EU oilseeds overview: from oversupply to undersupply?
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Tight US organic corn supplies hinge on harvest
Tight US organic corn supplies hinge on harvest
Minneapolis, 2 October (Argus) — US organic corn buyers are monitoring yields for the ongoing harvest because carryover stocks are absent and feed demand has reached record levels, making future pricing highly sensitive to yields. Argus forecasted in July that the 2026-27 marketing year (September-August) began without any carryover stocks of organic corn after strong demand depleted the surplus in 2025-26. Because of the lack of old crop supplies, US consumers are eagerly waiting for the organic corn harvest to reach key production states in the corn belt and high plains. Domestic production is crucial, supplying over 80pc of the US market. However, key production states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska are experiencing worse drought conditions than last year, which could limit yields. Ohio and Indiana have suffered from excess moisture that also could reduce yields. Early harvests in the southeast US produced mixed results, with strong yields in Georgia and drought damage in North Carolina. Beginning supplies are forecast at 58.3mn bushels, up by just 0.6pc from a year earlier. Feed demand grew by 9pc in 2025-26 and is forecast to grow by another 5.7pc in 2026-27, driven by record organic layer flocks , strong US broiler and turkey slaughter , and further expansion. A new feed mill in southern Michigan will further increase demand. Farmers are reluctant to sell more of their crop, anticipating price increases and wanting to ensure they meet contract yields. Low yields could threaten future demand, as higher prices may limit growth. Imports offer limited relief, with volumes forecast to rise by only 6pc in 2026-27. Supply from Turkey, Argentina, and Romania faces geopolitical and other risks and tariffs, keeping prices high. Low yields will also threaten future demand, as strong pricing for organic corn could limit further growth or lead to lower demand if feed costs continue to erode margins. If yields are above expectations, farmers may sell more than expected to get ahead of any drops in price. Organic corn prices are expected to be tight even with an average harvest, with Argus forecasting the 2026-27 marketing year ending without any stocks to carry over into 2027-28. Imports offer limited relief Further increases in US organic corn imports could help replace some lost domestic production, but volumes will be limited and higher import values and transportation costs will support US pricing. Imports jumped by 59pc in 2025-26, primarily because of stronger imports from Turkey, but Argus forecasts only a further 6pc increase in 2026-27. Each additional percentage point increase translates to an additional 140,000 bushels, but a 1 percentage point loss in yields means a 581,000 bushel drop in production. Many suppliers to the US will have limited additional supplies to ship. The Argentinian organic corn harvest showed strong yields after heavy rains during the growing season, but a drop in planted acres cut production. Supply from Turkey and the wider Black Sea will face potential disruptions from the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which pushed up insurance and freight costs to move grain out of the region. Western Europe expects a lower corn harvest, so buyers in Europe may compete with US buyers for some corn supplies. Turkish corn imports could rise further if the US harvest comes in below expectations, but any additional imports from the region would face strong cost pressure and keep US prices higher. Argentina, Turkey, and Romania all pay tariffs to export organic corn to the US, which further increases the cost of importing. Further tariff action from the US government against organic corn suppliers, including Canada, would further support organic corn values. By Alexander Schultz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US renewable feedstocks demand sets another record
US renewable feedstocks demand sets another record
Houston, 30 September (Argus) — US renewable feedstocks demand for biofuels production rose to a fresh record in July on surging consumption of soybean oil and distillers corn oil, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released today. More than 4.05bn lb of renewable feedstocks were used to make biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in July, up from the prior record of nearly 3.87bn lb in June and up from just under 2.99bn lb a year earlier. July's daily demand of 130.6mn lb/d was 35pc greater than the 96.5mn lb/d usage rate in July 2025. Soybean oil consumption again accounted for most of July's gains, with demand rising by 52pc on the year to 1.69bn lb, or 54.4mn lb/d. Canola oil usage rose by 51pc from a year earlier to 330mn lb, or 10.6mn lb/d. Total waste feedstocks usage held above year-earlier levels, but beef tallow consumption by biofuel plants fell by 6.8pc on the year to 24.9mn lb/d in July. Demand for yellow grease, a category that includes used cooking oil, increased to 19.7mn lb/d, up by 45pc from a year earlier. White grease consumption in July rose on the year by 6.8pc to 1.52mn lb/d. US biofuel producers consumed 14.6mn lb/d of distillers corn oil in July, up by 22pc from 12mn lb/d a year earlier. inventories of US biodiesel and renewable diesel fell by 8.3pc from a year earlier to 8.4mn bl. Production capacity for renewable diesel and other biofuels rose in July by 4.8pc from year-earlier levels to about 4.97bn USG/yr. By Thompson Corpus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia's DSI tracks 154mn t of commodity exports
