months. Argus analysis in June indicated that the CBAM was unlikely to be suspended for fertilizers under current market conditions if member states' proposed amendment was included in the final legislation. Only phosphate prices in some markets were above the threshold at the time. In a separate vote, parliament extended the list of products eligible for support under the temporary decarbonisation fund (TDF) to include urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate and other mineral or chemical fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Wheat and barley, excluding seed, as well as iron, steel, cement and aluminium products, also remain eligible. Parliament said MEPs want TDF support available from 2027 to 2029, rather than starting in 2028 as proposed by the European Commission. And they want downstream products that use CBAM-covered goods as inputs to be eligible for support from the fund. Parliament confirmed the environment committee's previous deletion of the clause enabling the commission to take into account carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement when calculating the carbon price paid abroad. Parliament also approved new anti-circumvention provisions requiring the commission to monitor patterns "indicative of artificial splitting of transactions or other circumvention strategies aimed at falling below the de minimis threshold set at 50 tonnes of net mass in the CBAM regulation". EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra urged parliament and member states to reach agreement "well before" year-end. "Without agreement, there is a risk that the downstream extension simply cannot enter into force on 1 January 2028 as planned," he said. The vote, which passed by 464 votes to 50 with 159 abstentions, clears the way for negotiations with member states on a final legal text. Governments continue to support a more limited safeguard clause that could trigger temporary CBAM suspensions for sectors facing crisis conditions. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Early Ukraine spring crop harvest lags 2025


14/09/26
News
14/09/26

Early Ukraine spring crop harvest lags 2025

Kyiv, 14 September (Argus) — Ukraine's spring crop harvests remained slower than a year earlier, while sunflower seed and soybean harvests made good progress this week. Ukraine's corn harvesting remained slow as of 14 September, preliminary agriculture ministry data show, with just 34,820 hectares (ha) cut, about 1pc of the forecast area, despite favourable weather. Farmers have been slow to start harvesting as a result of limited port operations and storage capacity with old crops. The country's average corn yields rose to 4.82 t/ha in the week ending 14 September from 3.59 t/ha a week earlier and 3.55 t/ha a year earlier. The Poltava region is showing good early yields, matching Argus ' virtual corn crop tour, with better conditions reported. Oilseed harvests advanced well on the week thanks to limited rains, with soybeans showing the biggest weekly progress. Both sunflower seed and soybean crops showed better initial yields because summer rains boosted soil moisture and temperatures stayed moderate during growth periods, unlike last season when sunflower was hit by drought. That said, production and yield figures are not yet representative for both oilseed crops. The soybean harvest in Ukraine started a week later this year than last. Farmers have cut 167,510ha, 11pc of the forecast area, as of 14 September. Ukraine's average soybean yields rose to 1.94 t/ha from 1.76 t/ha last week and 1.73 t/ha at the same point last year. Ukraine's sunflower harvest pace has lagged the past five seasons, starting two weeks later than the past two seasons. But the country's initial average sunflower yields have surged sharply above last year's drought-hit campaign, reaching 1.91 t/ha as of 14 September from 1.79 t/ha on average in 2025-26. Good soil moisture supported the yields. Major producing regions Kirovograd, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava made the biggest progress in sunflower seed harvests. The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Wasde report in September left Ukraine's sunflower seed, soybean and corn crop forecasts unchanged at 13mn t, 5mn t and 31.8mn t, respectively, leaving its corn outlook less optimistic than Argus ' forecast of 32.1mn t for 2026-27. Winter crop harvests are almost complete, with only small wheat areas left. The ministry confirmed record wheat yields at 4.94 t/ha, leading to a total wheat output at 24.92mn t from 5,04mn ha, or 98pc of the forecast. Ukraine has finished its barley and rapeseed harvests, with barley yields at a record 4.34 t/ha and rapeseed output at 3.83mn t. The agriculture ministry's preliminary data will be confirmed by the State Statistics Service in later reports. By Kateryna Mudriian Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US soy, corn sales robust to start 2026-27


