The recent announcement of funding for 47 strategic project, in line with the EU’s CO2 targets for carmakers in force this year, suggests progress. But after the EU’s tariffs on Chinese EVs, and the US waging its own trade war with China, is Europe’s road to electrification faltering?
Join the Argus Battery Materials team — editor Tom Kavanagh, reporter Chris Welch and analyst Dylan Khoo — in discussing what lies ahead in this fast-evolving market.
Key topics covered:
- The EU’s €22.5bn for 47 critical minerals projects
- China’s investments in Europe’s EV supply chain
- What might a US-China trade war mean for Europe?
- Will the EU meet its CO2 targets for 2035?
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EVs to displace 10mn b/d of oil by 2035: IEA
EVs to displace 10mn b/d of oil by 2035: IEA
Sao Paulo, 13 November (Argus) — Growing EV sales are set to displace 10mn b/d of oil by 2035 under the International Energy Association's (IEA) stated policies scenario (STEPS) in its latest World Energy Outlook report — a hypothetical scenario based on announced but not yet implemented policies. The IEA expects the global sales share of electric vehicles to rise from 25pc in 2025 to over 50pc in 2035, driven by growing sales in emerging markets such as Asia Pacific — Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam — and Brazil and steady demand in China and Europe. The STEPS scenario accounts for EV sales of all types, including cars, motorbikes, buses and trucks. This will weigh on demand for fossil fuels, which will peak in 2030 . Around 10mn b/d of oil will be displaced globally by 2035. Oil demand will further decrease as hybrid technologies and biofuels should become more prevalent in 2035, saving an additional 4.9mn b/d, the agency said. Global EV demand set to rise six-fold by 2035 The IEA expects that the general auto market will grow to 1.6bn units in 2026 from 1.4bn units in 2025, with electric vehicles accounting for over 840mn — around 52.5pc — within the next 10 years. EVs account for about one in four cars sold nowadays, with total sales expected to reach 20mn units by year's end, according to the IEA. China alone is on track to sell 14mn EVs in 2025, and Chinese automakers are boosting previously declining EV sales in Europe by introducing 10 new affordable models priced under €25,000 ($29,000), the IEA said. The same is happening in emerging markets such as Brazil, Costa Rica, Uruguay and Colombia, where competitively priced Chinese EVs are reshaping the auto market. Chinese EVs accounted for 85pc of all electric vehicles sold in Brazil in 2024 — and the country doubled its EV sales from a year prior. Sales of electric two and three-wheelers, such as motorcycles and rickshaws, are driving EV sales in Asian markets such as India and southeast Asia. In Vietnam, where these vehicles are particularly popular, electric models now account for over 40pc of total auto sales. These trends are offsetting weakening EV demand from the US, led by Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) , which cuts several tax and monetary benefits surrounding EV sales and the production of its feedstocks. Sales of electric vehicles fell by 4pc in the first half of 2025, according to the IEA. The OBBBA prompted the agency to revise its US EV sales forecast, cutting its 2035 demand projections for the region by 60pc compared to its 2024 report. At the time, the IEA forecast that US consumers would purchase 11mn EV units by 2035, meaning it now sees only 4.4mn vehicles sold in the same period. Comparatively, this year's STEPS scenario sees around 20pc more EVs on the road in emerging markets and developing economies outside China in 2035 compared with the 2024 STEPS, reflecting the recent strong sales growth. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rio Tinto halts flagship Li project in Serbia
Rio Tinto halts flagship Li project in Serbia
London, 13 November (Argus) — Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto is indefinitely suspending development of Jadar, its flagship European lithium project in Serbia, as part of cost-cutting measures and in line with its new chief executive's initiatives to streamline operations. Rio instead will prioritize other shorter-term opportunities and reduce costs, according to reports confirmed by the company, which no longer could justify the required expenses and resource allocation given delays the permitting process. The company has been trying to commission the project since its discovery in 2004. It signed a memorandum of understanding with the Serbian government in 2017 to advance it, but was stopped by permitting issues and staunch opposition by local communities. Jadar, wholly owned by Rio Tinto, is one of the largest confirmed greenfield lithium resources in the world at 16.6mn metric tonnes (t) of lithium-borate ore with an average grade of 1.8pc lithium oxide, which is high compared with similar resources. Rio Tinto had committed $2.4bn to the project. Some market participants have long expressed skepticism over Jadar's chances. "I never believed it would happen for many reasons, from technical to social, and licensing perspectives," one market source told Argus . "Rio was basically losing money every year keeping it, so stopping it makes sense," said another one. The move comes less than three months after the company announced a global restructure of its operations under the guidance of newly appointed chief executive Simon Trott. Lithium is one of Rio Tinto's main divisions after the restructure. Earlier this year, the company finalized the $6.7bn acquisition of Arcadium Lithium , Argentina's largest producer. Rio is also primed to be one of Chile's largest lithium producers after securing two major mining concessions. By Chris Welch and Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop: Critical minerals discussions gain momentum
Cop: Critical minerals discussions gain momentum
Belem, 13 November (Argus) — Conversations on the importance of critical minerals to a just energy transition have gained momentum at the UN Cop 30 climate summit, a delegate told Argus . The UK has proposed a draft text to include critical minerals — such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements — in the supply chain of a just energy transition, Melissa Marengo, a senior program officer at New York-based environmental group Natural Resource Governance Institute, said. The text has been backed so far by the EU, Australia and a plethora of African nations. Tanzania stands out as a champion on the topic, she said. Mention of critical minerals and recommendations around their sustainable development in a Cop outcome could mark the "change of a paradigm" in how the world uses critical minerals, Marengo said. "Everyone knows we will need to set rules [to] access critical minerals", she added. A UN-convened panel last year outlined principles and recommendations on a sustainable and equitable critical minerals industry. Zimbabwe, Africa's top lithium producer, included minerals governance in its national position for Cop 30. South Africa, Uganda, and Burkina Faso — speaking on behalf of the group of least developed countries — echoed the call to integrate minerals into just transition discussions and the Cop 30 outcome. Brazil has also said it supports transparency, combatting illegal mining and corruption and protections for human rights and the environment. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had already set the stage for the conversations at last week's world leaders' summit, held just ahead of Cop 30. "We cannot discuss the energy transition without addressing critical minerals, which are essential for the production of batteries, solar panels, and energy systems", he said during a session on energy transition during the leaders' climate summit. Although the interest from developed ‘Global North' countries certainly stems from economic interests, having them mention the topic in the first days of Cop 30 is a win and "shows the minerals issue is now on track to be reflected in Cop 30 outcomes", Marengo said. Other countries, including Chile and Colombia, have been working on this topic in parallel to Cop 30. Chile is the world's foremost copper producer and the second-biggest lithium producer. Colombia plans to call for a global accountability framework on mining impacts. China, a key producer of solar panels and batteries, has not made any formal comments on the topic yet at Cop 30 but has been taking informal meetings in the matter, Marengo said. China is "the dominant refiner" for most critical minerals, "holding an average market share of around 70pc", energy watchdog the IEA said in May. China is more focused on the phase out of fossil fuels, one of the more prominent topics at Cop 30, Marengo said. And getting China on board of a text mentioning critical minerals might not be an easy task, she added, given its manufacturing industries. But she hopes any final text will include the UN guidelines. "It sets the very minimum considerations that should be taken when you want to extract minerals", she said. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Cr supply must diversify — Worldstainless
Q&A: Cr supply must diversify — Worldstainless
London, 12 November (Argus) — Worldstainless is a stainless steel industry body and subsidiary of the World Steel Association (worldsteel), which represents producers comprising 85pc of global steel production and national and regional steel industry associations worldwide. Argus spoke to Worldstainless Secretary-General Tim Collins on the sidelines of the International Chromium Development Association conference about stainless steel growth and the importance of secure raw materials supply, particularly for chrome metal. What are you expecting for steel supply and demand in 2025? From a demand perspective, we know that (global) demand will remain a bit on the weak side, but we are expecting to see a small level of growth after the first quarter of 2026. We expect demand to grow by 2pc to 2.5pc, but it will be polarised. There will be certain sectors where movement is slower, such as nuclear energy and other renewable energies. But in other areas, people are getting frustrated with non-metallic materials, particularly composites and plastic base, so there is an opportunity for stainless growth as people switch material-buying decisions. We are looking further down the supply chain. Why is diversified chromium production important? Chromium is important to us because it's what makes stainless steel stainless. We are a growing industry, with 5pc growth year on year in terms of ferro-chrome consumption. That pattern has been in place since 1980. We need a geographically balanced production platform for ferro-chrome. If regions don't have domestic or near domestic ferro-chrome production, that is not good for the overall stainless industry. What we don't want is an ultimate monopoly. The stainless industry wants a more diversified production landscape, otherwise we end up carrying huge stocks, which nobody wants. Why is improved scrap recycling important? If you look at average global production levels for stainless steels, the recycled content stands at 48pc on average, although that is polarised by region. Approximately half of the chrome we need comes from recycled content. But we lose about 600,000t of chromium contained in scrap to the low-alloy steel industry. If we could capture that and recycle that into new stainless steels, that would drop the current average emissions (for stainless steel output) by 10pc. That's an improvement that is hard to do by means of technological production. What other raw materials are a priority? When you look at the big three inputs for stainless steels, you're looking at chromium, nickel and molybdenum. From an emissions perspective, nickel is the worst contributor to the overall stainless steel cradle to gate emissions. We need the nickel industry to move faster. Molybdenum is one of the other important elements for us, and molybdenum use will grow, but we have to do more to promote the molybdenum-containing steels. That is where you get the benefits in structural applications. As we look to enter other application sectors, molybdenum becomes increasingly important. What stainless steel end-markets could grow in the near term? The area that is interesting for us is infrastructure. We now have a number of showcase projects that have used stainless in a selective way in large building projects, which eliminated future maintenance needs. You only have to replace 10-12pc of traditional structural steels with stainless once you understand where corrosion is likely to occur. If you replace structural steels for stainless, you've got a product that will stand the test of time and require much less maintenance interventions, and another benefit is that you drop the emissions in the operational phase. The last benefit of stainless structural steels is that you need less concrete in structures. How has recent US policy impacted stainless steel? I have seen changes in US policies for materials over the course of my career, and this has been different in that Donald Trump has been much more direct. Previous administrations have not been so fast to act, and it has been a bit more subtle. But I think we get to a point where everything is okay. When you look at the big producers of stainless steel in the US — Acerinox, Aperam and Outokumpu — they're responsible for most of the market demand and are managing well. What is interesting about the three big players is that their facilities are fairly modern, whereas decades ago in the US their facilities were older and not so competitive or efficient. Having modern, more efficient plants helps without a doubt. There is still room for niche players to ship material in because not all products can be produced in the US domestically. The one concern I have for the US is that if you look at consumption of stainless per capita, the US lags the leading countries in the world by a long way. Countries such as China have consumption of 20-25kg per capita, whereas for the US, consumption is in the single-digit figures. The US has created what I call the throwaway society, so the alignment to resilient materials is not as strong. By Maeve Flaherty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.