Indonesia's DSI tracks 154mn t of commodity exports
Bali, 29 September (Argus) — Indonesian state-owned entity DSI has monitored 154.1mn t of shipment data on its tracking platform since June, as part of the country's efforts to have oversight of key resources including coal, palm oil and ferrous alloys and mitigate under-invoicing. This amounts to an export value of $25.5bn over 1 June-24 September, according to an update by DSI's president director Luke Mahony at CT Asia 2026 in Bali, Indonesia on 29 September. Coal accounted for 93pc of the total export volume recorded by the company during that period, worth around $10.7bn, according to DSI data. Palm oil products accounted for 5pc of total export volume worth around $9.1bn, while around $5.7bn worth of ferrous alloys export data was recorded, accounting for 2pc of total shipment volume recorded, DSI data show. "Our interaction is going to be through a binary agreement with the seller. And we're working through and discussing with the producers what that model looks like. We are piloting and setting up a system and we are working very closely with the associations and the producers to make sure that this is a seamless transition and that people really understand how the system works," said Mahony at the conference. The DSI reiterated its position as an intermediary with no change to ownership, commercial negotiation and physical flows. It is also starting a committee of experts to form a methodology to verify market information. It has invited producers, exporters, international buyers, traders and industry associations to form the committee and form a methodology to be launched in "two to three weeks", said Mahony. "The role of this committee is to provide oversight, ensure that the methodology is robust for its purpose and also to review changes. The concept is straightforward. Compare the declared parameters with a DSI reference. Built from appropriate market indices and legitimate commercial adjustment factors," he said. Mahony said that it is possible for the DSI to extend the platform to monitor more commodities beyond the three resources, if implementation is successful. He also said that the DSI's role to provide visibility and flag and identify any anomalies that could be signs of under-invoicing and transfer pricing. "A flag doesn't mean anything's wrong. We will ask questions on any concerns we have. And then ultimately, it'll be up to the regulators to do the investigation," he said. By Nadhir Mokhtar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pakistan’s TCP receives dozen offers in wheat tender
Pakistan’s TCP receives dozen offers in wheat tender
London, 28 September (Argus) — Pakistani state importer TCP has received offers for November-loading wheat cargoes as part of its 185,000t buy tender that closed on Monday. Cargoes were offered at $339.36-354.83/t cfr Karachi by 12 trading firms, with Bunge making the lowest-price offer, according to market participants ( see table ). TCP sought wheat for shipment in the first half of November for arrival no later than 15 December. The tender was issued after TCP booked just 365,000t of its requested 750,000t in a separate tender earlier this month. The most competitive price in this tender is $9.47/t below the procurement price in Pakistan's 16 September tender, with trading firms asked to drop their offers in line with the lowest price received in the previous line-up. TCP is requesting wheat with a minimum 10pc protein content, and no specifications for dough strength (W). French wheat could become competitive this time round on lower Paris-listed milling wheat futures in the past week. November-shipping French 11pc wheat has fallen steadily in line with the underlying contract to $271/t fob Rouen on 25 September, while Romanian-Bulgarian wheat remains another likely origin, particularly as sellers continue to seek outlets for heavy supplies of lower-protein, lower-W wheat at Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB). By Megan Evans Grains, oilseeds and veg oils tenders Buyer Issued Closes Status Cargo Shipment/delivery Price Seller Notes Jordan's MIT 17-Sep 30-Sep Open 100,000-120,000t feed barley January-February 2027 cfr Aqaba Pakistan's TCP 19-Sep 28-Sep Closed 185,000t milling wheat 1-15 November cfr Karachi/Gwadar Tunisia's ODC 22-Sep 23-Sep Closed 125,000t milling wheat 10 Nov - 15 Dec $311.72-314.23/t Buildcom, Soufflet cfr Tunisia's ODC 22-Sep 23-Sep Closed 75,000t feed barley Nov $304.23-307.62/t Soufflet, Al Ghurair, Bunge cfr Jordan's MIT 16-Sep 22-Sep Closed 60,000t milling wheat 1h November $332/t Buildcom cfr Aqaba Pakistan's TCP 8-Sep 16-Sep Closed 365,000t milling wheat 11-30 October 349 Agrocorp, Ameropa, Aston, Bunge, CHS, Falcon Bridge, LDC cfr Karachi/Gwadar Offers in TCP's 28 Sep milling wheat tender Trading firm Volume (t) Cfr Karachi price ($/t) Agrocorp 60,000 343.74 Al Ghurair 60,000 349.00 Ameropa 60,000 343.47 Aston 60,000 354.83 Bunge 60,000 339.36 CHS 60,000 345.00 Falconbridge 60,000 347.49 LDC 120,000 346.50 Mera 120,000 346.19 Olam 60,000 341.88 Saif 60,000 350.53 Soufflet 120,000 354.82 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.