11/09/26
News
11/09/26

US soy, corn sales robust to start 2026-27

Houston, 11 September (Argus) — US net export sales of both soybeans and corn for 2026-27 reached multi-year highs during the early days of the new marketing year that began 1 September, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Net soybean sales for 2026-27 totaled 2.64mn metric tonnes (t) during the week ended 3 September, the second-largest volume for the start of a marketing year and the most for the week since 2020. China led the new commitments, picking up another 1.22mn t, while Indonesia added 222,000t and Mexico 169,000t. Total 2026-27 soybean commitments rose to 18.9mn t, the most for the start of a marketing year since 2022. Net sales for 2025-26 were negative again during the week at -175,000t, lowering total commitments to 41.7mn t but remaining ahead of USDA expectations for 41.4mn t. For corn, net sales for the start of 2026-27 marketing year reached a record 1.93mn t. Mexico added 861,000t in corn commitments, while Japan and Colombia picked up 294,000t and 174,000t, respectively. Even with the large volume of sales for the week, total commitments for the marketing year reached just 16.4mn t, down from 22.6mn t for the same week last year. Net corn sales for 2025-26 totaled 79,800t during the week ended 3 September, pushing total commitments to 87mn t for the year. in line with the newly-revised USDA export estimate. Wheat US net wheat export sales totaled 194,000t during the week ended 3 September, down from 305,000t in the same week last year. The Philippines was the most active buyer, adding 88,000t during the week, while Ecuador and Mexico added 30,000t and 28,000t, respectively. Total wheat export commitments rose to 8.77mn t, equivalent to 42pc of USDA forecasts for the 2026-27 marketing year and slightly behind the five-year average sales pace of 45pc. By Joseph Crosby US corn export sales mn t US soybean export sales mn t US wheat export sales mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US inflation holds steady, energy rises in August


11/09/26
News
11/09/26

US inflation holds steady, energy rises in August

Houston, 11 September (Argus) — US headline inflation held steady in August while energy prices ticked up, maintaining pressure on the Federal Reserve for a likely rate hike next week as it battles to stem inflationary pressures uncorked by the Mideast Gulf war. The consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual 3.4pc pace in August, according to Labor Department data released today. That followed a 3.4pc pace in July that was down from 3.5pc in June. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, eased to a 2.4pc annual pace, compared with a 2.5pc rate in July. "A September rate hike is now very likely, but a tightening cycle looks unwarranted," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note after the report. "We think the most likely outcome is that September's rate hike will be a one-time tightening." Prior to the report, the CME FedWatch tool showed a greater than 70pc probability Federal Reserve policymakers will raise the target rate by a quarter point at its meeting on 16 September. The Fed has kept its target rate unchanged through five meetings this year amid mounting tariff and Gulf war uncertainty after lowering it three times late last year. The energy index rose by an annual 16.3pc in August, compared with 14.7pc in July. Energy commodities rose by 28pc in August compared with 24.7pc in July. Gasoline rose by 27.4pc on the year, up from 24.6pc the prior month. Fuel oil rose by 52pc following a 39.1pc gain in July. Piped gas services rose by 4.4pc on the year, following 4.3pc in July. The food index rose at an annual 2.7pc in August following a 3pc pace in July. Shelter rose at a 3pc pace, slowing from 3.2pc in July. Services less energy services, considered a core reading of service prices, was unchanged at a 3pc pace. New vehicle prices rose by 0.6pc in August on the year, compared with a 0.5pc rate in July, while used vehicles prices fell by 2.4pc in August compared with a 1.9pc decline in July. Medical care services rose at a 2.5pc annual rate in August compared with a 2.7pc pace in July. Transportation services rose by 2.4pc in August, slowing from 2.9pc. Airline fares rose by an annual 23pc in August, compared with 25.5pc the prior month. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4pc in August, after creeping up by 0.1pc in July, while the core index rose by 0.3pc for the month after a 0.2pc gain the month prior. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.